Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Kenya: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Kenya's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.958 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.79 | 2025 (71.3) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed-4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.72 | -0.32 | -5.11 | -3.25 – -2.18 |
| 2028 | -2.55 | 1.6 | -6.7 | -3.52 – -1.58 |
| 2030 | -2.38 | 2.98 | -7.74 | -3.67 – -1.1 |
| 2035 | -1.97 | 5.62 | -9.55 | -3.83 – -0.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-4.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.78typical miss · 1 realized · 40% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed15.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.58 | 19.38 | 14.15 | 15.91 – 17.24 |
| 2028 | 18.21 | 23.05 | 14 | 16.64 – 19.77 |
| 2030 | 19.83 | 26.09 | 14.41 | 17.35 – 22.31 |
| 2035 | 23.9 | 32.75 | 16.23 | 18.81 – 28.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.1typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed135.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 141.1bn | 156bn | 128.1bn | 136.7bn – 145.5bn |
| 2028 | 154.5bn | 180.4bn | 132.1bn | 143.1bn – 165.9bn |
| 2030 | 167.9bn | 201.3bn | 138.9bn | 148.8bn – 186.9bn |
| 2035 | 201.4bn | 248.6bn | 160.4bn | 159.6bn – 243.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead158.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.47 | 12 | -2.16 | 3.12 – 5.82 |
| 2028 | 4.16 | 12 | -7.33 | 1.75 – 6.56 |
| 2030 | 3.84 | 12 | -10 | 0.68 – 7 |
| 2035 | 3.06 | 12 | -10 | -1.46 – 7.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.22· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.03typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4k | 2.7k | 2.2k | 2.3k – 2.5k |
| 2028 | 2.6k | 3k | 2.2k | 2.4k – 2.8k |
| 2030 | 2.7k | 3.3k | 2.2k | 2.4k – 3k |
| 2035 | 3.1k | 4k | 2.4k | 2.5k – 3.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±364.23typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 73.68 | 80.89 | 65.36 | 71.39 – 75.97 |
| 2028 | 78.45 | 90.94 | 64.04 | 72.65 – 84.25 |
| 2030 | 83.22 | 99.34 | 64.61 | 73.77 – 92.66 |
| 2035 | 95.13 | 117.93 | 68.82 | 75.4 – 114.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead74.61· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.78typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.13 | 25.59 | 18.67 | 21.25 – 23.02 |
| 2028 | 22.88 | 28.88 | 16.88 | 20.87 – 24.9 |
| 2030 | 23.63 | 31.38 | 15.89 | 20.56 – 26.71 |
| 2035 | 25.51 | 36.46 | 14.56 | 19.75 – 31.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.71· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.67typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.17 | 7.43 | 0.69 | 3.38 – 4.96 |
| 2028 | 3.58 | 9.22 | -2.45 | 2.16 – 5.01 |
| 2030 | 3 | 10.27 | -4.8 | 1.14 – 4.85 |
| 2035 | 1.52 | 11.81 | -5 | -1 – 4.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.83typical miss · 1 realized · 30% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 17.74 | 19.04 | 16.61 | 17.19 – 18.29 |
| 2028 | 17.29 | 19.54 | 15.33 | 16.01 – 18.56 |
| 2030 | 16.83 | 19.74 | 14.31 | 14.92 – 18.75 |
| 2035 | 15.71 | 19.82 | 12.14 | 12.45 – 18.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.84typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed57.5m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.2m | 60m | 54.7m | 55.5m – 59m |
| 2028 | 58.5m | 61.2m | 55.9m | 54.1m – 62.8m |
| 2030 | 59.7m | 62.5m | 57m | 52.9m – 66.4m |
| 2035 | 62.7m | 65.7m | 59.9m | 49.7m – 75.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3mtypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.71(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.59 | 10.51 | -5.11 | 0.44 – 2.73 |
| 2028 | 1.25 | 15 | -10 | -0.75 – 3.24 |
| 2030 | 0.91 | 15 | -10 | -1.67 – 3.48 |
| 2035 | 0.06 | 15 | -10 | -3.63 – 3.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.39typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.3bn | 16.3bn | 10.3bn | 12.6bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 15.5bn | 20.6bn | 10.4bn | 14bn – 17bn |
| 2030 | 17.7bn | 24.3bn | 11.1bn | 15.3bn – 20.1bn |
| 2035 | 23.2bn | 32.6bn | 13.8bn | 18.1bn – 28.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.54 | 5.88 | 3.2 | 4.26 – 4.82 |
| 2028 | 4.43 | 6.75 | 2.11 | 3.86 – 5 |
| 2030 | 4.38 | 7.37 | 1.39 | 3.57 – 5.19 |
| 2035 | 4.34 | 8.57 | 0.1 | 2.99 – 5.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.5typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed12.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.3bn | 16.3bn | 10.3bn | 12.6bn – 14bn |
| 2028 | 15.5bn | 20.6bn | 10.4bn | 14bn – 17bn |
| 2030 | 17.7bn | 24.3bn | 11.1bn | 15.3bn – 20.1bn |
| 2035 | 23.2bn | 32.6bn | 13.9bn | 18.1bn – 28.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 5.67 | 5.14 | 5.24 – 5.57 |
| 2028 | 5.31 | 5.65 | 4.98 | 4.92 – 5.71 |
| 2030 | 5.22 | 5.66 | 4.79 | 4.63 – 5.81 |
| 2035 | 4.99 | 5.61 | 4.38 | 3.96 – 6.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.45· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/KEN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.934 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.61 | 2025 (5.45) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 10.5103 + 10.8457·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.841 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 124.6bn | 2025 (71.3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -64251939602.9755 + 2648532441.2885·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.538 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.05 | 2025 (4.63) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 0.7414 + -0.8185·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/KEN?indicator= · API docs
