Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Grenada: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Grenada's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.82 over 13 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -21.31 | 2026 (1.5bn) |
Latest observed-18.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -19.43 | -11.33 | -27.53 | -21.4 – -17.47 |
| 2029 | -21.7 | -7.67 | -30 | -25.6 – -17.8 |
| 2031 | -23.97 | -5.86 | -30 | -29.58 – -18.35 |
| 2036 | -29.63 | -4.02 | -30 | -30 – -19.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-18.73· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.5bn | 1.7bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.6bn |
| 2029 | 1.6bn | 2bn | 1.3bn | 1.5bn – 1.7bn |
| 2031 | 1.7bn | 2.2bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.9bn |
| 2036 | 2bn | 2.6bn | 1.5bn | 1.6bn – 2.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.19 | 7.82 | -0.83 | 2.36 – 4.01 |
| 2029 | 3.21 | 11.24 | -3.74 | 1.72 – 4.71 |
| 2031 | 3.24 | 12 | -5.74 | 1.25 – 5.23 |
| 2036 | 3.3 | 12 | -9.4 | 0.33 – 6.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13k | 14.7k | 11.6k | 12.6k – 13.4k |
| 2029 | 13.9k | 16.7k | 11.5k | 12.9k – 14.9k |
| 2031 | 14.8k | 18.5k | 11.6k | 13.1k – 16.5k |
| 2036 | 17k | 22.2k | 12.5k | 13.5k – 20.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.1k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 69.12 | 86.9 | 48.6 | 65.28 – 72.96 |
| 2029 | 69.36 | 100.16 | 33.82 | 61.29 – 77.43 |
| 2031 | 69.6 | 109.36 | 23.72 | 57.91 – 81.28 |
| 2036 | 70.19 | 126.42 | 5.31 | 50.31 – 90.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead69.19· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.66 | 3.72 | -0.55 | 1.17 – 2.14 |
| 2029 | 2.62 | 6.19 | -1.2 | 1.71 – 3.54 |
| 2031 | 3.59 | 8.2 | -1.35 | 2.28 – 4.9 |
| 2036 | 6 | 12.52 | -0.98 | 3.6 – 8.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.29· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed117.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 116.9k | 122.4k | 111.8k | 113.3k – 120.5k |
| 2029 | 116.6k | 122.1k | 111.5k | 108k – 125.2k |
| 2031 | 116.3k | 121.7k | 111.2k | 103.1k – 129.5k |
| 2036 | 115.4k | 120.9k | 110.4k | 91.5k – 139.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead117.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed408.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 423.7m | 471.3m | 376.1m | 409.6m – 437.8m |
| 2028 | 463m | 545.4m | 380.6m | 428.2m – 497.9m |
| 2030 | 502.3m | 608.7m | 395.9m | 445.3m – 559.4m |
| 2035 | 600.6m | 751.1m | 450.1m | 476m – 725.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead432.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.37 | 5.95 | 2.79 | 4.06 – 4.68 |
| 2028 | 4.39 | 7.12 | 1.66 | 3.76 – 5.02 |
| 2030 | 4.4 | 7.93 | 0.87 | 3.51 – 5.29 |
| 2035 | 4.41 | 9.4 | 0 | 2.94 – 5.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed408.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 423.7m | 471.3m | 376.1m | 409.6m – 437.8m |
| 2028 | 463m | 545.4m | 380.6m | 428.2m – 497.9m |
| 2030 | 502.3m | 608.7m | 395.9m | 445.3m – 559.4m |
| 2035 | 600.6m | 751.1m | 450.1m | 476m – 725.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead432.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GRD · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 9.5856 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.806 over 11 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.3bn | 2025 (-17.8) |
| 2028 | 1.4bn | 2026 (-18.3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 866761026.1221 + -27136291.3914·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.543 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 96.28 | 2024 (1.4bn) |
| 2028 | 98.85 | 2025 (1.4bn) |
| 2029 | 101.19 | 2026 (1.5bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 45.943 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GRD?indicator= · API docs
