Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
IDA total: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, IDA total's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.553 over 42 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2T | 2023 (7.1) |
Latest observed23.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.45 | 27.52 | 21.79 | 23.62 – 25.28 |
| 2028 | 26.02 | 31.34 | 21.41 | 24.01 – 28.03 |
| 2030 | 27.59 | 34.45 | 21.64 | 24.4 – 30.78 |
| 2035 | 31.51 | 41.22 | 23.09 | 24.97 – 38.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.86typical miss · 25 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2T | 3.6T | 2.9T | 3.1T – 3.3T |
| 2028 | 3.3T | 4T | 2.8T | 3.1T – 3.6T |
| 2030 | 3.4T | 4.3T | 2.7T | 3.1T – 3.8T |
| 2035 | 3.7T | 4.9T | 2.7T | 2.9T – 4.5T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.3T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±266.3bntypical miss · 25 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.49 | 10.54 | 1.11 | 4.56 – 6.42 |
| 2028 | 7.2 | 12 | -0.39 | 5.39 – 9 |
| 2030 | 8.91 | 12 | -0.89 | 6.31 – 11.5 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -1.85 | 7.42 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.57typical miss · 25 realized · 144% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6k | 1.8k | 1.4k | 1.6k – 1.6k |
| 2028 | 1.6k | 1.9k | 1.3k | 1.5k – 1.7k |
| 2030 | 1.6k | 2k | 1.2k | 1.4k – 1.8k |
| 2035 | 1.6k | 2.2k | 1k | 1.2k – 1.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±199.04typical miss · 25 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.62 | 33.79 | 25.45 | 28.51 – 30.73 |
| 2028 | 31.04 | 38.26 | 23.82 | 28.45 – 33.64 |
| 2030 | 32.46 | 41.79 | 23.14 | 28.44 – 36.49 |
| 2035 | 36.01 | 49.2 | 22.83 | 28.23 – 43.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.51typical miss · 25 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.45 | 8.73 | -2.21 | 2.22 – 4.67 |
| 2028 | 2.71 | 11.86 | -5 | 0.55 – 4.87 |
| 2030 | 1.97 | 13.79 | -5 | -0.8 – 4.75 |
| 2035 | 0.13 | 16.84 | -5 | -3.73 – 4 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.89typical miss · 4 realized · 130% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.47 | 30.11 | 25.18 | 26.62 – 28.32 |
| 2028 | 28.42 | 32.99 | 24.46 | 26.32 – 30.52 |
| 2030 | 29.37 | 35.28 | 24.26 | 26.04 – 32.71 |
| 2035 | 31.76 | 40.1 | 24.53 | 25.17 – 38.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.89typical miss · 25 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2bn | 2.1bn | 1.9bn | 1.9bn – 2bn |
| 2028 | 2bn | 2.1bn | 1.9bn | 1.9bn – 2.2bn |
| 2030 | 2.1bn | 2.2bn | 2bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2035 | 2.2bn | 2.3bn | 2.1bn | 1.7bn – 2.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±114.2mtypical miss · 25 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.81 | 8.17 | -1.22 | 2.09 – 3.52 |
| 2028 | 3.97 | 13.27 | -3 | 2.62 – 5.32 |
| 2030 | 5.13 | 15 | -3.87 | 3.22 – 7.04 |
| 2035 | 8.04 | 15 | -4.69 | 4.63 – 11.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.53· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.35typical miss · 25 realized · 1403% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.01 | 8.5 | 3.52 | 5.54 – 6.49 |
| 2028 | 6.27 | 10.58 | 1.96 | 5.31 – 7.23 |
| 2030 | 6.4 | 11.96 | 0.83 | 5.03 – 7.76 |
| 2035 | 6.5 | 14.37 | 0 | 4.25 – 8.74 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.61· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.16 | 4.8 | 3.52 | 4 – 4.33 |
| 2028 | 3.63 | 4.73 | 2.52 | 3.28 – 3.97 |
| 2030 | 3.09 | 4.51 | 1.66 | 2.62 – 3.55 |
| 2035 | 1.75 | 3.76 | 0 | 1.16 – 2.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.73typical miss · 20 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/IDA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 1.8T | 2024 (3.89) |
| 2028 | 1.9T | 2025 (3.36) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 2570243433071.3164 + -195908838044.745·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.546 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.46 | 2024 (2.9T) |
| 2027 | 2.96 | 2025 (3.2T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 8.2311 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.537 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.73 | 2023 (2.9T) |
| 2027 | 4.73 | 2024 (2.9T) |
| 2028 | 4.79 | 2025 (3.2T) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.1107 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/IDA?indicator= · API docs
