Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Israel: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Israel's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.902 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.75 | 2026 (69.8) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed1.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.67 | 3.04 | 0.3 | 1.36 – 1.98 |
| 2029 | 1.21 | 3.59 | -1.17 | 0.66 – 1.75 |
| 2031 | 0.75 | 3.82 | -2.33 | 0.04 – 1.45 |
| 2036 | -0.41 | 3.93 | -4.75 | -1.46 – 0.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.48 | 30.87 | 24.54 | 26.55 – 28.4 |
| 2028 | 27.32 | 33.19 | 22.23 | 25.17 – 29.47 |
| 2030 | 27.16 | 34.74 | 20.59 | 23.9 – 30.41 |
| 2035 | 26.75 | 37.48 | 17.46 | 20.94 – 32.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.98typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed610.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 765.7bn | 846.9bn | 695.2bn | 741.9bn – 789.4bn |
| 2029 | 880.5bn | 1T | 758.5bn | 815.3bn – 945.6bn |
| 2031 | 995.3bn | 1.2T | 837.8bn | 882.3bn – 1.1T |
| 2036 | 1.3T | 1.5T | 1.1T | 1T – 1.5T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead761.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.89 | 8.68 | -0.26 | 3.03 – 4.75 |
| 2029 | 4.59 | 12 | -2.6 | 2.98 – 6.19 |
| 2031 | 5.28 | 12 | -3.99 | 3.08 – 7.49 |
| 2036 | 7.03 | 12 | -6.09 | 3.38 – 10.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.02· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 73.6k | 81.9k | 66.3k | 71.3k – 75.8k |
| 2029 | 83k | 97.5k | 70.5k | 76.9k – 89.2k |
| 2031 | 92.5k | 111.2k | 76.3k | 82k – 103k |
| 2036 | 116.2k | 142.7k | 93.3k | 92.1k – 140.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73.1k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 70.73 | 80.12 | 59.9 | 68.16 – 73.31 |
| 2029 | 72.6 | 88.86 | 53.84 | 66.61 – 78.59 |
| 2031 | 74.47 | 95.46 | 50.24 | 65.28 – 83.65 |
| 2036 | 79.13 | 108.82 | 44.88 | 61.9 – 96.36 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead70.4· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.21 | 29.48 | 20.93 | 24.15 – 26.26 |
| 2028 | 24.76 | 32.16 | 17.36 | 22.44 – 27.08 |
| 2030 | 24.31 | 33.87 | 14.76 | 20.9 – 27.72 |
| 2035 | 23.19 | 36.7 | 9.68 | 17.41 – 28.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.48typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.03 | 4.96 | -1.1 | 1.35 – 2.71 |
| 2029 | 0.99 | 6.06 | -4.43 | -0.18 – 2.16 |
| 2031 | -0.04 | 6.49 | -5 | -1.57 – 1.49 |
| 2036 | -2.64 | 6.61 | -5 | -5 – -0.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.16· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.52 | 25.48 | 21.82 | 22.79 – 24.25 |
| 2028 | 22.94 | 26.35 | 20 | 21.25 – 24.64 |
| 2030 | 22.37 | 26.76 | 18.56 | 19.83 – 24.91 |
| 2035 | 20.94 | 27.15 | 15.55 | 16.6 – 25.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.1m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10.3m | 10.8m | 9.8m | 10m – 10.6m |
| 2029 | 10.5m | 11m | 10m | 9.7m – 11.3m |
| 2031 | 10.7m | 11.2m | 10.2m | 9.5m – 11.9m |
| 2036 | 11.2m | 11.7m | 10.7m | 8.9m – 13.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.5m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.18 | 12.79 | -7.53 | -0.29 – 2.65 |
| 2028 | 1.03 | 15 | -10 | -1.53 – 3.59 |
| 2030 | 0.88 | 15 | -10 | -2.44 – 4.21 |
| 2035 | 0.51 | 15 | -10 | -4.24 – 5.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.18typical miss · 1 realized · 332% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed229.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 240bn | 279.4bn | 200.5bn | 230.1bn – 249.8bn |
| 2028 | 266.4bn | 334.7bn | 198bn | 243.1bn – 289.6bn |
| 2030 | 292.8bn | 381.1bn | 204.6bn | 255.9bn – 329.7bn |
| 2035 | 358.9bn | 483.7bn | 234.1bn | 282.4bn – 435.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead243.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.45 | 19.72 | 9.18 | 13.41 – 15.49 |
| 2028 | 14.34 | 23.47 | 5.21 | 12.25 – 16.42 |
| 2030 | 14.28 | 26.07 | 2.49 | 11.33 – 17.23 |
| 2035 | 14.24 | 30.91 | 0 | 9.41 – 19.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.6· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed229.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 240bn | 279.4bn | 200.5bn | 230.1bn – 249.8bn |
| 2028 | 266.4bn | 334.7bn | 198bn | 243.1bn – 289.6bn |
| 2030 | 292.8bn | 381.1bn | 204.6bn | 255.9bn – 329.7bn |
| 2035 | 358.9bn | 483.7bn | 234.1bn | 282.4bn – 435.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead243.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.49(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.96 | 3.83 | 2.09 | 2.78 – 3.14 |
| 2029 | 2.48 | 3.98 | 0.97 | 2.13 – 2.82 |
| 2031 | 1.99 | 3.93 | 0.05 | 1.54 – 2.45 |
| 2036 | 0.78 | 3.53 | 0 | 0.21 – 1.36 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.16· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ISR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.856 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 70.69 | 2025 (1.5) |
| 2028 | 69.26 | 2026 (1.9) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 76.0614 + -3.5821·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.772 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 379bn | 2024 (67.7) |
| 2028 | 368.8bn | 2025 (68.5) |
| 2029 | 352.1bn | 2026 (69.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1246003975629.3772 + -12806090870.8002·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.634 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.86 | 2025 (610.8bn) |
| 2028 | 7.38 | 2026 (719.8bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.6532 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.588 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.18 | 2025 (1.5) |
| 2028 | 0.04 | 2026 (1.9) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 24.4615 + -12.8544·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ISR?indicator= · API docs
