Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Ireland: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Ireland's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.918 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.21 | 2025 (4.63) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed7.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.06 | 30 | -16.23 | 5.31 – 16.81 |
| 2028 | 17.18 | 30 | -30 | 6.71 – 27.65 |
| 2030 | 23.3 | 30 | -30 | 8.98 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 7.59 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.66typical miss · 1 realized · 49% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed140.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 141.92 | 150 | 132.84 | 137.52 – 146.32 |
| 2028 | 145.63 | 150 | 129.91 | 134.86 – 150 |
| 2030 | 149.34 | 150 | 129.04 | 132.38 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 121.29 | 118.88 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead140.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.09typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed721.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 761.4bn | 839.9bn | 693.3bn | 737.8bn – 785bn |
| 2028 | 864.1bn | 1T | 746.2bn | 800.1bn – 928bn |
| 2030 | 966.7bn | 1.1T | 814.6bn | 857bn – 1.1T |
| 2035 | 1.2T | 1.5T | 1T | 969.7bn – 1.5T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead754.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±51.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 12 | -3.79 | 8.77 – 12 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 6.17 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.25 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 0.48 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13typical miss · 1 realized · 1300% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed131.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 137.5k | 152.2k | 124.7k | 133.2k – 141.8k |
| 2028 | 153.1k | 178.6k | 131k | 141.8k – 164.4k |
| 2030 | 168.7k | 201.7k | 140.2k | 149.6k – 187.9k |
| 2035 | 207.8k | 250k | 167.5k | 164.7k – 250k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead134.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.59(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.98 | 4.76 | 1.07 | 2.49 – 3.46 |
| 2029 | 2.25 | 5.33 | 0 | 1.38 – 3.11 |
| 2031 | 1.89 | 5.87 | 0 | 0.76 – 3.02 |
| 2036 | 1.6 | 7.23 | 0 | 0 – 3.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.68· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.75 | 36.27 | 24.38 | 29.41 – 32.09 |
| 2028 | 22.65 | 32.22 | 11.61 | 20.09 – 25.21 |
| 2030 | 14.55 | 26.9 | 0.3 | 11.49 – 17.62 |
| 2035 | 0 | 17.46 | 0 | 0 – 2.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.75typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 98.21 | 127.71 | 68.71 | 92.12 – 104.3 |
| 2028 | 94.85 | 145.94 | 43.75 | 82.47 – 107.22 |
| 2030 | 91.48 | 150 | 25.52 | 74.07 – 108.9 |
| 2035 | 83.07 | 150 | 0 | 55.5 – 110.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead98.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.17typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.62 | 9.4 | -4.65 | 1.07 – 4.16 |
| 2028 | 2.75 | 14.5 | -5 | 0.02 – 5.49 |
| 2030 | 2.89 | 18.06 | -5 | -0.71 – 6.48 |
| 2035 | 3.23 | 24.68 | -5 | -2.04 – 8.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.78typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.32 | 9.68 | -3.5 | 1.86 – 4.78 |
| 2029 | 2.86 | 13.88 | -5 | 0.28 – 5.44 |
| 2031 | 2.69 | 16.92 | -5 | -0.68 – 6.06 |
| 2036 | 2.61 | 22.73 | -5 | -2.27 – 7.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.13· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21 | 49 | 0 | 16.66 – 25.34 |
| 2028 | 17.64 | 66.14 | 0 | 9.87 – 25.42 |
| 2030 | 14.29 | 70 | 0 | 4.2 – 24.38 |
| 2035 | 5.9 | 70 | 0 | 0 – 19.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.87typical miss · 1 realized · 26% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.5m | 5.7m | 5.2m | 5.3m – 5.6m |
| 2028 | 5.6m | 5.8m | 5.3m | 5.1m – 6m |
| 2030 | 5.7m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5m – 6.3m |
| 2035 | 5.9m | 6.2m | 5.6m | 4.7m – 7.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±93.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.11 | 15 | -1.03 | 9.73 – 14.5 |
| 2028 | 15 | 15 | -7.77 | 10.49 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 8.9 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 5.67 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.62typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.2bn | 16.1bn | 8.3bn | 11.4bn – 13bn |
| 2028 | 12.9bn | 19.7bn | 6.2bn | 11.3bn – 14.6bn |
| 2030 | 13.6bn | 22.4bn | 4.9bn | 11.2bn – 16.1bn |
| 2035 | 15.4bn | 27.8bn | 3.1bn | 11.1bn – 19.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.13(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0 | 0.08 – 0.18 |
| 2028 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0 | 0.07 – 0.19 |
| 2030 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0 | 0.03 – 0.23 |
| 2035 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0 | 0 – 0.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.01typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.1bn | 18bn | 10.2bn | 13.3bn – 14.9bn |
| 2028 | 15.3bn | 22.1bn | 8.6bn | 13.6bn – 17.1bn |
| 2030 | 16.6bn | 25.3bn | 7.9bn | 13.9bn – 19.2bn |
| 2035 | 19.7bn | 32bn | 7.4bn | 14.7bn – 24.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.31 | 6.08 | 2.54 | 3.97 – 4.65 |
| 2028 | 3.66 | 6.73 | 0.59 | 3.01 – 4.3 |
| 2030 | 3.01 | 6.97 | 0 | 2.16 – 3.86 |
| 2035 | 1.39 | 6.99 | 0 | 0.31 – 2.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.69typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/IRL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.748 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.1 | 2025 (34.8) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 1.4643 + 0.1045·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.602 over 40 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 340.4bn | 2025 (4.63) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 436523812057.7526 + -20754906765.7679·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/IRL?indicator= · API docs
