Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Guatemala: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Guatemala's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.954 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 88.5bn | 2023 (27.2) |
Latest observed3.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.97 | 8.49 | 1.44 | 4.17 – 5.77 |
| 2028 | 5.5 | 11.61 | -0.61 | 3.99 – 7.01 |
| 2030 | 6.03 | 13.92 | -1.86 | 3.94 – 8.13 |
| 2035 | 7.37 | 18.52 | -3.79 | 3.91 – 10.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.37typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.26 | 17.83 | 13.04 | 14.65 – 15.87 |
| 2028 | 14.67 | 19.12 | 10.82 | 13.34 – 16.01 |
| 2030 | 14.08 | 19.82 | 9.11 | 12.14 – 16.03 |
| 2035 | 12.61 | 20.72 | 5.58 | 9.43 – 15.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.09typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed123.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 130bn | 136.9bn | 124bn | 126bn – 134bn |
| 2028 | 146.9bn | 158.9bn | 136.6bn | 136.1bn – 157.8bn |
| 2030 | 163.9bn | 179.3bn | 150.5bn | 145.3bn – 182.5bn |
| 2035 | 206.2bn | 228bn | 187.4bn | 163.4bn – 249bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead140.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.3bntypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.66 | 12 | -3.68 | 2.98 – 6.34 |
| 2028 | 5.49 | 12 | -8.96 | 2.45 – 8.53 |
| 2030 | 6.32 | 12 | -10 | 2.23 – 10.42 |
| 2035 | 8.4 | 12 | -10 | 1.98 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.66typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.9k | 7.3k | 6.6k | 6.7k – 7.1k |
| 2028 | 7.7k | 8.3k | 7.1k | 7.1k – 8.2k |
| 2030 | 8.4k | 9.2k | 7.7k | 7.5k – 9.4k |
| 2035 | 10.3k | 11.5k | 9.3k | 8.2k – 12.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±86.09typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.92 | 30.5 | 22.78 | 25.93 – 27.9 |
| 2028 | 27.35 | 33.56 | 20.18 | 25.08 – 29.61 |
| 2030 | 27.78 | 35.8 | 18.52 | 24.32 – 31.23 |
| 2035 | 28.85 | 40.19 | 15.76 | 22.49 – 35.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.58typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.65 | 38.52 | 24.77 | 30.09 – 33.21 |
| 2028 | 33.01 | 44.92 | 21.1 | 29.6 – 36.41 |
| 2030 | 34.37 | 49.74 | 18.99 | 29.26 – 39.47 |
| 2035 | 37.76 | 59.51 | 16.02 | 28.39 – 47.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.21· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.33typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.23 | 5.38 | -3.21 | 0.29 – 2.17 |
| 2028 | -0.7 | 6.48 | -5 | -2.34 – 0.94 |
| 2030 | -2.64 | 6.64 | -5 | -4.91 – -0.37 |
| 2035 | -5 | 8.12 | -5 | -5 – -1.29 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.77typical miss · 1 realized · 59% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.8 | 18.86 | 15.02 | 16.24 – 17.37 |
| 2028 | 17.17 | 20.72 | 14.08 | 15.83 – 18.5 |
| 2030 | 17.53 | 22.12 | 13.54 | 15.47 – 19.58 |
| 2035 | 18.43 | 24.92 | 12.8 | 14.55 – 22.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.83· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.47typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.6m | 19.5m | 17.8m | 18m – 19.2m |
| 2028 | 18.9m | 19.8m | 18.1m | 17.5m – 20.3m |
| 2030 | 19.2m | 20.1m | 18.4m | 17.1m – 21.4m |
| 2035 | 20m | 21m | 19.1m | 15.9m – 24.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±334.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.21 | 13.01 | -7.65 | -0.29 – 2.7 |
| 2028 | -0.37 | 15 | -10 | -2.98 – 2.23 |
| 2030 | -1.96 | 15 | -10 | -5.41 – 1.5 |
| 2035 | -5.91 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -0.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.39typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.3bn | 37.6bn | 29bn | 32.1bn – 34.5bn |
| 2028 | 39.4bn | 46.9bn | 31.8bn | 36.3bn – 42.4bn |
| 2030 | 45.4bn | 55.1bn | 35.7bn | 40.2bn – 50.6bn |
| 2035 | 60.5bn | 74.3bn | 46.8bn | 48bn – 73.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.7 | 11.55 | 5.86 | 8.13 – 9.28 |
| 2028 | 8.05 | 12.97 | 3.13 | 6.91 – 9.19 |
| 2030 | 7.73 | 14.08 | 1.37 | 6.14 – 9.32 |
| 2035 | 7.47 | 16.46 | 0 | 4.9 – 10.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.4bn | 40.4bn | 30.3bn | 34bn – 36.7bn |
| 2028 | 42.1bn | 50.8bn | 33.3bn | 38.7bn – 45.4bn |
| 2030 | 48.8bn | 60.1bn | 37.5bn | 43.1bn – 54.4bn |
| 2035 | 65.5bn | 81.5bn | 49.5bn | 51.9bn – 79.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.57 | 3.79 | 1.35 | 2.34 – 2.8 |
| 2028 | 2.5 | 4.62 | 0.39 | 2.06 – 2.95 |
| 2030 | 2.43 | 5.16 | 0 | 1.82 – 3.05 |
| 2035 | 2.26 | 6.12 | 0 | 1.31 – 3.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.6· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GTM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 81.9bn | 2024 (26.3) |
| 2028 | 84.8bn | 2025 (26.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -109779021683.782 + 7289347765.0897·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.893 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.29 | 2025 (4.7) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 25.6743 + 0.9821·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.832 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.22 | 2024 (113.2bn) |
| 2027 | 6.2 | 2025 (123.3bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -5.7482 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.592 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.57 | 2023 (27.2) |
| 2027 | 2.62 | 2024 (26.3) |
| 2028 | 2.6 | 2025 (26.7) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.0179 + -0.0532·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GTM?indicator= · API docs
