Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Kuwait: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Kuwait's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.873 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.5 | 2024 (160.9bn) |
Latest observed18.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.43 | 30 | 6.79 | 21.22 – 29.65 |
| 2028 | 30 | 30 | -2.3 | 21.97 – 30 |
| 2030 | 30 | 30 | -11.7 | 19.09 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -28.97 | 13.17 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.13typical miss · 1 realized · 39% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.76(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56.55 | 69.91 | 44.98 | 53.74 – 59.37 |
| 2027 | 58.15 | 81.29 | 38.1 | 52.05 – 64.25 |
| 2029 | 59.75 | 89.62 | 33.86 | 50.7 – 68.79 |
| 2034 | 63.74 | 105.98 | 27.13 | 47.51 – 79.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.07typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed157.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 153.9bn | 203bn | 111.3bn | 145.5bn – 162.2bn |
| 2028 | 147.9bn | 233bn | 74.2bn | 130.7bn – 165.2bn |
| 2030 | 142bn | 251.9bn | 46.8bn | 117.6bn – 166.4bn |
| 2035 | 127.2bn | 282.5bn | 0 | 88.3bn – 166bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead145.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.9bntypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.18 | 12 | -5.62 | 2.23 – 6.13 |
| 2028 | 7.32 | 12 | -9.65 | 3.71 – 10.94 |
| 2030 | 10.47 | 12 | -10 | 5.42 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.12 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-10· skill-weighted across models
Track record±20.88typical miss · 1 realized · 125% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.1k | 42.1k | 21.6k | 29.3k – 32.9k |
| 2028 | 28.7k | 47.7k | 12.2k | 25.1k – 32.4k |
| 2030 | 26.3k | 50.9k | 5k | 21.3k – 31.3k |
| 2035 | 20.3k | 55k | 0 | 12.9k – 27.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.65 | 24.12 | 1.57 | 11.82 – 15.48 |
| 2028 | 11.76 | 29.9 | 0 | 8.41 – 15.12 |
| 2030 | 9.87 | 33.28 | 0 | 5.48 – 14.26 |
| 2035 | 5.14 | 38.25 | 0 | 0 – 11.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±12.95typical miss · 1 realized · 49% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed38.23(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 36.69 | 45.86 | 27.51 | 34.69 – 38.68 |
| 2027 | 33.59 | 49.49 | 17.69 | 29.54 – 37.63 |
| 2029 | 30.49 | 51.01 | 9.97 | 24.91 – 36.07 |
| 2034 | 22.75 | 51.77 | 0 | 14.67 – 30.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.25typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.22 | 3.79 | 0.53 | 1.83 – 2.6 |
| 2028 | 1.46 | 4.19 | -1.45 | 0.79 – 2.14 |
| 2030 | 0.71 | 4.23 | -3.05 | -0.15 – 1.57 |
| 2035 | -1.16 | 3.81 | -5 | -2.45 – 0.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.96· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.02typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.75(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 16.59 | 20.74 | 12.99 | 15.73 – 17.44 |
| 2027 | 15.8 | 23 | 9.57 | 14.02 – 17.59 |
| 2029 | 15.02 | 24.31 | 6.97 | 12.49 – 17.55 |
| 2034 | 13.07 | 26.2 | 1.69 | 9.1 – 17.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.06typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.8m | 5m | 4.6m | 4.7m – 5m |
| 2028 | 4.8m | 5.1m | 4.4m | 4.4m – 5.1m |
| 2030 | 4.7m | 5.2m | 4.3m | 4.2m – 5.3m |
| 2035 | 4.7m | 5.3m | 4m | 3.7m – 5.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.2m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±258ktypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.75 | 14.2 | -2.33 | 3.49 – 6.01 |
| 2028 | 8.1 | 15 | -4.18 | 5.66 – 10.53 |
| 2030 | 11.44 | 15 | -4.4 | 7.89 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -7.4 | 8.87 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.57typical miss · 1 realized · 222% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.6bn | 47.6bn | 31.6bn | 37.7bn – 41.4bn |
| 2028 | 37bn | 50.9bn | 23.2bn | 33.1bn – 40.9bn |
| 2030 | 34.5bn | 52.4bn | 16.6bn | 29bn – 40bn |
| 2035 | 28.1bn | 53.5bn | 2.8bn | 19.8bn – 36.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.64 | 12.57 | 4.7 | 7.89 – 9.38 |
| 2028 | 8.91 | 15.73 | 2.09 | 7.44 – 10.38 |
| 2030 | 9.04 | 17.85 | 0.24 | 6.97 – 11.12 |
| 2035 | 9.15 | 21.61 | 0 | 5.78 – 12.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.25· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 51.9bn | 59.4bn | 44.4bn | 49.9bn – 53.9bn |
| 2028 | 52.5bn | 65.6bn | 39.5bn | 48bn – 57.1bn |
| 2030 | 53.2bn | 70bn | 36.4bn | 46.3bn – 60bn |
| 2035 | 54.7bn | 78.5bn | 31bn | 42.3bn – 67.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.18(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.92 | 2.62 | 1.22 | 1.78 – 2.06 |
| 2028 | 1.41 | 2.62 | 0.19 | 1.15 – 1.66 |
| 2030 | 0.89 | 2.45 | 0 | 0.57 – 1.21 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.21 | 0 | 0 – 0.5 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.22· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/KWT · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 2.46 | 2025 (157.2bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.6373 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.866 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100bn | 2025 (14.6) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 161944374493.0697 + -4245047081.4475·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.838 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.29 | 2025 (157.2bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 30.1436 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.743 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.82 | 2025 (22.7) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 9.4307 + -0.2913·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.51 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8 | 2025 (14.6) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 4.1047 + -0.0894·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/KWT?indicator= · API docs
