Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Indonesia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Indonesia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.818 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0 | 2025 (41) |
Latest observed-1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.99 | 1.18 | -3.17 | -1.45 – -0.53 |
| 2029 | -0.78 | 2.98 | -4.55 | -1.6 – 0.03 |
| 2031 | -0.57 | 4.29 | -5.43 | -1.64 – 0.5 |
| 2036 | -0.04 | 6.84 | -6.92 | -1.6 – 1.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.42 | 28.5 | 19.02 | 22.32 – 24.52 |
| 2028 | 24.56 | 33.36 | 16.94 | 22.13 – 27 |
| 2030 | 25.7 | 37.06 | 15.86 | 22.03 – 29.38 |
| 2035 | 28.56 | 44.62 | 14.65 | 21.7 – 35.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.11· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.19typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.6T | 1.7T | 1.5T | 1.5T – 1.6T |
| 2029 | 1.7T | 1.9T | 1.5T | 1.6T – 1.8T |
| 2031 | 1.8T | 2.1T | 1.6T | 1.6T – 2T |
| 2036 | 2.1T | 2.5T | 1.8T | 1.7T – 2.6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.05 | 6.48 | 3.81 | 4.73 – 5.37 |
| 2029 | 5.15 | 7.63 | 3.01 | 4.49 – 5.81 |
| 2031 | 5.26 | 8.46 | 2.49 | 4.31 – 6.21 |
| 2036 | 5.53 | 10.05 | 1.61 | 3.89 – 7.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.96· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.5k | 6k | 5.1k | 5.3k – 5.7k |
| 2029 | 5.8k | 6.7k | 5.1k | 5.4k – 6.3k |
| 2031 | 6.2k | 7.3k | 5.3k | 5.5k – 6.9k |
| 2036 | 7.1k | 8.6k | 5.8k | 5.6k – 8.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 42.89 | 48.04 | 36.95 | 41.41 – 44.37 |
| 2029 | 45.68 | 54.6 | 35.39 | 42.11 – 49.24 |
| 2031 | 48.46 | 59.98 | 35.18 | 42.82 – 54.11 |
| 2036 | 55.43 | 71.71 | 36.64 | 43.93 – 66.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.1· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.67 | 25.21 | 16.14 | 19.65 – 21.7 |
| 2028 | 20.93 | 28.79 | 13.08 | 18.72 – 23.14 |
| 2030 | 21.19 | 31.33 | 11.05 | 17.94 – 24.44 |
| 2035 | 21.83 | 36.18 | 7.49 | 16.15 – 27.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.1typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.5 | 6.42 | 0.37 | 2.79 – 4.2 |
| 2029 | 5.02 | 10.08 | -0.41 | 3.66 – 6.38 |
| 2031 | 6.54 | 13.07 | -0.46 | 4.57 – 8.51 |
| 2036 | 10.34 | 19.58 | 0.44 | 6.64 – 14.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.17· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.56 | 30.06 | 27.26 | 27.67 – 29.44 |
| 2028 | 27.92 | 30.11 | 26.01 | 25.85 – 29.98 |
| 2030 | 27.27 | 30.11 | 24.82 | 24.18 – 30.37 |
| 2035 | 25.67 | 29.67 | 22.2 | 20.34 – 30.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.03typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed285.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 286.5m | 300.1m | 273.9m | 277.6m – 295.4m |
| 2029 | 288.1m | 301.8m | 275.5m | 266.8m – 309.5m |
| 2031 | 289.8m | 303.5m | 277.1m | 256.9m – 322.7m |
| 2036 | 293.8m | 307.7m | 280.9m | 232.9m – 354.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead289.2m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.17 | 10.89 | -0.88 | 3.26 – 5.07 |
| 2028 | 5.32 | 15 | -3.42 | 3.61 – 7.03 |
| 2030 | 6.47 | 15 | -4.81 | 4.07 – 8.87 |
| 2035 | 9.35 | 15 | -6.6 | 5.19 – 13.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.15typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed144.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 148.2bn | 160.8bn | 135.5bn | 143.6bn – 152.8bn |
| 2028 | 156.6bn | 178.4bn | 134.7bn | 145bn – 168.1bn |
| 2030 | 164.9bn | 193.2bn | 136.7bn | 146.2bn – 183.7bn |
| 2035 | 185.9bn | 225.9bn | 145.9bn | 147.3bn – 224.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead148.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.77 | 8.05 | 3.48 | 5.32 – 6.21 |
| 2028 | 6.07 | 10.02 | 2.11 | 5.17 – 6.96 |
| 2030 | 6.22 | 11.32 | 1.11 | 4.94 – 7.5 |
| 2035 | 6.34 | 13.56 | 0 | 4.22 – 8.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.36· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed156.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 161.6bn | 173.2bn | 150bn | 156.6bn – 166.6bn |
| 2028 | 173.5bn | 193.6bn | 153.4bn | 160.7bn – 186.4bn |
| 2030 | 185.5bn | 211.4bn | 159.5bn | 164.4bn – 206.6bn |
| 2035 | 215.4bn | 252.1bn | 178.7bn | 170.7bn – 260.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead161.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.03 | 6.47 | 3.59 | 4.73 – 5.33 |
| 2029 | 5.3 | 7.79 | 2.81 | 4.67 – 5.94 |
| 2031 | 5.57 | 8.79 | 2.35 | 4.63 – 6.51 |
| 2036 | 6.24 | 10.79 | 1.69 | 4.54 – 7.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.03· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/IDN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 0.05 | 2026 (41.5) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -4.0694 + 0.0993·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.747 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.31 | 2026 (-1.1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.8674 + 0.5076·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.733 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 35.95 | 2025 (5.11) |
| 2028 | 36.27 | 2026 (5) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 51.1834 + -2.9821·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.627 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 866bn | 2024 (40.2) |
| 2028 | 854.1bn | 2025 (41) |
| 2029 | 846.7bn | 2026 (41.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1464479090819.558 + -14886507159.231·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.553 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.94 | 2026 (41.5) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 1.2028 + 0.114·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/IDN?indicator= · API docs
