Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Jamaica: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Jamaica's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.872 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.75 | 2025 (66) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed-5.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.13 | 5.39 | -1.12 | 1.44 – 2.83 |
| 2028 | 3.4 | 9.04 | -2.24 | 2.09 – 4.72 |
| 2030 | 4.67 | 11.96 | -2.61 | 2.81 – 6.53 |
| 2035 | 7.85 | 18.14 | -2.45 | 4.49 – 11.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.23typical miss · 1 realized · 142% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.6bn | 26.8bn | 20.9bn | 22.9bn – 24.4bn |
| 2028 | 25.9bn | 31.4bn | 21.2bn | 24bn – 27.9bn |
| 2030 | 28.2bn | 35.3bn | 22.1bn | 25bn – 31.4bn |
| 2035 | 34bn | 44bn | 25.3bn | 27bn – 41.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±284.7mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.48 | 12 | -10 | -2.75 – 1.79 |
| 2028 | -1.71 | 12 | -10 | -5.69 – 2.28 |
| 2030 | -2.94 | 12 | -10 | -8.21 – 2.34 |
| 2035 | -6.01 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 2.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.75· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.48typical miss · 1 realized
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.3k | 9.4k | 7.3k | 8.1k – 8.6k |
| 2028 | 9.1k | 11.1k | 7.4k | 8.5k – 9.8k |
| 2030 | 9.9k | 12.5k | 7.8k | 8.8k – 11.1k |
| 2035 | 12k | 15.5k | 8.9k | 9.5k – 14.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±354.81typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed64.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.32 | 77.49 | 42.65 | 57.85 – 64.79 |
| 2028 | 51.95 | 79.97 | 19.62 | 45.14 – 58.75 |
| 2030 | 42.58 | 78.76 | 0.84 | 33.61 – 51.55 |
| 2035 | 19.16 | 70.32 | 0 | 8.23 – 30.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead61.97· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.98typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6 | 9.23 | -2.42 | 2.3 – 4.91 |
| 2028 | 1.63 | 11.37 | -5 | -0.6 – 3.87 |
| 2030 | -0.34 | 12.24 | -5 | -3.2 – 2.53 |
| 2035 | -5 | 12.78 | -5 | -5 – -0.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.3typical miss · 1 realized · 39% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8m | 3m | 2.7m | 2.7m – 2.9m |
| 2028 | 2.8m | 3m | 2.7m | 2.6m – 3m |
| 2030 | 2.8m | 3m | 2.7m | 2.5m – 3.2m |
| 2035 | 2.8m | 3m | 2.7m | 2.2m – 3.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±80.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.57 | 6.69 | -6.01 | -1.49 – 0.35 |
| 2028 | -0.86 | 11.71 | -10 | -2.47 – 0.76 |
| 2030 | -1.14 | 15 | -10 | -3.26 – 0.98 |
| 2035 | -1.86 | 15 | -10 | -5.03 – 1.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.27· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.04typical miss · 1 realized · 264% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.7bn | 7.5bn | 6bn | 6.5bn – 6.9bn |
| 2028 | 7.8bn | 9.1bn | 6.4bn | 7.2bn – 8.3bn |
| 2030 | 8.8bn | 10.5bn | 7.1bn | 7.8bn – 9.8bn |
| 2035 | 11.4bn | 13.8bn | 9bn | 9bn – 13.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.75 | 8.91 | 4.59 | 6.31 – 7.18 |
| 2028 | 6.32 | 10.06 | 2.58 | 5.44 – 7.19 |
| 2030 | 6.11 | 10.94 | 1.28 | 4.88 – 7.34 |
| 2035 | 5.94 | 12.77 | 0 | 3.94 – 7.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.87typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.7bn | 7.5bn | 6bn | 6.5bn – 6.9bn |
| 2028 | 7.8bn | 9.1bn | 6.4bn | 7.2bn – 8.3bn |
| 2030 | 8.8bn | 10.5bn | 7.1bn | 7.8bn – 9.8bn |
| 2035 | 11.4bn | 13.8bn | 9bn | 9bn – 13.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.62 | 3.87 | 1.37 | 2.39 – 2.86 |
| 2028 | 1.29 | 3.46 | 0 | 0.9 – 1.69 |
| 2030 | 0 | 2.8 | 0 | 0 – 0.51 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.96 | 0 | 0 – 0.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.95· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/JAM · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.851 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 79.01 | 2025 (1.5) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 84.6161 + -3.7394·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.722 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.1bn | 2023 (3.02) |
| 2027 | 15bn | 2024 (3.15) |
| 2028 | 14.9bn | 2025 (3.29) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 16701483633.4115 + -545049661.4228·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.61 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.58 | 2025 (66) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 10.5003 + -0.1504·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/JAM?indicator= · API docs
