Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Israel: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Israel's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.915 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.22 | 2025 (67.9) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.02 | 3.42 | 0.61 | 1.7 – 2.34 |
| 2028 | 1.85 | 4.29 | -0.59 | 1.26 – 2.43 |
| 2030 | 1.68 | 4.83 | -1.47 | 0.9 – 2.45 |
| 2035 | 1.25 | 5.71 | -3.2 | 0.14 – 2.36 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.92typical miss · 1 realized · 83% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.48 | 30.87 | 24.54 | 26.55 – 28.4 |
| 2028 | 27.32 | 33.19 | 22.23 | 25.17 – 29.47 |
| 2030 | 27.16 | 34.74 | 20.59 | 23.9 – 30.41 |
| 2035 | 26.75 | 37.48 | 17.46 | 20.94 – 32.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.98typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed610.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 633.2bn | 694.2bn | 580.2bn | 613.5bn – 652.8bn |
| 2028 | 693.2bn | 799bn | 601.5bn | 641.9bn – 744.5bn |
| 2030 | 753.3bn | 889.9bn | 634.9bn | 667.7bn – 838.8bn |
| 2035 | 903.4bn | 1.1T | 736bn | 716bn – 1.1T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead791.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±113.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.16 | 12 | -6.88 | 1.18 – 5.14 |
| 2028 | 3.57 | 12 | -10 | 0.06 – 7.09 |
| 2030 | 3.98 | 12 | -10 | -0.65 – 8.62 |
| 2035 | 5.02 | 12 | -10 | -1.89 – 11.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.34typical miss · 1 realized · 30% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.8k | 68.6k | 55.9k | 59.9k – 63.7k |
| 2028 | 65.9k | 77.7k | 55.8k | 61.1k – 70.8k |
| 2030 | 70.1k | 85.2k | 57k | 62.1k – 78k |
| 2035 | 80.4k | 101.8k | 61.9k | 63.7k – 97.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead76k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.64 | 77.87 | 57.98 | 66.12 – 71.16 |
| 2028 | 70.11 | 86.11 | 51.65 | 64.28 – 75.94 |
| 2030 | 71.58 | 92.23 | 47.75 | 62.68 – 80.49 |
| 2035 | 75.26 | 104.47 | 41.56 | 58.73 – 91.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead69.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.16typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.21 | 29.48 | 20.93 | 24.15 – 26.26 |
| 2028 | 24.76 | 32.16 | 17.36 | 22.44 – 27.08 |
| 2030 | 24.31 | 33.87 | 14.76 | 20.9 – 27.72 |
| 2035 | 23.19 | 36.7 | 9.68 | 17.41 – 28.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.48typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.11 | 6.19 | -0.2 | 2.37 – 3.84 |
| 2028 | 3.06 | 8.41 | -2.67 | 1.73 – 4.39 |
| 2030 | 3.01 | 9.92 | -4.38 | 1.24 – 4.79 |
| 2035 | 2.9 | 12.66 | -5 | 0.27 – 5.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.52· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.31typical miss · 1 realized · 73% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.52 | 25.48 | 21.82 | 22.79 – 24.25 |
| 2028 | 22.94 | 26.35 | 20 | 21.25 – 24.64 |
| 2030 | 22.37 | 26.76 | 18.56 | 19.83 – 24.91 |
| 2035 | 20.94 | 27.15 | 15.55 | 16.6 – 25.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.1m | 10.5m | 9.6m | 9.8m – 10.4m |
| 2028 | 10.2m | 10.7m | 9.7m | 9.4m – 11m |
| 2030 | 10.3m | 10.8m | 9.9m | 9.2m – 11.5m |
| 2035 | 10.7m | 11.2m | 10.2m | 8.4m – 12.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±247.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.18 | 12.79 | -7.53 | -0.29 – 2.65 |
| 2028 | 1.03 | 15 | -10 | -1.53 – 3.59 |
| 2030 | 0.88 | 15 | -10 | -2.44 – 4.21 |
| 2035 | 0.51 | 15 | -10 | -4.24 – 5.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.18typical miss · 1 realized · 332% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed229.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 240bn | 279.4bn | 200.5bn | 230.1bn – 249.8bn |
| 2028 | 266.4bn | 334.7bn | 198bn | 243.1bn – 289.6bn |
| 2030 | 292.8bn | 381.1bn | 204.6bn | 255.9bn – 329.7bn |
| 2035 | 358.9bn | 483.7bn | 234.1bn | 282.4bn – 435.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead243.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.31 | 19.62 | 9.01 | 13.27 – 15.35 |
| 2028 | 14.25 | 23.44 | 5.07 | 12.16 – 16.34 |
| 2030 | 14.23 | 26.09 | 2.36 | 11.27 – 17.18 |
| 2035 | 14.2 | 30.98 | 0 | 9.36 – 19.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.39· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed229.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 240bn | 279.4bn | 200.5bn | 230.1bn – 249.8bn |
| 2028 | 266.4bn | 334.7bn | 198bn | 243.1bn – 289.6bn |
| 2030 | 292.8bn | 381.1bn | 204.6bn | 255.9bn – 329.7bn |
| 2035 | 358.9bn | 483.7bn | 234.1bn | 282.4bn – 435.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead243.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.28 | 4.43 | 2.12 | 3.05 – 3.51 |
| 2028 | 2.86 | 4.86 | 0.86 | 2.41 – 3.3 |
| 2030 | 2.44 | 5.02 | 0 | 1.85 – 3.03 |
| 2035 | 1.38 | 5.03 | 0 | 0.6 – 2.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.18typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ISR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.865 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 64.52 | 2024 (3.1) |
| 2027 | 68.19 | 2025 (2.1) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 75.9038 + -3.672·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.787 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 430.6bn | 2023 (61.9) |
| 2027 | 363.6bn | 2024 (67.7) |
| 2028 | 361.3bn | 2025 (67.9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1145029843007.1099 + -11541834440.3028·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.647 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.39 | 2024 (542.3bn) |
| 2027 | 6.42 | 2025 (610.8bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.7953 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.589 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.77 | 2024 (3.1) |
| 2027 | -3.7 | 2025 (2.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 23.7362 + -13.0653·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ISR?indicator= · API docs
