Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
IDA blend: forward projections across 9 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, IDA blend's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.671 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.58 | 2023 (1.3T) |
Latest observed1.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2T | 1.5T | 953.4bn | 1.2T – 1.3T |
| 2028 | 1.1T | 1.7T | 665.6bn | 1T – 1.3T |
| 2030 | 1.1T | 1.8T | 440.1bn | 883.4bn – 1.2T |
| 2035 | 832.2bn | 1.8T | 0 | 580.3bn – 1.1T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±193.7bntypical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.58(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 12 | -0.42 | 4.2 – 6.61 |
| 2028 | 7.25 | 12 | -2.83 | 4.96 – 9.53 |
| 2030 | 9.09 | 12 | -3.92 | 5.86 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -6.4 | 6.54 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.57typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7k | 2.2k | 1.3k | 1.7k – 1.8k |
| 2028 | 1.5k | 2.4k | 811.58 | 1.4k – 1.7k |
| 2030 | 1.3k | 2.4k | 395.72 | 1.1k – 1.6k |
| 2035 | 843.05 | 2.4k | 0 | 523.41 – 1.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±277.1typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.43 | 31.52 | 21.34 | 25.23 – 27.63 |
| 2028 | 28.81 | 37.63 | 19.99 | 26.08 – 31.54 |
| 2030 | 31.19 | 42.58 | 19.8 | 26.95 – 35.43 |
| 2035 | 37.15 | 53.25 | 21.04 | 28.74 – 45.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.94typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.11 | 6.02 | -2.08 | 1.21 – 3.01 |
| 2028 | 0.64 | 7.41 | -5 | -0.91 – 2.19 |
| 2030 | -0.83 | 7.92 | -5 | -2.85 – 1.19 |
| 2035 | -4.51 | 7.87 | -5 | -5 – -1.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed689.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 686.4m | 718.9m | 656.3m | 665.2m – 707.7m |
| 2028 | 700.6m | 733.7m | 669.8m | 648.7m – 752.4m |
| 2030 | 714.7m | 748.4m | 683.3m | 633.5m – 795.8m |
| 2035 | 749.9m | 785.4m | 717m | 594.4m – 905.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead701.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±16.2mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.25 | 8.39 | -2.35 | 1.45 – 3.05 |
| 2028 | 3.43 | 14.06 | -4.55 | 1.93 – 4.92 |
| 2030 | 4.6 | 15 | -5.69 | 2.52 – 6.69 |
| 2035 | 7.55 | 15 | -7.01 | 3.91 – 11.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.31typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.3 | 9.06 | 3.54 | 5.78 – 6.82 |
| 2028 | 6.86 | 11.63 | 2.08 | 5.8 – 7.92 |
| 2030 | 7.13 | 13.3 | 0.97 | 5.62 – 8.65 |
| 2035 | 7.35 | 16.07 | 0 | 4.84 – 9.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.46· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.1 | 4.94 | 3.26 | 3.91 – 4.3 |
| 2028 | 3.46 | 4.91 | 2 | 3.07 – 3.84 |
| 2030 | 2.81 | 4.68 | 0.93 | 2.3 – 3.32 |
| 2035 | 1.19 | 3.84 | 0 | 0.59 – 1.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.26· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/IDB · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 4.41 | 2024 (1.1T) |
| 2028 | 4.58 | 2025 (1.3T) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.1756 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.615 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 947.2bn | 2025 (4.43) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -702937559718.1324 + 372729811368.1292·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.548 over 56 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.54 | 2024 (1.1T) |
| 2027 | 1.89 | 2025 (1.3T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 7.441 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/IDB?indicator= · API docs
