Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Italy: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Italy's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.723 over 39 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 135.95 | 2024 (2.4T) |
Latest observed0.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.22 | 3.71 | -3.27 | -0.51 – 0.95 |
| 2029 | -0.54 | 5.51 | -6.59 | -1.82 – 0.74 |
| 2031 | -1.3 | 6.52 | -9.11 | -3 – 0.4 |
| 2036 | -3.2 | 7.85 | -14.25 | -5.96 – -0.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.36· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.64 | 37 | 28.86 | 31.49 – 33.78 |
| 2028 | 33.46 | 41.02 | 26.91 | 30.78 – 36.15 |
| 2030 | 34.28 | 44.04 | 25.83 | 30.15 – 38.42 |
| 2035 | 36.34 | 50.14 | 24.38 | 28.56 – 44.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.8typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.8T | 3.1T | 2.6T | 2.8T – 2.9T |
| 2029 | 3.1T | 3.6T | 2.7T | 2.9T – 3.3T |
| 2031 | 3.4T | 4T | 2.8T | 3T – 3.7T |
| 2036 | 4T | 4.9T | 3.2T | 3.2T – 4.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.06 | 3.92 | -3.51 | -0.74 – 0.62 |
| 2029 | -1.43 | 5.46 | -7.4 | -2.65 – -0.21 |
| 2031 | -2.8 | 6.09 | -10 | -4.51 – -1.1 |
| 2036 | -6.24 | 6.35 | -10 | -9.33 – -3.14 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.39· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 48.2k | 53.1k | 44k | 46.7k – 49.7k |
| 2029 | 52.7k | 61k | 45.4k | 48.8k – 56.6k |
| 2031 | 57.1k | 67.9k | 47.7k | 50.6k – 63.6k |
| 2036 | 68.2k | 83.5k | 55k | 54.1k – 82.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead48.4k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.73(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.41 | 6.05 | 0.58 | 2.7 – 4.11 |
| 2029 | 3.02 | 7.59 | 0 | 1.75 – 4.29 |
| 2031 | 2.83 | 8.73 | 0 | 1.15 – 4.51 |
| 2036 | 2.68 | 11.03 | 0 | 0.19 – 5.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.69· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed138.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 138.39 | 152.94 | 121.6 | 133.93 – 142.84 |
| 2029 | 138.36 | 163.56 | 109.28 | 127.84 – 148.88 |
| 2031 | 138.33 | 170.86 | 100.79 | 122.26 – 154.4 |
| 2036 | 138.26 | 184.27 | 85.17 | 109.06 – 167.46 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead138.38· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30.93 | 38.74 | 23.11 | 29.24 – 32.62 |
| 2028 | 32.18 | 45.71 | 18.66 | 28.57 – 35.8 |
| 2030 | 33.44 | 50.91 | 15.98 | 28.09 – 38.79 |
| 2035 | 36.59 | 61.29 | 11.89 | 26.96 – 46.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.71· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.83typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.11 | 10.68 | -5 | 1.38 – 4.84 |
| 2029 | 4.6 | 17.72 | -5 | 1.48 – 7.73 |
| 2031 | 6.1 | 23.03 | -5 | 1.86 – 10.34 |
| 2036 | 9.84 | 33.78 | -5 | 2.96 – 16.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.73 | 12.81 | -5 | 0.45 – 5.01 |
| 2029 | 2.57 | 20.02 | -5 | -1.42 – 6.56 |
| 2031 | 2.51 | 25.05 | -5 | -2.68 – 7.71 |
| 2036 | 2.48 | 34.35 | -5 | -4.98 – 9.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.99 | 24.19 | 20.09 | 21.31 – 22.68 |
| 2028 | 22.51 | 26.32 | 19.21 | 20.85 – 24.18 |
| 2030 | 23.03 | 27.95 | 18.77 | 20.42 – 25.65 |
| 2035 | 24.33 | 31.29 | 18.3 | 19.28 – 29.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.81typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed58.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 58.9m | 61.7m | 56.3m | 57.1m – 60.7m |
| 2029 | 58.9m | 61.6m | 56.3m | 54.5m – 63.2m |
| 2031 | 58.8m | 61.6m | 56.2m | 52.1m – 65.5m |
| 2036 | 58.7m | 61.5m | 56.1m | 46.5m – 70.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead58.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.75 | 15 | -10 | -1.43 – 2.93 |
| 2028 | 0.69 | 15 | -10 | -3.1 – 4.48 |
| 2030 | 0.63 | 15 | -10 | -4.28 – 5.54 |
| 2035 | 0.48 | 15 | -10 | -6.51 – 7.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.95· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.71typical miss · 1 realized · 338% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed89.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 92.5bn | 107bn | 78bn | 88.8bn – 96.2bn |
| 2028 | 100bn | 125.2bn | 74.8bn | 91.4bn – 108.7bn |
| 2030 | 107.5bn | 140bn | 75bn | 93.9bn – 121.1bn |
| 2035 | 126.2bn | 172.2bn | 80.3bn | 99bn – 153.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead90.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.07 | 6.64 | 3.49 | 4.74 – 5.39 |
| 2028 | 4.35 | 7.08 | 1.62 | 3.72 – 4.98 |
| 2030 | 4 | 7.52 | 0.47 | 3.14 – 4.86 |
| 2035 | 3.72 | 8.7 | 0 | 2.36 – 5.07 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed434bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 475.6bn | 562.3bn | 388.9bn | 454.7bn – 496.5bn |
| 2028 | 581.5bn | 731.7bn | 431.3bn | 530.6bn – 632.4bn |
| 2030 | 687.3bn | 881.2bn | 493.4bn | 602.7bn – 772bn |
| 2035 | 952bn | 1.2T | 677.8bn | 754.5bn – 1.1T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead466.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.32 | 6.29 | 4.35 | 5.09 – 5.56 |
| 2029 | 3.97 | 5.65 | 2.29 | 3.53 – 4.42 |
| 2031 | 2.62 | 4.79 | 0.45 | 2.08 – 3.16 |
| 2036 | 0 | 3.07 | 0 | 0 – 0.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.65· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/ITA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 139.28 | 2025 (2.6T) |
| 2029 | 142.97 | 2026 (2.7T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 88.7839 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.628 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.62 | 2024 (134.7) |
| 2028 | 1.81 | 2025 (137.1) |
| 2029 | 1.92 | 2026 (138.4) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -9.4297 + 0.082·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.612 over 64 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.2 | 2024 (2.4T) |
| 2028 | -0.49 | 2025 (2.6T) |
| 2029 | -1.26 | 2026 (2.7T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 9.9687 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.594 over 66 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.27 | 2026 (2.7T) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 4.6192 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.56 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.4T | 2026 (0.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1514456901404.435 + -155449953941.7409·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/ITA?indicator= · API docs
