Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Laos: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2017, 2019, 2021, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Laos's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.87 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 91.28 | 2024 (4.13) |
Latest observed5.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.47 | 22.54 | 6.4 | 12.6 – 16.35 |
| 2028 | 19.42 | 30 | 5.44 | 15.64 – 23.21 |
| 2030 | 24.37 | 30 | 6.33 | 18.74 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | 4.48 | 19.99 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.77· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.37typical miss · 1 realized · 184% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33.21(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 33.4 | 41.76 | 26.16 | 31.67 – 35.13 |
| 2019 | 33.79 | 48.27 | 21.24 | 30.1 – 37.48 |
| 2021 | 34.18 | 52.87 | 17.97 | 28.77 – 39.58 |
| 2026 | 35.14 | 61.58 | 12.23 | 25.74 – 44.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.25· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.7bn | 21.8bn | 16bn | 18bn – 19.4bn |
| 2028 | 19.6bn | 25bn | 14.9bn | 18bn – 21.2bn |
| 2030 | 20.5bn | 27.5bn | 14.4bn | 18bn – 22.9bn |
| 2035 | 22.7bn | 32.6bn | 14.1bn | 17.9bn – 27.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±313.9mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.98 | 6.39 | 3.75 | 4.66 – 5.29 |
| 2028 | 6.04 | 8.49 | 3.91 | 5.34 – 6.73 |
| 2030 | 7.09 | 10.26 | 4.35 | 6 – 8.19 |
| 2035 | 9.73 | 12 | 5.85 | 7.43 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.48typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.3k | 2.8k | 2k | 2.3k – 2.4k |
| 2028 | 2.4k | 3.1k | 1.8k | 2.2k – 2.6k |
| 2030 | 2.4k | 3.4k | 1.6k | 2.1k – 2.7k |
| 2035 | 2.5k | 3.9k | 1.4k | 2k – 3.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.3k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±17.73typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed79.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.86 | 114.82 | 71.83 | 90.27 – 99.45 |
| 2028 | 106.99 | 141.56 | 67.1 | 96.53 – 117.44 |
| 2030 | 119.11 | 163.74 | 67.61 | 102.72 – 135.51 |
| 2035 | 149.42 | 212.54 | 76.59 | 115.81 – 183.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead77.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±15.06typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.88(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 41.86 | 53.12 | 30.61 | 39.47 – 44.26 |
| 2019 | 41.82 | 61.32 | 22.33 | 36.83 – 46.81 |
| 2021 | 41.78 | 66.95 | 16.61 | 34.59 – 48.98 |
| 2026 | 41.68 | 77.28 | 6.09 | 29.57 – 53.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.17· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.74(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.94 | 26.64 | -5 | -3.57 – 7.45 |
| 2028 | -5 | 37.77 | -5 | -5 – 4.72 |
| 2030 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 7.64 |
| 2035 | -5 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 13.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.26typical miss · 1 realized · 79% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed29.01(2016)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 28.87 | 35.62 | 23.02 | 27.44 – 30.29 |
| 2019 | 28.41 | 40.09 | 18.28 | 25.37 – 31.44 |
| 2021 | 27.94 | 43.03 | 14.87 | 23.55 – 32.33 |
| 2026 | 26.79 | 48.12 | 8.3 | 19.45 – 34.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.78· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.8m | 8.2m | 7.5m | 7.6m – 8.1m |
| 2028 | 8m | 8.3m | 7.6m | 7.4m – 8.5m |
| 2030 | 8.1m | 8.5m | 7.7m | 7.2m – 9m |
| 2035 | 8.4m | 8.8m | 8m | 6.6m – 10.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±44.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.44 | 8.44 | -0.32 | 2.76 – 4.12 |
| 2028 | 5.64 | 14.3 | -0.86 | 4.28 – 6.99 |
| 2030 | 7.84 | 15 | -0.55 | 5.81 – 9.86 |
| 2035 | 13.34 | 15 | 1.48 | 9.23 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.97· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.56typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.1bn | 5.2bn | 3bn | 3.9bn – 4.4bn |
| 2028 | 5.2bn | 7.1bn | 3.3bn | 4.6bn – 5.7bn |
| 2030 | 6.2bn | 8.7bn | 3.8bn | 5.4bn – 7.1bn |
| 2035 | 8.9bn | 12.4bn | 5.4bn | 6.9bn – 10.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.07 | 4.57 | 1.58 | 2.79 – 3.35 |
| 2028 | 2.65 | 5.24 | 0.06 | 2.13 – 3.17 |
| 2030 | 2.44 | 5.79 | 0 | 1.74 – 3.15 |
| 2035 | 2.28 | 7 | 0 | 1.19 – 3.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.12typical miss · 1 realized · 33% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.1bn | 5.2bn | 3bn | 3.9bn – 4.4bn |
| 2028 | 5.2bn | 7.1bn | 3.3bn | 4.6bn – 5.7bn |
| 2030 | 6.2bn | 8.7bn | 3.8bn | 5.4bn – 7.1bn |
| 2035 | 8.9bn | 12.3bn | 5.4bn | 6.9bn – 10.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.19(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.94 | 1.6 | 0.29 | 0.83 – 1.06 |
| 2028 | 0.45 | 1.59 | 0 | 0.23 – 0.68 |
| 2030 | 0 | 1.47 | 0 | 0 – 0.3 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.08 | 0 | 0 – 0.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.07· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LAO · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 87.5 | 2025 (4.54) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 129.6331 + -9.286·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.805 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 13.49 | 2025 (88.8) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ -12.0733 + 0.2879·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.639 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.59 | 2023 (1.19) |
| 2027 | 7.61 | 2024 (1.17) |
| 2028 | 7.58 | 2025 (1.19) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 9.7155 + -1.7957·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.583 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.4 | 2025 (88.8) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -22.4026 + 0.2027·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LAO?indicator= · API docs
