Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Kazakhstan: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Kazakhstan's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.941 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.9 | 2024 (-2.3) |
Latest observed0.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.09 | 3.3 | -11.49 | -5.67 – -2.52 |
| 2028 | -4.08 | 8.72 | -16.88 | -6.89 – -1.27 |
| 2030 | -4.07 | 12.46 | -20.6 | -7.77 – -0.37 |
| 2035 | -4.04 | 19.33 | -27.42 | -9.46 – 1.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.59typical miss · 1 realized · 919% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.59(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 31.56 | 42.6 | 22 | 29.48 – 33.64 |
| 2027 | 31.51 | 50.63 | 14.95 | 27.27 – 35.76 |
| 2029 | 31.47 | 56.14 | 10.08 | 25.42 – 37.51 |
| 2034 | 31.34 | 66.24 | 1.1 | 21.34 – 41.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed306.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 326.1bn | 359bn | 297.6bn | 316bn – 336.2bn |
| 2028 | 375.2bn | 432.2bn | 325.9bn | 347.5bn – 403bn |
| 2030 | 424.4bn | 498bn | 360.7bn | 376.2bn – 472.6bn |
| 2035 | 547.4bn | 651.4bn | 457.2bn | 433.8bn – 660.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead425.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±71.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.3 | 12 | 2.34 | 6.23 – 8.37 |
| 2028 | 9.23 | 12 | 0.64 | 7.14 – 11.33 |
| 2030 | 11.16 | 12 | 0.08 | 8.14 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -3.68 | 7.06 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.9typical miss · 1 realized · 66% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.5k | 17.1k | 14.1k | 15k – 16k |
| 2028 | 17.6k | 20.4k | 15.2k | 16.3k – 18.9k |
| 2030 | 19.7k | 23.3k | 16.5k | 17.4k – 21.9k |
| 2035 | 24.9k | 30k | 20.4k | 19.7k – 30k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.8ktypical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.88 | 29.03 | 20.1 | 23.85 – 25.92 |
| 2028 | 26.04 | 33.23 | 17.76 | 23.69 – 28.4 |
| 2030 | 27.21 | 36.48 | 16.51 | 23.6 – 30.81 |
| 2035 | 30.11 | 43.23 | 14.98 | 23.28 – 36.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.08typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.57(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 25.7 | 29.21 | 22.18 | 24.75 – 26.65 |
| 2027 | 25.95 | 32.04 | 19.86 | 23.77 – 28.13 |
| 2029 | 26.2 | 34.06 | 18.34 | 22.9 – 29.5 |
| 2034 | 26.82 | 37.94 | 15.71 | 20.83 – 32.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.58· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.94 | 21.47 | 3.8 | 10.84 – 15.04 |
| 2028 | 16.72 | 31.5 | 0.89 | 12.64 – 20.8 |
| 2030 | 20.51 | 39.59 | 0.06 | 14.64 – 26.38 |
| 2035 | 29.97 | 50 | 1.06 | 19.19 – 40.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.64typical miss · 1 realized · 26% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed24.32(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 24.78 | 28.16 | 21.84 | 23.9 – 25.66 |
| 2027 | 25.85 | 31.71 | 20.77 | 23.77 – 27.93 |
| 2029 | 26.92 | 34.49 | 20.36 | 23.69 – 30.16 |
| 2034 | 29.6 | 40.31 | 20.32 | 23.33 – 35.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.49· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.8m | 21.7m | 19.9m | 20.1m – 21.4m |
| 2028 | 21m | 22m | 20.1m | 19.5m – 22.6m |
| 2030 | 21.3m | 22.3m | 20.4m | 18.9m – 23.7m |
| 2035 | 22m | 23.1m | 21m | 17.4m – 26.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±162ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.7 | 15 | 3.06 | 9.25 – 12.14 |
| 2028 | 14.63 | 15 | 1.41 | 11.72 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -2.07 | 10.96 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -9.13 | 8.58 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.99typical miss · 1 realized · 65% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 19.4bn | 27.1bn | 11.6bn | 17.9bn – 20.9bn |
| 2028 | 22.2bn | 35.6bn | 8.8bn | 19.1bn – 25.3bn |
| 2030 | 25bn | 42.3bn | 7.7bn | 20.3bn – 29.6bn |
| 2035 | 32bn | 56.4bn | 7.5bn | 23.1bn – 40.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.39(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.86 | 9.36 | 4.35 | 6.36 – 7.35 |
| 2028 | 6.23 | 10.57 | 1.88 | 5.26 – 7.19 |
| 2030 | 5.92 | 11.52 | 0.31 | 4.59 – 7.25 |
| 2035 | 5.67 | 13.6 | 0 | 3.55 – 7.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.61· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed66.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.2bn | 86.7bn | 57.7bn | 68.8bn – 75.6bn |
| 2028 | 87.7bn | 112.8bn | 62.6bn | 79.6bn – 95.7bn |
| 2030 | 103.2bn | 135.6bn | 70.8bn | 90bn – 116.4bn |
| 2035 | 141.9bn | 187.8bn | 96.1bn | 112.2bn – 171.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead70.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.69 | 5.55 | 3.83 | 4.48 – 4.9 |
| 2028 | 4.53 | 6.02 | 3.04 | 4.08 – 4.97 |
| 2030 | 4.37 | 6.29 | 2.44 | 3.72 – 5.01 |
| 2035 | 3.96 | 6.68 | 1.24 | 2.91 – 5.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.49· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.09typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/KAZ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 95.11 | 2025 (-4.1) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -39.7673 + -32.8973·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.731 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.97 | 2023 (261.8bn) |
| 2027 | 26.94 | 2024 (291.5bn) |
| 2028 | 27.91 | 2025 (306.2bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 7.6386 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.715 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.21 | 2025 (11.38) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 5.3088 + -0.0089·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.694 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.79 | 2023 (261.8bn) |
| 2027 | 1.98 | 2024 (291.5bn) |
| 2028 | 1.57 | 2025 (306.2bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 10.006 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/KAZ?indicator= · API docs
