Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Iraq: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Iraq's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.803 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.54 | 2023 (268.9bn) |
Latest observed-10.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.75 | 11.58 | -21.08 | -8.16 – -1.34 |
| 2028 | -6.65 | 21.64 | -30 | -12.74 – -0.56 |
| 2030 | -8.54 | 27.97 | -30 | -16.68 – -0.41 |
| 2035 | -13.29 | 30 | -30 | -25.95 – -0.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-10.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.05typical miss · 1 realized · 56% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.76(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 40.53 | 54.81 | 28.15 | 37.84 – 43.21 |
| 2027 | 42.05 | 66.79 | 20.61 | 36.5 – 47.6 |
| 2029 | 43.58 | 75.51 | 15.9 | 35.53 – 51.63 |
| 2034 | 47.39 | 92.55 | 8.25 | 33.36 – 61.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.27· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed254.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 252bn | 334bn | 180.9bn | 238.2bn – 265.8bn |
| 2028 | 248.6bn | 390.7bn | 125.5bn | 219.8bn – 277.5bn |
| 2030 | 245.3bn | 428.7bn | 86.4bn | 203.8bn – 286.8bn |
| 2035 | 236.9bn | 496.3bn | 12.2bn | 168.2bn – 305.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead248.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.16(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.56 | 12 | -10 | -5.15 – 0.03 |
| 2028 | -3.5 | 12 | -10 | -8.09 – 1.08 |
| 2030 | -4.45 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.61 |
| 2035 | -6.81 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 2.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-10· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13.44typical miss · 1 realized · 84% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.3k | 7.2k | 3.6k | 5k – 5.6k |
| 2028 | 5k | 8.2k | 2.1k | 4.3k – 5.6k |
| 2030 | 4.7k | 8.9k | 984.28 | 3.8k – 5.5k |
| 2035 | 3.9k | 9.9k | 0 | 2.6k – 5.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.91typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.73 | 77.02 | 22.55 | 47.01 – 56.45 |
| 2028 | 49.59 | 93.4 | 0 | 40.48 – 58.71 |
| 2030 | 47.46 | 104 | 0 | 34.96 – 59.95 |
| 2035 | 42.12 | 122.08 | 0 | 23.07 – 61.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead71.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±19.37typical miss · 1 realized · 27% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed37.38(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 38.31 | 47.08 | 29.55 | 36.36 – 40.27 |
| 2027 | 40.19 | 55.37 | 25.01 | 35.94 – 44.44 |
| 2029 | 42.07 | 61.67 | 22.47 | 35.7 – 48.43 |
| 2034 | 46.76 | 74.48 | 19.04 | 35.03 – 58.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.38· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.45 | 5.27 | -5 | -1.74 – 0.83 |
| 2028 | -3.68 | 6.23 | -5 | -5 – -1.31 |
| 2030 | -5 | 7.8 | -5 | -5 – -1.76 |
| 2035 | -5 | 13.1 | -5 | -5 – -0.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.95typical miss · 1 realized · 113% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.36(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 14.9 | 25.91 | 5.36 | 13.09 – 16.71 |
| 2027 | 16.2 | 35.27 | 0 | 12.7 – 19.7 |
| 2029 | 17.5 | 42.11 | 0 | 12.58 – 22.41 |
| 2034 | 20.74 | 55.55 | 0 | 12.45 – 29.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.2· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.8m | 49m | 44.7m | 45.3m – 48.2m |
| 2028 | 47.8m | 50.1m | 45.7m | 44.3m – 51.4m |
| 2030 | 48.9m | 51.2m | 46.8m | 43.4m – 54.5m |
| 2035 | 51.6m | 54m | 49.3m | 40.9m – 62.3m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±119.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-4.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.61 | 14.14 | -10 | -8.16 – -3.05 |
| 2028 | -7.57 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.93 |
| 2030 | -9.54 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -3.26 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -0.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.52typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed73.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.1bn | 103.9bn | 40.2bn | 66bn – 78.1bn |
| 2028 | 68.5bn | 123.6bn | 13.3bn | 56.7bn – 80.2bn |
| 2030 | 64.8bn | 136.1bn | 0 | 48.8bn – 80.9bn |
| 2035 | 55.8bn | 156.5bn | 0 | 31.5bn – 80.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead72.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±20.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 28% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.96 | 16.17 | 7.76 | 11.13 – 12.8 |
| 2028 | 12.4 | 19.68 | 5.12 | 10.69 – 14.11 |
| 2030 | 12.61 | 22.01 | 3.22 | 10.16 – 15.06 |
| 2035 | 12.78 | 26.07 | 0 | 8.7 – 16.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.07typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 99.9bn | 129.3bn | 70.6bn | 93.8bn – 106bn |
| 2028 | 104.8bn | 155.7bn | 53.9bn | 92bn – 117.7bn |
| 2030 | 109.7bn | 175.5bn | 44bn | 90.9bn – 128.6bn |
| 2035 | 122bn | 214.9bn | 29.1bn | 88.3bn – 155.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead98bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±11.6bntypical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.36 | 16.15 | 14.58 | 14.89 – 15.84 |
| 2028 | 15.12 | 16.48 | 13.76 | 14 – 16.24 |
| 2030 | 14.88 | 16.64 | 13.13 | 13.19 – 16.57 |
| 2035 | 14.28 | 16.76 | 11.8 | 11.32 – 17.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.44· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/IRQ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 14.82 | 2024 (279.6bn) |
| 2028 | 14.16 | 2025 (254.4bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 7.5111 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.776 over 21 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.78 | 2025 (52.8) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -4.6023 + 0.1398·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.767 over 21 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 205.5bn | 2025 (52.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 241972158758.0947 + -691397666.005·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.735 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.25 | 2025 (254.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 195.6378 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/IRQ?indicator= · API docs
