Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Italy: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2027, 2029, 2031, 2034, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed0.6
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.22 | 3.71 | -3.27 | -0.51 – 0.95 |
| 2029 | -0.54 | 5.51 | -6.59 | -1.82 – 0.74 |
| 2031 | -1.3 | 6.52 | -9.11 | -3 – 0.4 |
| 2036 | -3.2 | 7.85 | -14.25 | -5.96 – -0.43 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.51(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 33.03 | 37.36 | 29.27 | 31.88 – 34.18 |
| 2027 | 34.08 | 41.59 | 27.57 | 31.37 – 36.79 |
| 2029 | 35.13 | 44.82 | 26.72 | 30.93 – 39.32 |
| 2034 | 37.75 | 51.46 | 25.87 | 29.75 – 45.75 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4T(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.8T | 3.1T | 2.6T | 2.8T – 2.9T |
| 2029 | 3.1T | 3.6T | 2.7T | 2.9T – 3.3T |
| 2031 | 3.4T | 4T | 2.8T | 3T – 3.7T |
| 2036 | 4T | 4.9T | 3.2T | 3.2T – 4.8T |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.69(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.03 | 3.9 | -3.45 | -0.71 – 0.64 |
| 2029 | -1.36 | 5.46 | -7.27 | -2.56 – -0.15 |
| 2031 | -2.68 | 6.13 | -10 | -4.36 – -1 |
| 2036 | -5.98 | 6.47 | -10 | -9.02 – -2.95 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.4k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 48.2k | 53.1k | 44k | 46.7k – 49.7k |
| 2029 | 52.7k | 61k | 45.4k | 48.8k – 56.6k |
| 2031 | 57.1k | 67.9k | 47.7k | 50.6k – 63.6k |
| 2036 | 68.2k | 83.5k | 54.9k | 54.1k – 82.3k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed138.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 138.39 | 152.94 | 121.6 | 133.93 – 142.84 |
| 2029 | 138.36 | 163.56 | 109.28 | 127.84 – 148.88 |
| 2031 | 138.33 | 170.86 | 100.79 | 122.26 – 154.4 |
| 2036 | 138.26 | 184.27 | 85.17 | 109.06 – 167.46 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.32(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.13 | 38.95 | 23.31 | 29.44 – 32.82 |
| 2027 | 32.75 | 46.29 | 19.21 | 29.11 – 36.4 |
| 2029 | 34.37 | 51.85 | 16.9 | 28.95 – 39.8 |
| 2034 | 38.43 | 63.15 | 13.71 | 28.5 – 48.36 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.98(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.08 | 10.64 | -5 | 1.35 – 4.8 |
| 2029 | 4.48 | 17.58 | -5 | 1.35 – 7.6 |
| 2031 | 5.88 | 22.8 | -5 | 1.65 – 10.1 |
| 2036 | 9.38 | 33.31 | -5 | 2.57 – 16.18 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.15(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.65 | 24.56 | 20.98 | 21.94 – 23.35 |
| 2027 | 23.94 | 27.26 | 21.06 | 22.17 – 25.71 |
| 2029 | 25.23 | 29.52 | 21.51 | 22.37 – 28.1 |
| 2034 | 28.46 | 34.53 | 23.2 | 22.56 – 34.36 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed59m(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 58.9m | 61.7m | 56.3m | 57.1m – 60.7m |
| 2029 | 58.8m | 61.6m | 56.2m | 54.5m – 63.2m |
| 2031 | 58.8m | 61.5m | 56.2m | 52.1m – 65.4m |
| 2036 | 58.6m | 61.4m | 56m | 46.5m – 70.8m |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.33(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -1.91 | 15 | -10 | -4.12 – 0.3 |
| 2027 | -5.16 | 15 | -10 | -9.18 – -1.14 |
| 2029 | -8.41 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.86 |
| 2034 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.51 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.32 | 6.29 | 4.35 | 5.09 – 5.56 |
| 2029 | 3.97 | 5.65 | 2.29 | 3.53 – 4.42 |
| 2031 | 2.62 | 4.79 | 0.45 | 2.08 – 3.16 |
| 2036 | 0 | 3.07 | 0 | 0 – 0.63 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-06-22 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ITA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
