Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Kyrgyz Republic: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Kyrgyz Republic's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.872 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5bn | 2023 (3.5) |
Latest observed-9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -28.8 | 4.75 | -30 | -30 – -21.49 |
| 2028 | -30 | 28.1 | -30 | -30 – -16.7 |
| 2030 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -12.29 |
| 2035 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -3.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-8.81· skill-weighted across models
Track record±19.8typical miss · 1 realized · 220% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.59 | 49.33 | 8.75 | 24.04 – 31.14 |
| 2028 | 29.15 | 66.81 | 0 | 22.37 – 35.93 |
| 2030 | 30.7 | 79.32 | 0 | 21.3 – 40.11 |
| 2035 | 34.6 | 103.35 | 0 | 19.24 – 49.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±18.25typical miss · 1 realized · 68% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.9bn | 28.5bn | 21.8bn | 24.1bn – 25.7bn |
| 2028 | 30.6bn | 36.8bn | 25.3bn | 28.4bn – 32.9bn |
| 2030 | 36.4bn | 44.4bn | 29.4bn | 32.2bn – 40.5bn |
| 2035 | 50.7bn | 62bn | 40.9bn | 40.2bn – 61.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12 | 12 | 3.38 | 10.15 – 12 |
| 2028 | 12 | 12 | -2.93 | 8.55 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -7.27 | 7.33 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.84 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.1· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3typical miss · 1 realized · 33% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.4k | 3.9k | 2.9k | 3.3k – 3.5k |
| 2028 | 4.1k | 4.9k | 3.3k | 3.8k – 4.4k |
| 2030 | 4.8k | 5.9k | 3.9k | 4.3k – 5.4k |
| 2035 | 6.6k | 8.2k | 5.3k | 5.2k – 8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±256.1typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.9 | 49.59 | 22.25 | 34.35 – 39.44 |
| 2028 | 31.89 | 53.89 | 6.52 | 26.98 – 36.81 |
| 2030 | 26.89 | 55.28 | 0 | 20.37 – 33.41 |
| 2035 | 14.38 | 54.53 | 0 | 5.9 – 22.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.96· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.9typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed65.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.71 | 96.96 | 40.45 | 63.28 – 74.13 |
| 2028 | 74.93 | 123.87 | 25.99 | 63.84 – 86.02 |
| 2030 | 81.15 | 144.33 | 17.97 | 64.99 – 97.32 |
| 2035 | 96.71 | 150 | 7.36 | 67.56 – 125.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead64.45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±22.9typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.08 | 18.59 | 0.95 | 8.03 – 12.12 |
| 2028 | 14.58 | 29.33 | -1.23 | 10.61 – 18.55 |
| 2030 | 19.08 | 38.13 | -1.32 | 13.34 – 24.83 |
| 2035 | 30.34 | 50 | 1.49 | 19.52 – 41.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead13.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.62typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.04 | 30.57 | 22.12 | 24.98 – 27.1 |
| 2028 | 26.64 | 34.48 | 19.85 | 24.24 – 29.04 |
| 2030 | 27.24 | 37.36 | 18.47 | 23.62 – 30.87 |
| 2035 | 28.74 | 43.06 | 16.34 | 22.1 – 35.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.33· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.29typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.3m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.3m | 7.7m | 7m | 7.1m – 7.5m |
| 2028 | 7.4m | 7.8m | 7.1m | 6.9m – 8m |
| 2030 | 7.6m | 7.9m | 7.2m | 6.7m – 8.4m |
| 2035 | 7.9m | 8.3m | 7.6m | 6.3m – 9.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±62.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.74 | 15 | 1.25 | 8.17 – 11.31 |
| 2028 | 12.21 | 15 | -2.5 | 9.17 – 15 |
| 2030 | 14.67 | 15 | -4.31 | 10.34 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 8.13 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.55typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.2bn | 2.8bn | 1.6bn | 2.1bn – 2.4bn |
| 2028 | 2.4bn | 3.5bn | 1.3bn | 2.1bn – 2.7bn |
| 2030 | 2.5bn | 3.9bn | 1.2bn | 2.1bn – 3bn |
| 2035 | 2.9bn | 4.9bn | 976.5m | 2.2bn – 3.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±356.7mtypical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.95(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 4.12 | 7.36 | 0.88 | 3.56 – 4.68 |
| 2027 | 4.32 | 9.93 | 0 | 3.25 – 5.38 |
| 2029 | 4.42 | 11.66 | 0 | 2.95 – 5.88 |
| 2034 | 4.49 | 14.74 | 0 | 2.21 – 6.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.87· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.8bn | 12.1bn | 7.4bn | 9.2bn – 10.3bn |
| 2028 | 12.6bn | 16.8bn | 8.5bn | 11.4bn – 13.9bn |
| 2030 | 15.5bn | 20.8bn | 10.2bn | 13.5bn – 17.6bn |
| 2035 | 22.7bn | 30.2bn | 15.2bn | 17.9bn – 27.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3 | 3.97 | 2.03 | 2.81 – 3.2 |
| 2028 | 1.95 | 3.63 | 0.28 | 1.6 – 2.3 |
| 2030 | 0.91 | 3.07 | 0 | 0.49 – 1.32 |
| 2035 | 0 | 3.06 | 0 | 0 – 0.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.85· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1typical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/KGZ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 7.4bn | 2024 (3.49) |
| 2028 | 7.6bn | 2025 (3.53) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -4243373975.5721 + 3347300255.2149·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.786 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 65.13 | 2023 (3.5) |
| 2027 | 65.25 | 2024 (3.49) |
| 2028 | 64.67 | 2025 (3.53) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 122.6856 + -16.4537·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.739 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.92 | 2025 (8.21) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 5.1141 + -0.0239·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.736 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.42 | 2023 (15.2bn) |
| 2027 | 7.3 | 2024 (18.2bn) |
| 2028 | 8.62 | 2025 (22.6bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 1.9149 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.637 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -19.94 | 2025 (39.4) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -33.8683 + 0.3535·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/KGZ?indicator= · API docs
