Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Kiribati: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Kiribati's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.632 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 142.9m | 2023 (11.3) |
Latest observed-16.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -23.88 | 0.32 | -30 | -29.2 – -18.55 |
| 2028 | -30 | 11.91 | -30 | -30 – -20.01 |
| 2030 | -30 | 24.1 | -30 | -30 – -16.56 |
| 2035 | -30 | 30 | -30 | -30 – -9.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-21.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.78typical miss · 1 realized · 48% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.52(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.26 | 12.19 | 0 | 1.93 – 4.58 |
| 2027 | 0.73 | 16.2 | 0 | 0 – 2.99 |
| 2029 | 0 | 19.97 | 0 | 0 – 2.93 |
| 2034 | 0 | 28.24 | 0 | 0 – 4.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.07typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed349.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 369.8m | 430.6m | 317.1m | 356.6m – 383m |
| 2028 | 419.6m | 525m | 328.3m | 387m – 452.3m |
| 2030 | 469.5m | 605.6m | 351.6m | 415.7m – 523.3m |
| 2035 | 594.1m | 786.6m | 427.4m | 470.9m – 717.4m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead426.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±32.2mtypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.22(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.7 | 12 | -3.68 | 3.02 – 6.39 |
| 2028 | 5.69 | 12 | -8.84 | 2.62 – 8.76 |
| 2030 | 6.68 | 12 | -10 | 2.53 – 10.82 |
| 2035 | 9.14 | 12 | -10 | 2.58 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.7typical miss · 1 realized · 57% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7k | 3.2k | 2.3k | 2.6k – 2.8k |
| 2028 | 3k | 3.8k | 2.3k | 2.7k – 3.2k |
| 2030 | 3.3k | 4.3k | 2.4k | 2.9k – 3.7k |
| 2035 | 4.1k | 5.5k | 2.8k | 3.2k – 4.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±373.67typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.5 | 10.1 | 2.36 | 5.85 – 7.16 |
| 2028 | 3.51 | 9.73 | 0 | 2.38 – 4.63 |
| 2030 | 0.52 | 8.55 | 0 | 0 – 1.83 |
| 2035 | 0 | 11.36 | 0 | 0 – 1.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.2typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed97.59(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 100.64 | 127.68 | 73.61 | 94.89 – 106.39 |
| 2027 | 106.74 | 150 | 59.91 | 94.45 – 119.03 |
| 2029 | 112.84 | 150 | 52.39 | 94.56 – 131.12 |
| 2034 | 128.08 | 150 | 42.59 | 94.5 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead99.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.12typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.62 | 17.06 | -0.43 | 6.61 – 10.63 |
| 2028 | 14.29 | 28.92 | -1.38 | 10.37 – 18.22 |
| 2030 | 19.97 | 38.86 | -0.26 | 14.19 – 25.76 |
| 2035 | 34.17 | 50 | 5.56 | 22.78 – 45.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.57· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.12typical miss · 1 realized · 91% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.04(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 30.97 | 39.42 | 23.65 | 29.27 – 32.67 |
| 2027 | 35.92 | 50.55 | 23.24 | 32.11 – 39.74 |
| 2029 | 40.88 | 59.77 | 24.51 | 34.91 – 46.85 |
| 2034 | 53.27 | 70 | 30.11 | 40.93 – 65.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead29.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.44typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed136.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 135.9k | 142.4k | 130k | 131.7k – 140.2k |
| 2028 | 138.1k | 144.6k | 132k | 127.9k – 148.3k |
| 2030 | 140.3k | 146.9k | 134.1k | 124.3k – 156.2k |
| 2035 | 145.7k | 152.6k | 139.3k | 115.5k – 175.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead132.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/KIR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 114m | 2024 (8.9) |
| 2028 | 103.1m | 2025 (8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 6671570.1378 + 12055747.4306·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/KIR?indicator= · API docs
