Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Isle of Man: forward projections across 4 macro indicators, horizons 2024, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2033, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Isle of Man's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.57 over 38 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 0.88 | 2022 (7.4bn) |
Latest observed7.6bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 7.7bn | 9bn | 6.6bn | 7.5bn – 8bn |
| 2026 | 8.1bn | 10.2bn | 6.2bn | 7.4bn – 8.7bn |
| 2028 | 8.4bn | 11.2bn | 6bn | 7.4bn – 9.4bn |
| 2033 | 9.2bn | 13.2bn | 5.8bn | 7.3bn – 11.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±29.5mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.04(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | -4.06 | 12 | -10 | -6.89 – -1.23 |
| 2026 | -8.18 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -2.99 |
| 2028 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -3.02 |
| 2033 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 0.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.91typical miss · 1 realized · 45% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed90k(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 91.7k | 106.5k | 78.9k | 88.5k – 95k |
| 2026 | 95.6k | 121.2k | 73.3k | 87.9k – 103.2k |
| 2028 | 99.4k | 132.5k | 70.7k | 87.5k – 111.3k |
| 2033 | 109k | 155.8k | 68.4k | 86k – 132k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead91.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±398.36typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed84.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 84.1k | 88.1k | 80.4k | 81.5k – 86.7k |
| 2028 | 84.1k | 88k | 80.4k | 77.8k – 90.3k |
| 2030 | 84k | 88k | 80.3k | 74.5k – 93.6k |
| 2035 | 83.9k | 87.9k | 80.2k | 66.5k – 101.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead84.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±26.61typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/IMN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2025 | 0.74 | 2023 (7.6bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 8.363 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/IMN?indicator= · API docs
