Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Iceland: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Iceland's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.689 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.03 | 2025 (56.7) |
Latest observed-2.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.45 | 0.03 | -10.93 | -6.66 – -4.24 |
| 2028 | -8.35 | 1.14 | -17.84 | -10.69 – -6.01 |
| 2030 | -11.25 | 1 | -23.5 | -14.65 – -7.85 |
| 2035 | -18.5 | -1.18 | -30 | -25 – -12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.95typical miss · 1 realized · 118% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.91 | 51.75 | 29.65 | 37.58 – 42.24 |
| 2028 | 39.51 | 60.02 | 21.74 | 34.68 – 44.34 |
| 2030 | 39.11 | 65.58 | 16.16 | 32.2 – 46.02 |
| 2035 | 38.1 | 75.54 | 5.65 | 26.65 – 49.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.04typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.5bn | 46.4bn | 35.4bn | 39.2bn – 41.9bn |
| 2028 | 45.6bn | 55.8bn | 36.7bn | 42.2bn – 49bn |
| 2030 | 50.6bn | 63.8bn | 39.2bn | 44.9bn – 56.4bn |
| 2035 | 63.3bn | 81.9bn | 47.1bn | 50.2bn – 76.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead44.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.34 | 12 | -10 | -1.9 – 2.58 |
| 2028 | -1.63 | 12 | -10 | -5.56 – 2.3 |
| 2030 | -3.6 | 12 | -10 | -8.86 – 1.66 |
| 2035 | -8.53 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -0.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.06typical miss · 1 realized · 76% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed98.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 102.6k | 118.4k | 88.9k | 99.1k – 106.1k |
| 2028 | 113.8k | 141.1k | 90.1k | 105.1k – 122.5k |
| 2030 | 125k | 160.3k | 94.4k | 110.8k – 139.2k |
| 2035 | 153k | 202.9k | 109.8k | 121.3k – 184.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead109.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.9 | 65.95 | 42.15 | 52.32 – 57.48 |
| 2028 | 51.29 | 70.43 | 29.21 | 45.89 – 56.7 |
| 2030 | 47.69 | 72.4 | 19.18 | 40.07 – 55.3 |
| 2035 | 38.68 | 73.62 | 0 | 27.11 – 50.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead53.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.3typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed42.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.04 | 51.07 | 35.01 | 41.13 – 44.96 |
| 2028 | 44.38 | 58.29 | 30.47 | 40.12 – 48.64 |
| 2030 | 45.72 | 63.68 | 27.77 | 39.32 – 52.13 |
| 2035 | 49.07 | 74.47 | 23.68 | 37.33 – 60.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.73typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.09(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6 | 8.47 | -1.62 | 2.46 – 4.73 |
| 2028 | 1.12 | 9.56 | -5 | -0.8 – 3.05 |
| 2030 | -1.35 | 9.54 | -5 | -3.87 – 1.17 |
| 2035 | -5 | 10.4 | -5 | -5 – -0.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2typical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.45 | 29.45 | 25.72 | 26.6 – 28.3 |
| 2028 | 29.46 | 32.92 | 26.46 | 27.28 – 31.64 |
| 2030 | 31.47 | 35.93 | 27.6 | 27.89 – 35.04 |
| 2035 | 36.49 | 42.8 | 31.02 | 28.92 – 44.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.09· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.79typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed392.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 391.9k | 410.4k | 374.7k | 379.7k – 404k |
| 2028 | 398.4k | 417.2k | 380.9k | 368.9k – 427.8k |
| 2030 | 404.9k | 424k | 387.1k | 358.9k – 450.8k |
| 2035 | 421.1k | 441k | 402.6k | 333.7k – 508.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead403k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.78 | 8.84 | -8 | -2 – 0.44 |
| 2028 | -2.01 | 14.67 | -10 | -4.19 – 0.17 |
| 2030 | -3.23 | 15 | -10 | -6.18 – -0.28 |
| 2035 | -6.29 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.55typical miss · 1 realized · 1206% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.7bn | 9.2bn | 6.3bn | 7.4bn – 8.1bn |
| 2028 | 8.4bn | 10.9bn | 5.9bn | 7.7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2030 | 9.1bn | 12.4bn | 5.9bn | 7.9bn – 10.4bn |
| 2035 | 10.9bn | 15.5bn | 6.3bn | 8.5bn – 13.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.76 | 8.99 | 2.52 | 5.17 – 6.34 |
| 2028 | 6.3 | 11.9 | 0.69 | 5.14 – 7.46 |
| 2030 | 6.56 | 13.8 | 0 | 4.93 – 8.2 |
| 2035 | 6.78 | 17.01 | 0 | 4.13 – 9.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.03· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.1bn | 9.5bn | 6.6bn | 7.7bn – 8.4bn |
| 2028 | 8.8bn | 11.4bn | 6.3bn | 8bn – 9.7bn |
| 2030 | 9.6bn | 12.9bn | 6.3bn | 8.3bn – 10.9bn |
| 2035 | 11.6bn | 16.3bn | 6.9bn | 9bn – 14.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.14 | 5.05 | 1.24 | 2.8 – 3.49 |
| 2028 | 2.18 | 5.48 | 0 | 1.57 – 2.79 |
| 2030 | 1.22 | 5.48 | 0 | 0.47 – 1.97 |
| 2035 | 0 | 6.02 | 0 | 0 – 1.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.8· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.66typical miss · 1 realized · 34% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ISL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.7834 + 0.0396·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.686 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 71.09 | 2025 (3.63) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 30.1441 + 11.2944·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.6 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.49 | 2025 (3.63) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 27.9365 + -5.0876·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.532 over 41 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14bn | 2023 (61.6) |
| 2027 | 13.8bn | 2024 (60.5) |
| 2028 | 13.2bn | 2025 (56.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 4820469742.2559 + 148634330.8585·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ISL?indicator= · API docs
