Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Jamaica: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Jamaica's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.872 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.87 | 2025 (67.7) |
Latest observed-6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -6.11 | 0.12 | -12.33 | -7.48 – -4.74 |
| 2029 | -6.32 | 4.46 | -17.1 | -8.83 – -3.82 |
| 2031 | -6.54 | 7.38 | -20.46 | -9.9 – -3.17 |
| 2036 | -7.07 | 12.62 | -26.76 | -12.22 – -1.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-6.48· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 23.6bn | 26.8bn | 20.9bn | 22.9bn – 24.4bn |
| 2029 | 25.3bn | 30.7bn | 20.5bn | 23.4bn – 27.1bn |
| 2031 | 26.9bn | 33.9bn | 20.8bn | 23.8bn – 29.9bn |
| 2036 | 31bn | 40.9bn | 22.3bn | 24.5bn – 37.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.83 | 2.09 | -5.23 | -2.51 – -1.15 |
| 2029 | -3.48 | 3.31 | -9.36 | -4.78 – -2.18 |
| 2031 | -5.12 | 3.64 | -10 | -7 – -3.25 |
| 2036 | -9.24 | 3.16 | -10 | -10 – -5.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.21· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.6k | 9.7k | 7.6k | 8.3k – 8.9k |
| 2029 | 9.3k | 11.2k | 7.6k | 8.6k – 10k |
| 2031 | 10k | 12.4k | 7.8k | 8.8k – 11.1k |
| 2036 | 11.7k | 15.2k | 8.6k | 9.3k – 14.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 61.83 | 77.66 | 43.57 | 58.41 – 65.26 |
| 2029 | 53.9 | 81.32 | 22.27 | 47.1 – 60.71 |
| 2031 | 45.97 | 81.36 | 5.13 | 36.85 – 55.09 |
| 2036 | 26.14 | 76.19 | 0 | 14.26 – 38.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead63.5· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.11 | 13.04 | 0.76 | 5.69 – 8.54 |
| 2029 | 10.05 | 20.32 | -0.95 | 7.29 – 12.81 |
| 2031 | 12.98 | 26.24 | -1.22 | 9 – 16.96 |
| 2036 | 20.32 | 39.06 | 0.23 | 12.91 – 27.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.81· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.7m | 2.9m | 2.6m | 2.7m – 2.8m |
| 2029 | 2.7m | 2.8m | 2.5m | 2.5m – 2.9m |
| 2031 | 2.6m | 2.7m | 2.5m | 2.3m – 2.9m |
| 2036 | 2.3m | 2.5m | 2.2m | 1.9m – 2.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.57 | 6.69 | -6.01 | -1.49 – 0.35 |
| 2028 | -0.86 | 11.71 | -10 | -2.47 – 0.76 |
| 2030 | -1.14 | 15 | -10 | -3.26 – 0.98 |
| 2035 | -1.86 | 15 | -10 | -5.03 – 1.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.04typical miss · 1 realized · 264% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.7bn | 7.5bn | 6bn | 6.5bn – 6.9bn |
| 2028 | 7.8bn | 9.1bn | 6.4bn | 7.2bn – 8.3bn |
| 2030 | 8.8bn | 10.5bn | 7.1bn | 7.8bn – 9.8bn |
| 2035 | 11.4bn | 13.8bn | 9bn | 9bn – 13.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.47(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 6.23 | 8.41 | 4.06 | 5.8 – 6.67 |
| 2027 | 5.95 | 9.72 | 2.18 | 5.08 – 6.81 |
| 2029 | 5.81 | 10.67 | 0.94 | 4.6 – 7.02 |
| 2034 | 5.7 | 12.58 | 0 | 3.73 – 7.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.6· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.7bn | 7.5bn | 6bn | 6.5bn – 6.9bn |
| 2028 | 7.8bn | 9.1bn | 6.4bn | 7.2bn – 8.3bn |
| 2030 | 8.8bn | 10.5bn | 7.1bn | 7.8bn – 9.8bn |
| 2035 | 11.4bn | 13.8bn | 9bn | 9bn – 13.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.62 | 3.87 | 1.37 | 2.39 – 2.86 |
| 2028 | 1.29 | 3.46 | 0 | 0.9 – 1.69 |
| 2030 | 0 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 – 0.51 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.96 | 0 | 0 – 0.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.95· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/JAM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 |
| 3.74 |
| 2026 (65.8) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ -0.6803 + 0.0672·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.859 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 106.65 | 2026 (-6) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 83.627 + -3.8367·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.726 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.4bn | 2024 (3.15) |
| 2028 | 15.3bn | 2025 (3.29) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 17158253290.3551 + -570577696.6403·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.573 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.32 | 2026 (65.8) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 8.4632 + -0.1335·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/JAM?indicator= · API docs
