Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Iceland: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Iceland's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.683 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.94 | 2026 (53.6) |
Latest observed-0.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.72 | 3.76 | -7.2 | -2.86 – -0.57 |
| 2029 | -3.75 | 5.74 | -13.25 | -5.87 – -1.64 |
| 2031 | -5.79 | 6.47 | -18.05 | -8.75 – -2.82 |
| 2036 | -10.88 | 6.46 | -28.21 | -16.16 – -5.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.16· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.91 | 51.75 | 29.65 | 37.58 – 42.24 |
| 2028 | 39.51 | 60.02 | 21.74 | 34.68 – 44.34 |
| 2030 | 39.11 | 65.58 | 16.16 | 32.2 – 46.02 |
| 2035 | 38.1 | 75.54 | 5.65 | 26.65 – 49.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.04typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 46.7bn | 52.3bn | 41.8bn | 45.2bn – 48.1bn |
| 2029 | 53.9bn | 63.6bn | 45.6bn | 50bn – 57.9bn |
| 2031 | 61.2bn | 73.7bn | 50.4bn | 54.3bn – 68.2bn |
| 2036 | 79.4bn | 97bn | 64.1bn | 62.9bn – 95.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead46.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.48 | 10.5 | -4.46 | 1.11 – 3.86 |
| 2029 | 3.47 | 12 | -8.56 | 0.99 – 5.95 |
| 2031 | 4.46 | 12 | -10 | 1.11 – 7.8 |
| 2036 | 6.92 | 12 | -10 | 1.59 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.44· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 116.5k | 130.8k | 104k | 112.9k – 120.1k |
| 2029 | 132.9k | 157.8k | 111.3k | 123.1k – 142.7k |
| 2031 | 149.3k | 181.5k | 121.4k | 132.4k – 166.3k |
| 2036 | 190.4k | 235.8k | 150.9k | 150.9k – 229.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead112.3k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 51.93 | 61.84 | 40.49 | 49.57 – 54.29 |
| 2029 | 48.59 | 65.76 | 28.77 | 43.61 – 53.56 |
| 2031 | 45.25 | 67.42 | 19.66 | 38.21 – 52.28 |
| 2036 | 36.89 | 68.25 | 0.71 | 26.16 – 47.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.8· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.04 | 51.07 | 35.01 | 41.13 – 44.96 |
| 2028 | 44.38 | 58.29 | 30.47 | 40.12 – 48.64 |
| 2030 | 45.72 | 63.68 | 27.77 | 39.32 – 52.13 |
| 2035 | 49.07 | 74.47 | 23.68 | 37.33 – 60.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.73typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.31 | 10.03 | 0.25 | 4.18 – 6.44 |
| 2029 | 6.3 | 14.47 | -2.45 | 4.19 – 8.41 |
| 2031 | 7.29 | 17.84 | -4.01 | 4.37 – 10.22 |
| 2036 | 9.78 | 24.69 | -5 | 4.9 – 14.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.31· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.45 | 29.45 | 25.72 | 26.6 – 28.3 |
| 2028 | 29.46 | 32.92 | 26.46 | 27.28 – 31.64 |
| 2030 | 31.47 | 35.93 | 27.6 | 27.89 – 35.04 |
| 2035 | 36.49 | 42.8 | 31.02 | 28.92 – 44.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.79typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed392.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 396.9k | 415.6k | 379.5k | 384.6k – 409.2k |
| 2029 | 403k | 422.1k | 385.3k | 373.2k – 432.8k |
| 2031 | 409.2k | 428.5k | 391.2k | 362.7k – 455.6k |
| 2036 | 424.6k | 444.6k | 405.9k | 336.5k – 512.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead403k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.78 | 8.84 | -8 | -2 – 0.44 |
| 2028 | -2.01 | 14.67 | -10 | -4.19 – 0.17 |
| 2030 | -3.23 | 15 | -10 | -6.18 – -0.28 |
| 2035 | -6.29 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.55typical miss · 1 realized · 1206% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.7bn | 9.2bn | 6.3bn | 7.4bn – 8.1bn |
| 2028 | 8.4bn | 10.9bn | 5.9bn | 7.7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2030 | 9.1bn | 12.4bn | 5.9bn | 7.9bn – 10.4bn |
| 2035 | 10.9bn | 15.5bn | 6.3bn | 8.5bn – 13.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.77 | 9.01 | 2.54 | 5.18 – 6.36 |
| 2028 | 6.31 | 11.91 | 0.7 | 5.15 – 7.47 |
| 2030 | 6.57 | 13.81 | 0 | 4.94 – 8.2 |
| 2035 | 6.78 | 17.02 | 0 | 4.13 – 9.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.05· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.1bn | 9.5bn | 6.6bn | 7.7bn – 8.4bn |
| 2028 | 8.8bn | 11.4bn | 6.3bn | 8bn – 9.7bn |
| 2030 | 9.6bn | 12.9bn | 6.3bn | 8.3bn – 10.9bn |
| 2035 | 11.6bn | 16.3bn | 6.9bn | 9bn – 14.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.93 | 5.84 | 2.01 | 3.57 – 4.28 |
| 2029 | 3.38 | 6.69 | 0.07 | 2.71 – 4.05 |
| 2031 | 2.84 | 7.11 | 0 | 1.95 – 3.72 |
| 2036 | 1.47 | 7.52 | 0 | 0.31 – 2.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.1· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ISL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.8342 + 0.0393·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.682 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 77.15 | 2026 (4.2) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 29.8462 + 11.2621·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.6 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.46 | 2026 (4.2) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 27.8666 + -5.0974·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ISL?indicator= · API docs
