Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Iran: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 1983, 1985, 1987, 1992, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Iran's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.718 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.15 | 2025 (42.17) |
Latest observed-1.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.32 | 10.98 | -4.34 | 1.71 – 4.94 |
| 2028 | 3.36 | 16.63 | -9.9 | 0.5 – 6.23 |
| 2030 | 3.41 | 20.53 | -13.72 | -0.36 – 7.17 |
| 2035 | 3.51 | 27.73 | -20.71 | -1.99 – 9.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.52typical miss · 1 realized · 377% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.74 | 33.7 | 18.85 | 24.2 – 27.29 |
| 2028 | 25.72 | 39.49 | 13.79 | 22.52 – 28.93 |
| 2030 | 25.7 | 43.48 | 10.29 | 21.11 – 30.3 |
| 2035 | 25.65 | 50.79 | 3.86 | 17.95 – 33.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.24typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed362.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 358.9bn | 515bn | 223.7bn | 334.6bn – 383.2bn |
| 2028 | 347.4bn | 617.7bn | 113.2bn | 298.6bn – 396.3bn |
| 2030 | 335.9bn | 684.9bn | 33.5bn | 267.5bn – 404.3bn |
| 2035 | 307.2bn | 800.7bn | 0 | 199.3bn – 415.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead317.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±47bntypical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.41 | 0.18 | -10 | -6.43 – -4.39 |
| 2028 | -10 | -0.32 | -10 | -10 – -7.91 |
| 2030 | -10 | 2.5 | -10 | -10 – -7.12 |
| 2035 | -10 | 7.68 | -10 | -10 – -5.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-7.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.19typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.9k | 5.6k | 2.3k | 3.6k – 4.1k |
| 2028 | 3.6k | 6.7k | 1k | 3.1k – 4.2k |
| 2030 | 3.4k | 7.4k | 55.34 | 2.7k – 4.2k |
| 2035 | 2.9k | 8.5k | 0 | 1.8k – 4.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±306.52typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.94 | 41.12 | 25.65 | 32.29 – 35.59 |
| 2028 | 30.61 | 43.06 | 16.26 | 27.23 – 34 |
| 2030 | 27.29 | 43.36 | 8.75 | 22.64 – 31.95 |
| 2035 | 18.98 | 41.7 | 0 | 12.45 – 25.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.16typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.28 | 41.62 | 28.94 | 33.74 – 36.81 |
| 2028 | 36.86 | 47.84 | 25.88 | 33.41 – 40.31 |
| 2030 | 38.44 | 52.61 | 24.27 | 33.2 – 43.68 |
| 2035 | 42.39 | 62.44 | 22.35 | 32.54 – 52.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.63typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.09 | 50 | 28.14 | 42.41 – 50 |
| 2028 | 50 | 50 | 17.18 | 40.81 – 50 |
| 2030 | 50 | 50 | 7.63 | 37.23 – 50 |
| 2035 | 50 | 50 | -5 | 29.6 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50· skill-weighted across models
Track record±31.51typical miss · 1 realized · 40% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.28 | 33.71 | 25.44 | 28.18 – 30.38 |
| 2028 | 30.43 | 38.11 | 23.77 | 27.87 – 32.99 |
| 2030 | 31.58 | 41.49 | 22.98 | 27.63 – 35.52 |
| 2035 | 34.44 | 48.47 | 22.29 | 26.93 – 41.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.57typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.1m | 96.5m | 88.1m | 89.3m – 95m |
| 2028 | 93.1m | 97.5m | 89m | 86.2m – 100m |
| 2030 | 94m | 98.5m | 89.9m | 83.3m – 104.7m |
| 2035 | 96.3m | 100.9m | 92.1m | 76.4m – 116.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead88.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.2mtypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-3.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.26 | 10.44 | -10 | -6.17 – -2.36 |
| 2028 | -6.71 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.2 |
| 2030 | -9.16 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -4.32 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-4.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.11typical miss · 1 realized · 181% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.7bn(1982)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 3.4bn | 12.1bn | 0 | 2bn – 4.8bn |
| 1985 | 0 | 15bn | 0 | 0 – 2.3bn |
| 1987 | 0 | 19.4bn | 0 | 0 – 3bn |
| 1992 | 0 | 27.4bn | 0 | 0 – 4.2bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.82(1982)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 6.21 | 15.17 | 0 | 4.74 – 7.68 |
| 1985 | 6.67 | 22.19 | 0 | 3.97 – 9.36 |
| 1987 | 6.89 | 26.93 | 0 | 3.27 – 10.51 |
| 1992 | 7.07 | 35.41 | 0 | 1.6 – 12.54 |
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7bn(1982)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1983 | 5.4bn | 14.8bn | 0 | 3.9bn – 6.9bn |
| 1985 | 507.1m | 16.7bn | 0 | 0 – 3bn |
| 1987 | 0 | 20.9bn | 0 | 0 – 3.2bn |
| 1992 | 0 | 29.6bn | 0 | 0 – 4.5bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.98 | 8.74 | 7.22 | 7.73 – 8.23 |
| 2028 | 7.33 | 8.65 | 6.01 | 6.78 – 7.89 |
| 2030 | 6.69 | 8.39 | 4.98 | 5.89 – 7.48 |
| 2035 | 5.07 | 7.49 | 2.66 | 3.89 – 6.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.22typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/IRN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 12.9849 + -0.0909·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.673 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.73 | 2023 (29.6) |
| 2027 | 26.78 | 2024 (31.2) |
| 2028 | 29.69 | 2025 (35.6) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 6.1536 + 0.6612·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.585 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 315.5bn | 2025 (3.3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 228112758993.3187 + 26475593000.5759·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/IRN?indicator= · API docs
