Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Liberia: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Liberia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.843 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.7bn | 2024 (56.4) |
Latest observed-12(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -10.2 | 3.38 | -23.78 | -13.14 – -7.27 |
| 2029 | -6.61 | 16.91 | -30 | -11.72 – -1.49 |
| 2031 | -3.01 | 27.35 | -30 | -9.45 – 3.43 |
| 2036 | 5.98 | 30 | -30 | -3.74 – 15.69 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-13.88· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6bn | 6.4bn | 5.6bn | 5.8bn – 6.1bn |
| 2029 | 6.8bn | 7.5bn | 6.1bn | 6.3bn – 7.3bn |
| 2031 | 7.6bn | 8.5bn | 6.7bn | 6.7bn – 8.4bn |
| 2036 | 9.6bn | 10.9bn | 8.4bn | 7.6bn – 11.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.42 | 6.56 | 4.43 | 5.14 – 5.7 |
| 2029 | 6.1 | 8.08 | 4.39 | 5.48 – 6.72 |
| 2031 | 6.78 | 9.34 | 4.57 | 5.81 – 7.75 |
| 2036 | 8.48 | 12 | 5.35 | 6.52 – 10.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.18· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed915.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1k | 1.1k | 940.23 | 974.31 – 1k |
| 2029 | 1.1k | 1.2k | 999.48 | 1k – 1.2k |
| 2031 | 1.2k | 1.4k | 1.1k | 1.1k – 1.4k |
| 2036 | 1.5k | 1.7k | 1.3k | 1.2k – 1.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed53.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 56.03 | 65.68 | 44.89 | 53.65 – 58.41 |
| 2029 | 60.48 | 77.2 | 41.19 | 55.01 – 65.95 |
| 2031 | 64.93 | 86.51 | 40.03 | 56.42 – 73.45 |
| 2036 | 76.07 | 106.59 | 40.85 | 59.2 – 92.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.68 | 8.28 | 0.81 | 3.8 – 5.55 |
| 2029 | 1.01 | 7.26 | -5 | -0.42 – 2.45 |
| 2031 | -2.65 | 5.42 | -5 | -4.65 – -0.65 |
| 2036 | -5 | 6.41 | -5 | -5 – -1.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.08· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.8m | 6.1m | 5.6m | 5.6m – 6m |
| 2029 | 6m | 6.2m | 5.7m | 5.5m – 6.4m |
| 2031 | 6.1m | 6.4m | 5.8m | 5.4m – 6.8m |
| 2036 | 6.4m | 6.7m | 6.1m | 5.1m – 7.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.67 | 7.05 | -0.61 | 2.08 – 3.26 |
| 2028 | 4.14 | 11.73 | -1.54 | 3 – 5.29 |
| 2030 | 5.61 | 15 | -1.73 | 3.94 – 7.29 |
| 2035 | 9.29 | 15 | -1.1 | 6.07 – 12.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.77typical miss · 1 realized · 37% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed338.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 295.6m | 604.8m | 0 | 243.5m – 347.6m |
| 2028 | 198.5m | 734.1m | 0 | 107.1m – 290m |
| 2030 | 101.5m | 792.9m | 0 | 0 – 215.5m |
| 2035 | 0 | 977.7m | 0 | 0 – 149.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead350.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.02(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.4 | 4.39 | 0.41 | 2.06 – 2.75 |
| 2027 | 2.86 | 6.31 | 0 | 2.2 – 3.53 |
| 2029 | 3.09 | 7.54 | 0 | 2.16 – 4.02 |
| 2034 | 3.27 | 9.56 | 0 | 1.78 – 4.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.81· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed338.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 295.6m | 604.8m | 0 | 243.5m – 347.6m |
| 2028 | 198.5m | 734.1m | 0 | 107.1m – 290m |
| 2030 | 101.5m | 792.9m | 0 | 0 – 215.5m |
| 2035 | 0 | 977.7m | 0 | 0 – 149.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead350.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.63 | 3.29 | 1.97 | 2.49 – 2.77 |
| 2028 | 2.12 | 3.26 | 0.98 | 1.84 – 2.39 |
| 2030 | 1.61 | 3.08 | 0.14 | 1.25 – 1.96 |
| 2035 | 0.33 | 2.41 | 0 | 0 – 0.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LBR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 3.7bn | 2025 (54.9) |
| 2029 | 3.7bn | 2026 (53.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 3968847441.8029 + -5419188.8766·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.803 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -197.69 | 2026 (5.6bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 479.6252 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.693 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.3 | 2023 (4.4bn) |
| 2027 | 3.4 | 2024 (4.8bn) |
| 2028 | 3.53 | 2025 (5.2bn) |
| 2029 | 3.63 | 2026 (5.6bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.1385 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LBR?indicator= · API docs
