Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Guam: forward projections across 7 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Guam's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.649 over 21 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5.8bn | 2020 (6.24) |
Latest observed7.89(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 5.68 | 18.96 | 0 | 3.69 – 7.67 |
| 2025 | 1.27 | 24.27 | 0 | 0 – 4.61 |
| 2027 | 0 | 29.7 | 0 | 0 – 4.32 |
| 2032 | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0 – 6.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.35· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.9bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 7bn | 7.7bn | 6.5bn | 6.8bn – 7.2bn |
| 2025 | 7.4bn | 8.5bn | 6.4bn | 6.8bn – 7.9bn |
| 2027 | 7.7bn | 9.2bn | 6.4bn | 6.8bn – 8.6bn |
| 2032 | 8.5bn | 10.6bn | 6.7bn | 6.7bn – 10.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 9.82 | 12 | -5.36 | 6.75 – 12 |
| 2025 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 6.37 – 12 |
| 2027 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.51 – 12 |
| 2032 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.84 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.8k(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 42.4k | 46.3k | 39k | 41.1k – 43.7k |
| 2025 | 44.1k | 50.8k | 38.2k | 40.8k – 47.3k |
| 2027 | 45.7k | 54.4k | 38.2k | 40.5k – 50.9k |
| 2032 | 49.9k | 62.1k | 39.2k | 39.5k – 60.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed63.98(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 65.58 | 70.03 | 61.13 | 63.55 – 67.61 |
| 2025 | 68.78 | 76.49 | 61.07 | 63.69 – 73.87 |
| 2027 | 71.98 | 81.94 | 62.03 | 63.81 – 80.16 |
| 2032 | 79.99 | 94.06 | 65.92 | 63.4 – 96.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead63.94· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed169k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 168.7k | 176.6k | 161.3k | 163.4k – 173.9k |
| 2028 | 170k | 178k | 162.5k | 157.4k – 182.6k |
| 2030 | 171.3k | 179.4k | 163.8k | 151.9k – 190.8k |
| 2035 | 174.7k | 183k | 167k | 138.5k – 210.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead169.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.41 | 6 | 4.81 | 5.23 – 5.58 |
| 2028 | 5.08 | 6.11 | 4.04 | 4.68 – 5.48 |
| 2030 | 4.75 | 6.09 | 3.42 | 4.17 – 5.34 |
| 2035 | 3.93 | 5.82 | 2.05 | 3.02 – 4.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.64· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GUM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2024 | 5.8bn | 2021 (6) |
| 2025 | 6bn | 2022 (5.38) |
| 2026 | 6bn | 2023 (5.26) |
| 2027 | 6bn | 2024 (5.25) |
| 2028 | 5.9bn | 2025 (5.57) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 7064838519.4612 + -205701458.2092·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GUM?indicator= · API docs
