Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Guyana: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2006, 2008, 2010, 2015, 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Guyana's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.812 over 63 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.6bn | 2024 (43.82) |
Latest observed31.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 17.04 – 30 |
| 2028 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 6.95 – 30 |
| 2030 | 30 | 30 | -30 | -0.3 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | -14.26 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.62(2005)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 83.39 | 93.24 | 74.85 | 80.65 – 86.13 |
| 2008 | 80.92 | 97.98 | 66.13 | 74.6 – 87.24 |
| 2010 | 78.45 | 100.48 | 59.36 | 69.03 – 87.87 |
| 2015 | 72.28 | 103.43 | 45.28 | 56.26 – 88.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead82.66· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.4bn | 36bn | 25.5bn | 29.2bn – 31.5bn |
| 2028 | 38.6bn | 48.4bn | 30bn | 35.5bn – 41.6bn |
| 2030 | 46.8bn | 59.4bn | 35.8bn | 41.4bn – 52.1bn |
| 2035 | 67.2bn | 85.2bn | 51.7bn | 53.3bn – 81.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10bntypical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.06 – 12 |
| 2028 | 4.34 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2030 | -6.34 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.3typical miss · 1 realized · 46% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.2k | 43k | 30.3k | 34.8k – 37.6k |
| 2028 | 45.8k | 57.6k | 35.6k | 42.2k – 49.4k |
| 2030 | 55.4k | 70.7k | 42.2k | 49.1k – 61.7k |
| 2035 | 79.5k | 101.1k | 60.7k | 63k – 95.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead43.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.52 | 40.89 | 12.09 | 25.02 – 30.02 |
| 2028 | 24.76 | 47.93 | 0 | 20.01 – 29.51 |
| 2030 | 22 | 51.91 | 0 | 15.64 – 28.36 |
| 2035 | 15.1 | 57.39 | 0 | 6.18 – 24.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.22typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed109.73(2005)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 109.49 | 118.47 | 100.51 | 106.09 – 112.88 |
| 2008 | 109.01 | 124.57 | 93.45 | 100.95 – 117.07 |
| 2010 | 108.53 | 128.61 | 88.45 | 96.21 – 120.85 |
| 2015 | 107.34 | 135.74 | 78.93 | 85.07 – 129.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead109.61· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.58 | 9.02 | -2.26 | 2.31 – 4.84 |
| 2028 | 4.17 | 13.6 | -5 | 1.88 – 6.46 |
| 2030 | 4.77 | 16.94 | -5 | 1.69 – 7.85 |
| 2035 | 6.26 | 23.47 | -5 | 1.44 – 11.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.53typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.33(2005)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 33.89 | 42 | 26.86 | 32.19 – 35.59 |
| 2008 | 38.04 | 52.1 | 25.86 | 34.21 – 41.87 |
| 2010 | 42.19 | 60.34 | 26.46 | 36.22 – 48.16 |
| 2015 | 52.57 | 70 | 30.33 | 40.49 – 64.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.77· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed836k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 834.6k | 874k | 798k | 808.7k – 860.5k |
| 2028 | 840k | 879.7k | 803.1k | 777.8k – 902.1k |
| 2030 | 845.4k | 885.3k | 808.3k | 749.4k – 941.3k |
| 2035 | 858.8k | 899.4k | 821.2k | 680.7k – 1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±211.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 6.76 – 15 |
| 2028 | 7.34 | 15 | -10 | -6.87 – 15 |
| 2030 | -0.8 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.7typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 1.7bn | 1.2bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2028 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.6bn | 3.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 3.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.85(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 1.27 | 2.35 | 0.19 | 1.09 – 1.46 |
| 2026 | 1.78 | 3.64 | 0 | 1.4 – 2.15 |
| 2028 | 2.02 | 4.44 | 0 | 1.49 – 2.55 |
| 2033 | 2.22 | 5.63 | 0 | 1.34 – 3.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.6· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.5bn | 1.7bn | 1.2bn | 1.4bn – 1.5bn |
| 2028 | 1.7bn | 2.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.8bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.6bn | 3.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 3.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.25 | 13.3 | 9.21 | 10.76 – 11.75 |
| 2028 | 9.83 | 13.37 | 6.3 | 8.82 – 10.85 |
| 2030 | 8.42 | 12.98 | 3.85 | 7.04 – 9.79 |
| 2035 | 4.87 | 11.33 | 0 | 3.1 – 6.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.58· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/GUY · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 8.3bn | 2025 (19.34) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 993129319.5488 + 379647913.0112·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.705 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -34.92 | 2023 (16.9bn) |
| 2027 | -87.87 | 2024 (24.7bn) |
| 2028 | -104.52 | 2025 (27.1bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 80.7504 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.688 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.81 | 2023 (11.92) |
| 2027 | 7.38 | 2024 (11.87) |
| 2028 | 8.26 | 2025 (11.96) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -111.7791 + 10.0349·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.642 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.15 | 2023 (26.7) |
| 2027 | 13.22 | 2024 (24.3) |
| 2028 | 13.1 | 2025 (28.9) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 13.8385 + -0.0256·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.638 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.65 | 2024 (24.3) |
| 2027 | 1.94 | 2025 (28.9) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 0.0844 + 0.0643·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.594 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.87 | 2024 (43.82) |
| 2027 | -0.08 | 2025 (19.34) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -13.4587 + 0.6921·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/GUY?indicator= · API docs
