Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Haiti: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Haiti's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.76 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.3bn | 2023 (14.46) |
Latest observed1.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.83 | 4.85 | -1.18 | 1.19 – 2.48 |
| 2028 | 2.7 | 7.92 | -2.52 | 1.5 – 3.9 |
| 2030 | 3.57 | 10.31 | -3.18 | 1.91 – 5.23 |
| 2035 | 5.73 | 15.27 | -3.8 | 2.87 – 8.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.08· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.53typical miss · 1 realized · 41% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.13 | 2.56 | 0 | 0 – 0.49 |
| 2028 | 0 | 4.2 | 0 | 0 – 0.65 |
| 2030 | 0 | 5.43 | 0 | 0 – 0.86 |
| 2035 | 0 | 7.68 | 0 | 0 – 1.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.75typical miss · 1 realized · 48% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.6bn | 42.1bn | 28.1bn | 33.2bn – 36.1bn |
| 2028 | 41.1bn | 54.1bn | 29.8bn | 37.6bn – 44.6bn |
| 2030 | 47.6bn | 64.4bn | 33bn | 41.8bn – 53.4bn |
| 2035 | 63.8bn | 87.6bn | 43.2bn | 50.6bn – 77.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.02 | -0.08 | -5.57 | -3.56 – -2.48 |
| 2028 | -3.64 | 1.45 | -8.05 | -4.66 – -2.61 |
| 2030 | -4.26 | 2.32 | -9.96 | -5.7 – -2.82 |
| 2035 | -5.81 | 3.48 | -10 | -8.29 – -3.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.32typical miss · 1 realized · 77% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9k | 3.5k | 2.3k | 2.8k – 3k |
| 2028 | 3.4k | 4.5k | 2.4k | 3.1k – 3.7k |
| 2030 | 3.9k | 5.3k | 2.6k | 3.4k – 4.4k |
| 2035 | 5.2k | 7.2k | 3.4k | 4.1k – 6.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±207.86typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.53 | 20.62 | 1.04 | 9.94 – 13.11 |
| 2028 | 9.98 | 25.73 | 0 | 7.08 – 12.88 |
| 2030 | 8.44 | 28.76 | 0 | 4.63 – 12.24 |
| 2035 | 4.57 | 33.32 | 0 | 0 – 9.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.03typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.3 | 14.76 | 7.83 | 10.59 – 12.01 |
| 2028 | 5.24 | 11.24 | 0 | 4.07 – 6.41 |
| 2030 | 0 | 7.74 | 0 | 0 – 1.27 |
| 2035 | 0 | 10.95 | 0 | 0 – 1.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.81typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.01 | 48.85 | 9.82 | 25.35 – 34.66 |
| 2028 | 32.38 | 50 | -2.58 | 23.59 – 41.17 |
| 2030 | 34.75 | 50 | -5 | 22.63 – 46.87 |
| 2035 | 40.68 | 50 | -5 | 20.96 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.51typical miss · 1 realized · 40% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.17 | 14.41 | 8.37 | 10.53 – 11.81 |
| 2028 | 8.93 | 14.54 | 4.08 | 7.7 – 10.16 |
| 2030 | 6.69 | 13.92 | 0.42 | 5.12 – 8.26 |
| 2035 | 1.09 | 11.32 | 0 | 0 – 2.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.53typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.9m | 12.4m | 11.3m | 11.5m – 12.2m |
| 2028 | 12m | 12.6m | 11.5m | 11.1m – 12.9m |
| 2030 | 12.2m | 12.7m | 11.6m | 10.8m – 13.5m |
| 2035 | 12.5m | 13.1m | 12m | 9.9m – 15.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±854.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-3.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.29 | -1.16 | -6.63 | -4.74 – -3.83 |
| 2028 | -5.05 | 0.35 | -9.1 | -5.97 – -4.13 |
| 2030 | -5.82 | 1.16 | -10 | -7.15 – -4.48 |
| 2035 | -7.73 | 2.14 | -10 | -10 – -5.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-4.02· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.13typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.3bn | 3.9bn | 2.8bn | 3.2bn – 3.5bn |
| 2028 | 3.8bn | 4.7bn | 2.9bn | 3.5bn – 4.1bn |
| 2030 | 4.3bn | 5.5bn | 3.1bn | 3.8bn – 4.8bn |
| 2035 | 5.5bn | 7.1bn | 3.8bn | 4.3bn – 6.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.77(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.48 | 8.5 | 4.46 | 6.07 – 6.89 |
| 2027 | 6.13 | 9.63 | 2.64 | 5.3 – 6.96 |
| 2029 | 5.96 | 10.48 | 1.45 | 4.8 – 7.13 |
| 2034 | 5.83 | 12.21 | 0 | 3.92 – 7.74 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.87· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6bn | 4.2bn | 3bn | 3.5bn – 3.8bn |
| 2028 | 4.2bn | 5.2bn | 3.1bn | 3.8bn – 4.5bn |
| 2030 | 4.7bn | 6bn | 3.4bn | 4.1bn – 5.3bn |
| 2035 | 6.1bn | 7.9bn | 4.2bn | 4.8bn – 7.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.79 | 15.53 | 14.05 | 14.33 – 15.25 |
| 2028 | 14.49 | 15.77 | 13.21 | 13.42 – 15.56 |
| 2030 | 14.19 | 15.84 | 12.54 | 12.58 – 15.8 |
| 2035 | 13.43 | 15.77 | 11.1 | 10.65 – 16.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.93· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/HTI · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 |
| 15.5bn |
| 2024 (14.61) |
| 2028 | 16.1bn | 2025 (14.94) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -7172624835.3349 + 1554327461.3447·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.727 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.9 | 2025 (32.1bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 8.4059 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.566 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.56 | 2023 (19.6bn) |
| 2027 | 17.92 | 2024 (24.3bn) |
| 2028 | 13.51 | 2025 (32.1bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 31.5859 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/HTI?indicator= · API docs
