Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Hong Kong: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Hong Kong's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.676 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.6 | 2025 (2.8) |
Latest observed13.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.48 | 18.62 | 8.34 | 12.22 – 14.75 |
| 2028 | 15.85 | 24.75 | 6.94 | 13.27 – 18.42 |
| 2030 | 18.21 | 29.71 | 6.71 | 14.41 – 22.01 |
| 2035 | 24.12 | 30 | 7.86 | 16.94 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.32typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed199.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 122.33 | 143.04 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 102.07 | 134.9 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 88.12 | 127.8 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 62.49 | 111.57 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead150· skill-weighted across models
Track record±49.76typical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed427.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 442bn | 477.6bn | 411.2bn | 428.3bn – 455.7bn |
| 2028 | 477.5bn | 539.1bn | 424.1bn | 442.2bn – 512.8bn |
| 2030 | 513bn | 592.5bn | 444.1bn | 454.7bn – 571.2bn |
| 2035 | 601.7bn | 714.1bn | 504.2bn | 476.9bn – 726.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead470.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.94 | 12 | -10 | 1.17 – 6.71 |
| 2028 | 5.14 | 12 | -10 | 0.2 – 10.08 |
| 2030 | 6.34 | 12 | -10 | -0.23 – 12 |
| 2035 | 9.33 | 12 | -10 | -0.73 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.98· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.14typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.7k | 63.3k | 54.7k | 56.9k – 60.5k |
| 2028 | 63k | 71k | 56.1k | 58.3k – 67.7k |
| 2030 | 67.3k | 77.6k | 58.4k | 59.6k – 74.9k |
| 2035 | 78k | 92.5k | 65.4k | 61.8k – 94.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead62.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.41 | 15.5 | 10.99 | 12.87 – 13.94 |
| 2028 | 16.02 | 19.65 | 11.83 | 14.69 – 17.35 |
| 2030 | 18.63 | 23.32 | 13.23 | 16.42 – 20.84 |
| 2035 | 25.17 | 31.79 | 17.52 | 19.95 – 30.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.69typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed196.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 122.7 | 143.42 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 102.72 | 135.56 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 88.96 | 128.66 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 63.68 | 112.79 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead150· skill-weighted across models
Track record±46.89typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.34 | 2.57 | 0.03 | 1.05 – 1.63 |
| 2028 | 0.93 | 3.05 | -1.34 | 0.41 – 1.45 |
| 2030 | 0.52 | 3.26 | -2.42 | -0.17 – 1.21 |
| 2035 | -0.51 | 3.37 | -4.66 | -1.53 – 0.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.97· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.56typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.88 | 19.52 | 14.59 | 16.23 – 17.52 |
| 2028 | 16.67 | 21.25 | 12.7 | 15.22 – 18.13 |
| 2030 | 16.47 | 22.37 | 11.34 | 14.3 – 18.63 |
| 2035 | 15.95 | 24.31 | 8.71 | 12.21 – 19.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.94typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5m | 7.8m | 7.2m | 7.3m – 7.7m |
| 2028 | 7.5m | 7.8m | 7.1m | 6.9m – 8m |
| 2030 | 7.4m | 7.8m | 7.1m | 6.6m – 8.3m |
| 2035 | 7.4m | 7.8m | 6.9m | 5.8m – 8.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±59.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7 | 15 | -3.4 | 4.09 – 7.3 |
| 2028 | 8.91 | 15 | -6.84 | 5.86 – 11.97 |
| 2030 | 12.13 | 15 | -8.2 | 7.77 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 7.81 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.63typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed425.4bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 412.4bn | 486.6bn | 338.3bn | 394.5bn – 430.4bn |
| 2026 | 384.6bn | 513.1bn | 256.2bn | 346.5bn – 422.7bn |
| 2028 | 356.8bn | 522.6bn | 191bn | 302.9bn – 410.8bn |
| 2033 | 287.4bn | 521.9bn | 52.9bn | 205.5bn – 369.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead424.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.69(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5.81 | 7.19 | 4.43 | 5.51 – 6.11 |
| 2026 | 5.96 | 8.34 | 3.57 | 5.31 – 6.61 |
| 2028 | 6.03 | 9.11 | 2.95 | 5.08 – 6.98 |
| 2033 | 6.09 | 10.44 | 1.73 | 4.45 – 7.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.7· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed425.6bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 412.5bn | 486.7bn | 338.4bn | 394.6bn – 430.5bn |
| 2026 | 384.8bn | 513.2bn | 256.3bn | 346.6bn – 422.9bn |
| 2028 | 357bn | 522.8bn | 191.2bn | 303.1bn – 410.9bn |
| 2033 | 287.6bn | 522.1bn | 53.1bn | 205.7bn – 369.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead424.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.14 | 3.12 | 1.17 | 1.96 – 2.33 |
| 2028 | 0.83 | 2.52 | 0 | 0.52 – 1.14 |
| 2030 | 0 | 2.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.41 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.08 | 0 | 0 – 0.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.66typical miss · 1 realized · 44% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/HKG · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 10.6028 + -1.7862·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.644 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.33 | 2025 (1.44) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.6833 + -0.2455·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.616 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.56 | 2023 (2.95) |
| 2027 | 4.63 | 2024 (2.99) |
| 2028 | 4.29 | 2025 (2.8) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -0.8871 + 1.8481·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.577 over 64 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.07 | 2025 (427.3bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 8.4365 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.562 over 61 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 183.4bn | 2023 (3.15) |
| 2027 | 191.1bn | 2024 (2.63) |
| 2028 | 178.5bn | 2025 (3.49) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 229709335100.7115 + -14691776034.657·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.522 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.72 | 2023 (380.8bn) |
| 2027 | 5.34 | 2024 (408.4bn) |
| 2028 | 5.76 | 2025 (427.3bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -3.7544 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/HKG?indicator= · API docs
