Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Hong Kong: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Hong Kong's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.666 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.62 | 2026 (3.3) |
Latest observed12.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13.5 | 18.62 | 8.37 | 12.23 – 14.76 |
| 2029 | 15.29 | 24.16 | 6.41 | 12.74 – 17.83 |
| 2031 | 17.08 | 28.54 | 5.63 | 13.38 – 20.79 |
| 2036 | 21.56 | 30 | 5.36 | 14.81 – 28.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.48· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed199.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 122.33 | 143.04 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 102.07 | 134.9 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 88.12 | 127.8 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 62.49 | 111.57 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead150· skill-weighted across models
Track record±49.76typical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed427.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 465.6bn | 501.6bn | 434.3bn | 451.1bn – 480bn |
| 2029 | 503.9bn | 566.2bn | 449.8bn | 466.6bn – 541.1bn |
| 2031 | 542.2bn | 622.7bn | 472.4bn | 480.6bn – 603.7bn |
| 2036 | 638bn | 751.8bn | 539.3bn | 505.6bn – 770.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead464.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.34 | 12 | -7.58 | 0.39 – 4.28 |
| 2029 | 2.21 | 12 | -10 | -1.2 – 5.62 |
| 2031 | 2.08 | 12 | -10 | -2.35 – 6.52 |
| 2036 | 1.77 | 12 | -10 | -4.55 – 8.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.29· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.6k | 66.2k | 57.7k | 59.7k – 63.5k |
| 2029 | 66.6k | 74.4k | 59.8k | 61.7k – 71.5k |
| 2031 | 71.6k | 81.7k | 62.8k | 63.4k – 79.7k |
| 2036 | 84k | 98.3k | 71.6k | 66.6k – 101.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead61.5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.74 | 17.65 | 13.55 | 15.2 – 16.29 |
| 2029 | 19.03 | 22.33 | 15.23 | 17.61 – 20.46 |
| 2031 | 22.32 | 26.58 | 17.41 | 19.79 – 24.86 |
| 2036 | 30.55 | 36.57 | 23.6 | 24.21 – 36.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.65· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed196.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 122.7 | 143.42 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 102.72 | 135.56 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 88.96 | 128.66 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 63.68 | 112.79 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead150· skill-weighted across models
Track record±46.89typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.44(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4 | 3.18 | 1.56 | 2.19 – 2.61 |
| 2029 | 3.33 | 4.69 | 1.87 | 2.87 – 3.79 |
| 2031 | 4.26 | 6.01 | 2.38 | 3.53 – 4.99 |
| 2036 | 6.58 | 9.06 | 3.92 | 4.98 – 8.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.22· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.88 | 19.52 | 14.59 | 16.23 – 17.52 |
| 2028 | 16.67 | 21.25 | 12.7 | 15.22 – 18.13 |
| 2030 | 16.47 | 22.37 | 11.34 | 14.3 – 18.63 |
| 2035 | 15.95 | 24.31 | 8.71 | 12.21 – 19.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.69· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.94typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.6m | 7.9m | 7.2m | 7.3m – 7.8m |
| 2029 | 7.6m | 8m | 7.3m | 7m – 8.2m |
| 2031 | 7.7m | 8m | 7.3m | 6.8m – 8.5m |
| 2036 | 7.8m | 8.3m | 7.4m | 6.2m – 9.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7 | 15 | -3.4 | 4.09 – 7.3 |
| 2028 | 8.91 | 15 | -6.84 | 5.86 – 11.97 |
| 2030 | 12.13 | 15 | -8.2 | 7.77 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 7.81 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.63typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed425.4bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 412.4bn | 486.6bn | 338.3bn | 394.5bn – 430.4bn |
| 2026 | 384.6bn | 513.1bn | 256.2bn | 346.5bn – 422.7bn |
| 2028 | 356.8bn | 522.6bn | 191bn | 302.9bn – 410.8bn |
| 2033 | 287.4bn | 521.9bn | 52.9bn | 205.5bn – 369.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead424.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.69(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 5.81 | 7.19 | 4.43 | 5.51 – 6.11 |
| 2026 | 5.96 | 8.34 | 3.57 | 5.31 – 6.61 |
| 2028 | 6.03 | 9.11 | 2.95 | 5.08 – 6.98 |
| 2033 | 6.09 | 10.44 | 1.73 | 4.45 – 7.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.7· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed425.6bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 412.5bn | 486.7bn | 338.4bn | 394.6bn – 430.5bn |
| 2026 | 384.8bn | 513.2bn | 256.3bn | 346.6bn – 422.9bn |
| 2028 | 357bn | 522.8bn | 191.2bn | 303.1bn – 410.9bn |
| 2033 | 287.6bn | 522.1bn | 53.1bn | 205.7bn – 369.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead424.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 1.61 | 2.66 – 3.15 |
| 2029 | 2.11 | 4.36 | 0 | 1.66 – 2.55 |
| 2031 | 1.32 | 4.22 | 0 | 0.77 – 1.87 |
| 2036 | 0 | 4.1 | 0 | 0 – 0.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/HKG · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 10.4197 + -1.7572·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.637 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.14 | 2026 (2.1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.6471 + -0.242·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.613 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.87 | 2024 (1.73) |
| 2028 | 8.08 | 2025 (1.44) |
| 2029 | 7.6 | 2026 (2.1) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 9.1005 + -0.7124·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.602 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.34 | 2026 (450.1bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ -5.9062 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.577 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 483.1bn | 2026 (14.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 277178589236.8852 + 14604665951.9197·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.574 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.24 | 2026 (450.1bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 8.3641 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/HKG?indicator= · API docs
