Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Hungary: forward projections across 16 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Hungary's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.743 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.4 | 2023 (73.3) |
Latest observed-0.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.95 | 9.94 | -6.04 | 0.29 – 3.61 |
| 2028 | 2.44 | 16.28 | -11.39 | -0.5 – 5.38 |
| 2030 | 2.94 | 20.8 | -14.92 | -0.94 – 6.82 |
| 2035 | 4.18 | 29.44 | -21.08 | -1.65 – 10 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.45typical miss · 1 realized · 490% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.69 | 83.41 | 61.52 | 68.86 – 74.51 |
| 2028 | 69.79 | 90.1 | 52.19 | 63.54 – 76.05 |
| 2030 | 67.9 | 94.12 | 45.18 | 58.73 – 77.08 |
| 2035 | 63.18 | 100.26 | 31.04 | 47.77 – 78.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.1typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed246.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 261.2bn | 293.2bn | 233.5bn | 253.1bn – 269.3bn |
| 2028 | 297.4bn | 352.8bn | 249.3bn | 275.4bn – 319.4bn |
| 2030 | 333.5bn | 405bn | 271.5bn | 295.6bn – 371.4bn |
| 2035 | 423.8bn | 525bn | 336.2bn | 335.9bn – 511.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead280.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.7bntypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.96 | 12 | -9.51 | -1.07 – 2.99 |
| 2028 | 1.78 | 12 | -10 | -1.8 – 5.35 |
| 2030 | 2.59 | 12 | -10 | -2.12 – 7.3 |
| 2035 | 4.63 | 12 | -10 | -2.47 – 11.74 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.94typical miss · 1 realized · 50% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.5k | 30.8k | 24.6k | 26.6k – 28.3k |
| 2028 | 31.3k | 37.1k | 26.3k | 29k – 33.6k |
| 2030 | 35.2k | 42.7k | 28.7k | 31.2k – 39.2k |
| 2035 | 44.8k | 55.4k | 35.7k | 35.5k – 54.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±425.25typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 74.95 | 84.18 | 64.3 | 72.33 – 77.57 |
| 2028 | 75.65 | 91.64 | 57.2 | 69.56 – 81.74 |
| 2030 | 76.35 | 97 | 52.53 | 67.07 – 85.64 |
| 2035 | 78.1 | 107.3 | 44.41 | 61.11 – 95.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead79.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.75typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 67.01 | 85.16 | 48.85 | 63.16 – 70.86 |
| 2028 | 64.72 | 96.17 | 33.28 | 56.8 – 72.64 |
| 2030 | 62.44 | 103.03 | 21.84 | 51.23 – 73.64 |
| 2035 | 56.72 | 114.13 | 0 | 38.86 – 74.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead67.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.78typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.75 | 20.95 | -5 | 2.29 – 9.21 |
| 2028 | 6.75 | 33.06 | -5 | 0.59 – 12.9 |
| 2030 | 7.74 | 41.71 | -5 | -0.41 – 15.89 |
| 2035 | 10.22 | 50 | -5 | -2.07 – 22.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.85typical miss · 1 realized · 203% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.66 | 21.81 | -5 | -0.42 – 7.74 |
| 2029 | 5.16 | 36.59 | -5 | -2.06 – 12.37 |
| 2031 | 5.7 | 46.27 | -5 | -3.75 – 15.15 |
| 2036 | 5.98 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 19.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.17· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.9 | 24.09 | 18.14 | 20.11 – 21.69 |
| 2028 | 18.34 | 23.86 | 13.56 | 16.67 – 20.01 |
| 2030 | 15.78 | 22.9 | 9.61 | 13.5 – 18.06 |
| 2035 | 9.37 | 19.44 | 0.64 | 6.43 – 12.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.52typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.5m | 10m | 9.1m | 9.2m – 9.8m |
| 2028 | 9.5m | 9.9m | 9.1m | 8.8m – 10.2m |
| 2030 | 9.4m | 9.9m | 9m | 8.3m – 10.5m |
| 2035 | 9.3m | 9.7m | 8.9m | 7.4m – 11.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±17.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.9 | 13.33 | -8.43 | -0.67 – 2.47 |
| 2028 | 0.4 | 15 | -10 | -2.34 – 3.14 |
| 2030 | -0.11 | 15 | -10 | -3.66 – 3.45 |
| 2035 | -1.36 | 15 | -10 | -6.49 – 3.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.26typical miss · 1 realized · 113% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 45.1bn | 53.4bn | 36.8bn | 43.1bn – 47.1bn |
| 2028 | 48.9bn | 63.3bn | 34.6bn | 44.4bn – 53.5bn |
| 2030 | 52.7bn | 71.3bn | 34.2bn | 45.7bn – 59.8bn |
| 2035 | 62.2bn | 88.4bn | 36bn | 48.3bn – 76.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.3 | 4.25 | 2.34 | 3.1 – 3.5 |
| 2028 | 3.06 | 4.72 | 1.4 | 2.66 – 3.46 |
| 2030 | 2.95 | 5.09 | 0.81 | 2.38 – 3.51 |
| 2035 | 2.85 | 5.88 | 0 | 1.93 – 3.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.61· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.7bn | 72.4bn | 53bn | 60.2bn – 65.2bn |
| 2028 | 71.9bn | 88.7bn | 55bn | 65.8bn – 77.9bn |
| 2030 | 81bn | 102.7bn | 59.3bn | 71.2bn – 90.8bn |
| 2035 | 103.9bn | 134.7bn | 73.2bn | 82.4bn – 125.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead61.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.62 | 5.33 | 3.91 | 4.43 – 4.8 |
| 2028 | 4.81 | 6.03 | 3.58 | 4.39 – 5.22 |
| 2030 | 4.99 | 6.58 | 3.41 | 4.35 – 5.64 |
| 2035 | 5.47 | 7.71 | 3.22 | 4.25 – 6.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.12typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/HUN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | -1.33 | 2024 (73.5) |
| 2028 | -0.93 | 2025 (74.6) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -27.9879 + 0.3627·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.679 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 82.73 | 2023 (213bn) |
| 2027 | 83.94 | 2024 (222.8bn) |
| 2028 | 86.85 | 2025 (246.5bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 56.5541 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/HUN?indicator= · API docs
