Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Ireland: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Ireland's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.921 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 36.91 | 2026 (4.8) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed8.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.53 | 29.71 | -6.65 | 7.64 – 15.43 |
| 2029 | 18.4 | 30 | -13.1 | 11.09 – 25.71 |
| 2031 | 25.26 | 30 | -15.4 | 14.94 – 30 |
| 2036 | 30 | 30 | -27.5 | 13.47 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed140.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 141.92 | 150 | 132.84 | 137.52 – 146.32 |
| 2028 | 145.63 | 150 | 129.91 | 134.86 – 150 |
| 2030 | 149.34 | 150 | 129.04 | 132.38 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 121.29 | 118.88 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead140.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.09typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed721.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 832.5bn | 905.1bn | 769.5bn | 806.6bn – 858.3bn |
| 2029 | 963.1bn | 1.1T | 854.1bn | 891.9bn – 1T |
| 2031 | 1.1T | 1.3T | 953bn | 969.6bn – 1.2T |
| 2036 | 1.4T | 1.7T | 1.2T | 1.1T – 1.7T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead830.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.16 | 12 | -10 | -0.83 – 5.15 |
| 2029 | 1.03 | 12 | -10 | -4.15 – 6.21 |
| 2031 | -0.1 | 12 | -10 | -6.8 – 6.6 |
| 2036 | -2.92 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 6.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed131.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 148.4k | 162.1k | 136.5k | 143.8k – 153k |
| 2029 | 168.8k | 192.6k | 148.2k | 156.3k – 181.3k |
| 2031 | 189.2k | 219.9k | 162.6k | 167.7k – 210.7k |
| 2036 | 240.2k | 250k | 202.6k | 190.4k – 250k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead148.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.13(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.64 | 4.41 | 0.73 | 2.16 – 3.12 |
| 2029 | 2.06 | 5.13 | 0 | 1.2 – 2.91 |
| 2031 | 1.77 | 5.74 | 0 | 0.65 – 2.89 |
| 2036 | 1.54 | 7.16 | 0 | 0 – 3.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 27.7 | 32.99 | 21.6 | 26.44 – 28.96 |
| 2029 | 19.9 | 29.06 | 9.33 | 17.54 – 22.26 |
| 2031 | 12.1 | 23.93 | 0 | 9.31 – 14.89 |
| 2036 | 0 | 16.73 | 0 | 0 – 2.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.3· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 98.21 | 127.71 | 68.71 | 92.12 – 104.3 |
| 2028 | 94.85 | 145.94 | 43.75 | 82.47 – 107.22 |
| 2030 | 91.48 | 150 | 25.52 | 74.07 – 108.9 |
| 2035 | 83.07 | 150 | 0 | 55.5 – 110.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead98.94· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.17typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.56 | 10.02 | -3.37 | 2.07 – 5.05 |
| 2029 | 4.8 | 16 | -5 | 2.09 – 7.52 |
| 2031 | 6.05 | 20.5 | -5 | 2.36 – 9.74 |
| 2036 | 9.16 | 29.6 | -5 | 3.17 – 15.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.03· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.87 | 9.21 | -3.92 | 1.42 – 4.32 |
| 2029 | 2.65 | 13.64 | -5 | 0.09 – 5.22 |
| 2031 | 2.57 | 16.76 | -5 | -0.78 – 5.92 |
| 2036 | 2.53 | 22.59 | -5 | -2.32 – 7.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.27· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.24(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21 | 49 | 0 | 16.66 – 25.34 |
| 2028 | 17.64 | 66.14 | 0 | 9.87 – 25.42 |
| 2030 | 14.29 | 70 | 0 | 4.2 – 24.38 |
| 2035 | 5.9 | 70 | 0 | 0 – 19.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.87typical miss · 1 realized · 26% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.5m | 5.8m | 5.3m | 5.4m – 5.7m |
| 2029 | 5.6m | 5.9m | 5.4m | 5.2m – 6m |
| 2031 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.5m | 5.1m – 6.3m |
| 2036 | 5.9m | 6.2m | 5.7m | 4.7m – 7.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.11 | 15 | -1.03 | 9.73 – 14.5 |
| 2028 | 15 | 15 | -7.77 | 10.49 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 8.9 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 5.67 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.62typical miss · 1 realized · 100% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.2bn | 16.1bn | 8.3bn | 11.4bn – 13bn |
| 2028 | 12.9bn | 19.7bn | 6.2bn | 11.3bn – 14.6bn |
| 2030 | 13.6bn | 22.4bn | 4.9bn | 11.2bn – 16.1bn |
| 2035 | 15.4bn | 27.8bn | 3.1bn | 11.1bn – 19.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.14(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.14 | 0.33 | 0 | 0.09 – 0.19 |
| 2027 | 0.13 | 0.33 | 0 | 0.07 – 0.19 |
| 2029 | 0.13 | 0.32 | 0 | 0.03 – 0.23 |
| 2034 | 0.12 | 0.32 | 0 | 0 – 0.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.15· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.1bn | 18bn | 10.2bn | 13.3bn – 14.9bn |
| 2028 | 15.3bn | 22.1bn | 8.6bn | 13.6bn – 17.1bn |
| 2030 | 16.6bn | 25.3bn | 7.9bn | 13.9bn – 19.2bn |
| 2035 | 19.7bn | 32bn | 7.4bn | 14.7bn – 24.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.59 | 6.18 | 3 | 4.28 – 4.91 |
| 2029 | 4.18 | 6.93 | 1.43 | 3.56 – 4.8 |
| 2031 | 3.77 | 7.32 | 0.21 | 2.92 – 4.61 |
| 2036 | 2.74 | 7.76 | 0 | 1.53 – 3.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.84· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/IRL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.753 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.76 | 2026 (31.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 1.4561 + 0.1046·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.605 over 41 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 358.3bn | 2026 (4.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 467949052981.9199 + -22843304013.6851·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/IRL?indicator= · API docs
