Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Japan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Japan's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.809 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 145.39 | 2023 (4.4T) |
Latest observed4.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.1 | 7.15 | 3.05 | 4.6 – 5.6 |
| 2028 | 5.5 | 9.04 | 1.96 | 4.51 – 6.49 |
| 2030 | 5.9 | 10.48 | 1.32 | 4.49 – 7.31 |
| 2035 | 6.9 | 13.37 | 0.43 | 4.48 – 9.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.5typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.98(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.72 | 26.11 | 19.78 | 21.87 – 23.57 |
| 2027 | 24.2 | 30.08 | 19.11 | 22.2 – 26.2 |
| 2029 | 25.69 | 33.27 | 19.11 | 22.55 – 28.82 |
| 2034 | 29.39 | 40.12 | 20.1 | 23.16 – 35.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.48· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.4T | 5T | 3.8T | 4.2T – 4.5T |
| 2028 | 4.2T | 5.3T | 3.3T | 3.9T – 4.6T |
| 2030 | 4.1T | 5.5T | 2.8T | 3.6T – 4.6T |
| 2035 | 3.7T | 5.7T | 1.9T | 2.8T – 4.5T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.3T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±35.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.46 | 8.97 | -5.05 | 0.19 – 2.73 |
| 2028 | 2.09 | 12 | -9.18 | -0.18 – 4.35 |
| 2030 | 2.71 | 12 | -10 | -0.3 – 5.73 |
| 2035 | 4.28 | 12 | -10 | -0.36 – 8.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.76typical miss · 1 realized · 109% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.6k | 40.7k | 31.2k | 34.4k – 36.8k |
| 2028 | 34.6k | 43.4k | 27k | 31.9k – 37.3k |
| 2030 | 33.7k | 45k | 23.8k | 29.6k – 37.7k |
| 2035 | 31.2k | 47.3k | 17.3k | 24.3k – 38.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±204.89typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed199.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 206.25 | 222.98 | 186.94 | 199.85 – 212.64 |
| 2028 | 209.14 | 238.13 | 175.7 | 193.67 – 224.61 |
| 2030 | 212.04 | 249.46 | 168.86 | 187.96 – 236.11 |
| 2035 | 219.27 | 272.19 | 158.21 | 173.79 – 264.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead197.91· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.85typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.87(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 23.96 | 29.14 | 18.78 | 22.78 – 25.14 |
| 2027 | 26.13 | 35.1 | 17.17 | 23.51 – 28.76 |
| 2029 | 28.31 | 39.88 | 16.73 | 24.27 – 32.34 |
| 2034 | 33.74 | 50.11 | 17.37 | 25.83 – 41.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.38· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.35 | 5.67 | 0.87 | 2.78 – 3.92 |
| 2028 | 3.96 | 7.97 | -0.34 | 2.88 – 5.04 |
| 2030 | 4.57 | 9.75 | -0.99 | 3.05 – 6.08 |
| 2035 | 6.09 | 13.42 | -1.77 | 3.49 – 8.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.35typical miss · 1 realized · 68% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.81(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 27.99 | 29.46 | 26.72 | 27.12 – 28.86 |
| 2027 | 28.42 | 29.91 | 27.13 | 26.32 – 30.52 |
| 2029 | 28.85 | 30.36 | 27.54 | 25.57 – 32.12 |
| 2034 | 29.92 | 31.86 | 28.24 | 23.71 – 36.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed123.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 123.5m | 129.3m | 118.1m | 119.7m – 127.3m |
| 2028 | 122.8m | 128.6m | 117.4m | 113.8m – 131.9m |
| 2030 | 122.2m | 127.9m | 116.8m | 108.3m – 136m |
| 2035 | 120.5m | 126.2m | 115.2m | 95.5m – 145.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead122.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±852.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.29 | 9.01 | -4.51 | 0.3 – 2.27 |
| 2028 | 1.66 | 15 | -8.37 | -0.09 – 3.41 |
| 2030 | 2.04 | 15 | -10 | -0.28 – 4.36 |
| 2035 | 2.98 | 15 | -10 | -0.55 – 6.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.91typical miss · 1 realized · 162% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.3T | 1.4T | 1.1T | 1.2T – 1.3T |
| 2028 | 1.3T | 1.6T | 960.8bn | 1.2T – 1.4T |
| 2030 | 1.3T | 1.7T | 880bn | 1.1T – 1.4T |
| 2035 | 1.3T | 1.8T | 736.6bn | 999.2bn – 1.6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.33 | 18.19 | 10.47 | 13.51 – 15.15 |
| 2028 | 14.71 | 21.4 | 8.02 | 12.98 – 16.44 |
| 2030 | 14.9 | 23.53 | 6.27 | 12.38 – 17.41 |
| 2035 | 15.05 | 27.25 | 2.84 | 10.77 – 19.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.84· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4T | 1.6T | 1.2T | 1.3T – 1.4T |
| 2028 | 1.4T | 1.8T | 1.1T | 1.3T – 1.6T |
| 2030 | 1.5T | 1.9T | 1T | 1.3T – 1.7T |
| 2035 | 1.6T | 2.2T | 974.9bn | 1.2T – 1.9T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.37 | 2.57 | 2.18 | 2.3 – 2.45 |
| 2028 | 2.22 | 2.46 | 1.98 | 2.05 – 2.38 |
| 2030 | 2.06 | 2.37 | 1.75 | 1.83 – 2.3 |
| 2035 | 1.67 | 2.11 | 1.24 | 1.32 – 2.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.48· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.13typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/JPN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 139.09 | 2024 (4.2T) |
| 2028 | 147.01 | 2025 (4.4T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 3.6014 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.733 over 63 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.6T | 2024 (-0.24) |
| 2027 | 4T | 2025 (1.19) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 4501054414284.428 + -391600848269.1128·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.705 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.49 | 2025 (4.4T) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 7.1266 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.695 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.09 | 2025 (4.4T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 6.8088 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.635 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.58 | 2025 (3.17) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.7606 + -0.3725·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/JPN?indicator= · API docs
