Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Kenya: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Kenya's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.958 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.61 | 2025 (69.3) |
Latest observed-4.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.08 | -1.8 | -6.36 | -4.61 – -3.55 |
| 2029 | -4.05 | -0.1 | -8 | -5.05 – -3.05 |
| 2031 | -4.01 | 1.09 | -9.11 | -5.37 – -2.65 |
| 2036 | -3.92 | 3.29 | -11.13 | -6.02 – -1.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-4.32· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.58 | 19.38 | 14.15 | 15.91 – 17.24 |
| 2028 | 18.21 | 23.05 | 14 | 16.64 – 19.77 |
| 2030 | 19.83 | 26.09 | 14.41 | 17.35 – 22.31 |
| 2035 | 23.9 | 32.75 | 16.23 | 18.81 – 28.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.1typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed135.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 156.1bn | 171.4bn | 142.7bn | 151.2bn – 160.9bn |
| 2029 | 177.3bn | 203.9bn | 154.2bn | 164.2bn – 190.4bn |
| 2031 | 198.5bn | 232.9bn | 168.7bn | 176bn – 221.1bn |
| 2036 | 251.6bn | 300.2bn | 209.5bn | 199.4bn – 303.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead154.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.31 | 6.87 | 2.09 | 3.82 – 4.81 |
| 2029 | 3.84 | 8.27 | -0 | 2.92 – 4.76 |
| 2031 | 3.37 | 9.09 | -1.59 | 2.14 – 4.59 |
| 2036 | 2.18 | 10.28 | -4.83 | 0.49 – 3.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.22· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.9k | 3.2k | 2.6k | 2.8k – 3k |
| 2029 | 3.2k | 3.8k | 2.7k | 3k – 3.5k |
| 2031 | 3.6k | 4.4k | 3k | 3.2k – 4k |
| 2036 | 4.5k | 5.6k | 3.6k | 3.6k – 5.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed71.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 73.46 | 80.53 | 65.29 | 71.18 – 75.73 |
| 2029 | 77.17 | 89.42 | 63.03 | 71.46 – 82.88 |
| 2031 | 80.88 | 96.7 | 62.63 | 71.7 – 90.07 |
| 2036 | 90.17 | 112.54 | 64.35 | 71.47 – 108.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73.13· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.13 | 25.59 | 18.67 | 21.25 – 23.02 |
| 2028 | 22.88 | 28.88 | 16.88 | 20.87 – 24.9 |
| 2030 | 23.63 | 31.38 | 15.89 | 20.56 – 26.71 |
| 2035 | 25.51 | 36.46 | 14.56 | 19.75 – 31.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.71· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.67typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.75 | 10.39 | 2.86 | 5.84 – 7.67 |
| 2029 | 9.32 | 15.62 | 2.57 | 7.47 – 11.16 |
| 2031 | 11.88 | 20.01 | 3.16 | 9.13 – 14.63 |
| 2036 | 18.29 | 29.79 | 5.96 | 12.81 – 23.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.99· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.74 | 19.04 | 16.61 | 17.19 – 18.29 |
| 2028 | 17.29 | 19.54 | 15.33 | 16.01 – 18.56 |
| 2030 | 16.83 | 19.74 | 14.31 | 14.92 – 18.75 |
| 2035 | 15.71 | 19.82 | 12.14 | 12.45 – 18.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.84typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 53.5m | 56.1m | 51.2m | 51.9m – 55.2m |
| 2029 | 50m | 54.4m | 45.8m | 46.3m – 53.6m |
| 2031 | 46.4m | 52.1m | 41.1m | 41.1m – 51.6m |
| 2036 | 37.4m | 45.5m | 29.9m | 29.6m – 45.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.59 | 10.51 | -5.11 | 0.44 – 2.73 |
| 2028 | 1.25 | 15 | -10 | -0.75 – 3.24 |
| 2030 | 0.91 | 15 | -10 | -1.67 – 3.48 |
| 2035 | 0.06 | 15 | -10 | -3.63 – 3.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.39typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.3bn | 16.3bn | 10.3bn | 12.6bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 15.5bn | 20.6bn | 10.4bn | 14bn – 17bn |
| 2030 | 17.7bn | 24.3bn | 11.1bn | 15.3bn – 20.1bn |
| 2035 | 23.2bn | 32.6bn | 13.8bn | 18.1bn – 28.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.03(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.13 | 5.43 | 2.83 | 3.86 – 4.39 |
| 2027 | 4.24 | 6.49 | 1.99 | 3.7 – 4.79 |
| 2029 | 4.3 | 7.21 | 1.4 | 3.51 – 5.09 |
| 2034 | 4.35 | 8.45 | 0.24 | 3.02 – 5.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.86· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.3bn | 16.3bn | 10.3bn | 12.6bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 15.5bn | 20.6bn | 10.4bn | 14bn – 17bn |
| 2030 | 17.7bn | 24.3bn | 11.1bn | 15.3bn – 20.1bn |
| 2035 | 23.2bn | 32.6bn | 13.9bn | 18.1bn – 28.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 5.67 | 5.14 | 5.24 – 5.57 |
| 2028 | 5.31 | 5.65 | 4.98 | 4.92 – 5.71 |
| 2030 | 5.22 | 5.66 | 4.79 | 4.63 – 5.81 |
| 2035 | 4.99 | 5.61 | 4.38 | 3.96 – 6.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.45· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/KEN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 |
| 5.82 |
| 2026 (71.6) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ -0.7491 + 0.0918·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.859 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 129.6bn | 2026 (71.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -69619933506.7056 + 2781814043.2069·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.538 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -2.96 | 2026 (4.5) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 0.731 + -0.8194·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/KEN?indicator= · API docs
