Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
South Korea: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, South Korea's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.973 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.2T | 2026 (54.4) |
Latest observed5.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.96 | 9.62 | 2.29 | 5.11 – 6.8 |
| 2029 | 6.67 | 13.02 | 0.32 | 5.05 – 8.28 |
| 2031 | 7.38 | 15.58 | -0.82 | 5.12 – 9.64 |
| 2036 | 9.16 | 20.76 | -2.44 | 5.33 – 12.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.95· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.03 | 54.6 | 40.48 | 45.2 – 48.87 |
| 2028 | 49.58 | 62.68 | 38.23 | 45.33 – 53.83 |
| 2030 | 52.12 | 69.03 | 37.47 | 45.54 – 58.71 |
| 2035 | 58.48 | 82.4 | 37.76 | 45.71 – 71.25 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead46.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.48typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.9T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.9T | 2.1T | 1.8T | 1.9T – 2T |
| 2029 | 2T | 2.3T | 1.7T | 1.8T – 2.1T |
| 2031 | 2T | 2.5T | 1.7T | 1.8T – 2.3T |
| 2036 | 2.2T | 2.8T | 1.6T | 1.7T – 2.6T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2T· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.69 | 3.87 | -0.19 | 1.3 – 2.08 |
| 2029 | 1.23 | 5 | -2.03 | 0.54 – 1.92 |
| 2031 | 0.77 | 5.63 | -3.44 | -0.12 – 1.66 |
| 2036 | -0.39 | 6.49 | -6.34 | -1.69 – 0.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.68· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 37.8k | 41.6k | 34.5k | 36.6k – 39k |
| 2029 | 38.7k | 45.3k | 33k | 35.9k – 41.6k |
| 2031 | 39.7k | 48.2k | 32.3k | 35.2k – 44.2k |
| 2036 | 42.1k | 54.1k | 31.7k | 33.3k – 50.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 56.3 | 59.72 | 52.36 | 54.56 – 58.05 |
| 2029 | 60.11 | 66.03 | 53.28 | 55.66 – 64.56 |
| 2031 | 63.92 | 71.56 | 55.09 | 56.66 – 71.17 |
| 2036 | 73.43 | 84.24 | 60.96 | 58.2 – 88.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead56.11· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.86 | 50.64 | 33.08 | 39.85 – 43.88 |
| 2028 | 44.39 | 59.6 | 29.18 | 39.93 – 48.85 |
| 2030 | 46.92 | 66.55 | 27.28 | 40.16 – 53.68 |
| 2035 | 53.23 | 81 | 25.47 | 40.47 – 66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.97typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.71 | 5.69 | -0.48 | 2.01 – 3.41 |
| 2029 | 3.24 | 8.39 | -2.29 | 1.94 – 4.53 |
| 2031 | 3.76 | 10.42 | -3.37 | 1.99 – 5.54 |
| 2036 | 5.08 | 14.5 | -5 | 2.18 – 7.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.74 | 29.66 | 26.07 | 26.88 – 28.6 |
| 2028 | 26.24 | 29.57 | 23.36 | 24.3 – 28.18 |
| 2030 | 24.75 | 29.05 | 21.02 | 21.94 – 27.56 |
| 2035 | 21.01 | 27.09 | 15.74 | 16.65 – 25.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.49typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 51.6m | 54.1m | 49.4m | 50m – 53.2m |
| 2029 | 51.5m | 54m | 49.3m | 47.7m – 55.4m |
| 2031 | 51.5m | 53.9m | 49.2m | 45.6m – 57.3m |
| 2036 | 51.3m | 53.7m | 49m | 40.6m – 61.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead51.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.8(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.03 | 6.04 | -2.73 | 0.39 – 1.67 |
| 2028 | 1.46 | 10.13 | -5.05 | 0.3 – 2.61 |
| 2030 | 1.89 | 13.09 | -6.51 | 0.34 – 3.44 |
| 2035 | 2.97 | 15 | -8.91 | 0.51 – 5.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.01typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed421.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 422.7bn | 464.9bn | 380.5bn | 409.5bn – 436bn |
| 2028 | 424.6bn | 497.7bn | 351.6bn | 393.1bn – 456.2bn |
| 2030 | 426.5bn | 520.9bn | 332.2bn | 378bn – 475.1bn |
| 2035 | 431.3bn | 564.7bn | 297.8bn | 341.8bn – 520.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead422.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.7 | 8.74 | 4.66 | 6.28 – 7.12 |
| 2028 | 6.98 | 10.51 | 3.45 | 6.11 – 7.86 |
| 2030 | 7.12 | 11.68 | 2.56 | 5.85 – 8.39 |
| 2035 | 7.23 | 13.68 | 0.78 | 5.09 – 9.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.58· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed436.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 439.1bn | 482.3bn | 395.8bn | 425.4bn – 452.7bn |
| 2028 | 445.1bn | 520.1bn | 370.2bn | 412.2bn – 478.1bn |
| 2030 | 451.2bn | 547.9bn | 354.5bn | 400bn – 502.5bn |
| 2035 | 466.4bn | 603.2bn | 329.7bn | 369.7bn – 563.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead438.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.68(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.67 | 3.31 | 2.02 | 2.53 – 2.81 |
| 2029 | 2.41 | 3.52 | 1.29 | 2.12 – 2.69 |
| 2031 | 2.14 | 3.58 | 0.7 | 1.75 – 2.53 |
| 2036 | 1.48 | 3.52 | 0 | 0.93 – 2.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.84· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/KOR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 94326300078.8145 + 38183104616.4091·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.971 over 37 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 49.3 | 2025 (1.9T) |
| 2028 | 50.76 | 2026 (1.9T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 2.4174 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.725 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.75 | 2026 (2.5) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 4.1474 + -0.558·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.717 over 65 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.9 | 2025 (1.9T) |
| 2028 | 0.62 | 2026 (1.9T) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 9.7144 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.596 over 66 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.96 | 2026 (1.9T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 11.3062 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/KOR?indicator= · API docs
