Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Grenada: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Grenada's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.85 over 12 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -22.35 | 2025 (1.4bn) |
Latest observed-22.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -24.73 | -17.15 | -30 | -26.67 – -22.79 |
| 2028 | -27.99 | -14.87 | -30 | -30 – -23.97 |
| 2030 | -30 | -13.06 | -30 | -30 – -24.14 |
| 2035 | -30 | -6.04 | -30 | -30 – -20.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-23.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.93typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.3bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2028 | 1.6bn | 1.9bn | 1.3bn | 1.5bn – 1.7bn |
| 2030 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.3bn | 1.5bn – 1.9bn |
| 2035 | 1.9bn | 2.5bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 2.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±92.3mtypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.1 | 12 | -8.95 | 2.32 – 7.88 |
| 2028 | 6.79 | 12 | -10 | 1.79 – 11.79 |
| 2030 | 8.48 | 12 | -10 | 1.76 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 1.54 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.71· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2typical miss · 1 realized · 31% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.4k | 14.1k | 11k | 12k – 12.8k |
| 2028 | 13.3k | 16.1k | 10.9k | 12.3k – 14.3k |
| 2030 | 14.2k | 17.8k | 11k | 12.6k – 15.8k |
| 2035 | 16.3k | 21.4k | 11.9k | 12.9k – 19.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±856.8typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.31 | 88.16 | 47.56 | 65.3 – 73.32 |
| 2028 | 69.12 | 101.77 | 31.45 | 60.78 – 77.46 |
| 2030 | 68.93 | 111.08 | 20.3 | 56.93 – 80.93 |
| 2035 | 68.47 | 128.08 | 0 | 48.34 – 88.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead66.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.51typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.55 | 3.14 | -2.23 | -0.04 – 1.14 |
| 2028 | -0.12 | 4.37 | -4.93 | -1.16 – 0.92 |
| 2030 | -0.79 | 5.01 | -5 | -2.15 – 0.58 |
| 2035 | -2.45 | 5.75 | -5 | -4.66 – -0.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.8· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.15typical miss · 1 realized · 68% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed117.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 117.3k | 122.8k | 112.1k | 113.6k – 120.9k |
| 2028 | 117.4k | 122.9k | 112.2k | 108.7k – 126k |
| 2030 | 117.5k | 123k | 112.3k | 104.1k – 130.8k |
| 2035 | 117.7k | 123.3k | 112.6k | 93.3k – 142.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead117.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±251.42typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed408.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 423.7m | 471.3m | 376.1m | 409.6m – 437.8m |
| 2028 | 463m | 545.4m | 380.6m | 428.2m – 497.9m |
| 2030 | 502.3m | 608.7m | 395.9m | 445.3m – 559.4m |
| 2035 | 600.6m | 751.1m | 450.1m | 476m – 725.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead432.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.37 | 5.95 | 2.79 | 4.06 – 4.68 |
| 2028 | 4.39 | 7.12 | 1.66 | 3.76 – 5.02 |
| 2030 | 4.4 | 7.93 | 0.87 | 3.51 – 5.29 |
| 2035 | 4.41 | 9.4 | 0 | 2.94 – 5.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed408.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 423.7m | 471.3m | 376.1m | 409.6m – 437.8m |
| 2028 | 463m | 545.4m | 380.6m | 428.2m – 497.9m |
| 2030 | 502.3m | 608.7m | 395.9m | 445.3m – 559.4m |
| 2035 | 600.6m | 751.1m | 450.1m | 476m – 725.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead432.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GRD · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 15.7849 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.784 over 11 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4bn | 2025 (-23.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 849096710.4434 + -25283779.7327·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.576 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 99.47 | 2023 (1.3bn) |
| 2027 | 100.09 | 2024 (1.4bn) |
| 2028 | 102.98 | 2025 (1.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 43.4042 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.501 over 48 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.01 | 2025 (1.4bn) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 7.8075 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GRD?indicator= · API docs
