Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Liberia: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Liberia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.874 over 23 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.5bn | 2023 (57.2) |
Latest observed-19.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.1 | 7.39 | -17.6 | -7.74 – -2.47 |
| 2028 | -1.31 | 20.34 | -22.96 | -5.79 – 3.17 |
| 2030 | 2.48 | 30 | -25.46 | -3.42 – 8.38 |
| 2035 | 11.96 | 30 | -27.56 | 1.98 – 21.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-22.35· skill-weighted across models
Track record±14.8typical miss · 1 realized · 74% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.5bn | 6.1bn | 5.1bn | 5.4bn – 5.7bn |
| 2028 | 6.3bn | 7.2bn | 5.5bn | 5.8bn – 6.7bn |
| 2030 | 7bn | 8.1bn | 6bn | 6.2bn – 7.8bn |
| 2035 | 8.8bn | 10.4bn | 7.4bn | 7bn – 10.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±182.3mtypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.43 | 12 | -0.45 | 4.21 – 6.65 |
| 2028 | 6.44 | 12 | -3.74 | 4.17 – 8.71 |
| 2030 | 7.45 | 12 | -5.7 | 4.32 – 10.57 |
| 2035 | 9.97 | 12 | -8.62 | 4.8 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.07typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed915.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 952.99 | 1k | 871.47 | 923.44 – 982.53 |
| 2028 | 1k | 1.2k | 908.8 | 972.31 – 1.1k |
| 2030 | 1.1k | 1.4k | 964.71 | 1k – 1.3k |
| 2035 | 1.4k | 1.7k | 1.1k | 1.1k – 1.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±23.28typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58.34 | 67.7 | 47.54 | 55.97 – 60.72 |
| 2028 | 64.83 | 81.04 | 46.12 | 59.22 – 70.43 |
| 2030 | 71.31 | 92.24 | 47.17 | 62.39 – 80.24 |
| 2035 | 87.52 | 117.12 | 53.38 | 68.97 – 106.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.34· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.34typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.48 | 16.52 | -0.13 | 6.56 – 10.4 |
| 2028 | 8.62 | 22.55 | -5 | 5.12 – 12.12 |
| 2030 | 8.76 | 26.74 | -5 | 4.08 – 13.45 |
| 2035 | 9.12 | 34.55 | -5 | 2.02 – 16.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.33· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.58typical miss · 1 realized · 44% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7m | 6m | 5.4m | 5.5m – 5.9m |
| 2028 | 5.8m | 6.1m | 5.6m | 5.4m – 6.3m |
| 2030 | 6m | 6.2m | 5.7m | 5.3m – 6.6m |
| 2035 | 6.3m | 6.6m | 6m | 5m – 7.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±154.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.67 | 7.05 | -0.61 | 2.08 – 3.26 |
| 2028 | 4.14 | 11.73 | -1.54 | 3 – 5.29 |
| 2030 | 5.61 | 15 | -1.73 | 3.94 – 7.29 |
| 2035 | 9.29 | 15 | -1.1 | 6.07 – 12.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.77typical miss · 1 realized · 37% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed338.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 295.6m | 604.8m | 0 | 243.5m – 347.6m |
| 2028 | 198.5m | 734.1m | 0 | 107.1m – 290m |
| 2030 | 101.5m | 792.9m | 0 | 0 – 215.5m |
| 2035 | 0 | 977.7m | 0 | 0 – 149.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead350.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.02(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.4 | 4.39 | 0.41 | 2.06 – 2.75 |
| 2027 | 2.86 | 6.31 | 0 | 2.2 – 3.53 |
| 2029 | 3.09 | 7.54 | 0 | 2.16 – 4.02 |
| 2034 | 3.27 | 9.56 | 0 | 1.78 – 4.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.81· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed338.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 295.6m | 604.8m | 0 | 243.5m – 347.6m |
| 2028 | 198.5m | 734.1m | 0 | 107.1m – 290m |
| 2030 | 101.5m | 792.9m | 0 | 0 – 215.5m |
| 2035 | 0 | 977.7m | 0 | 0 – 149.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead350.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.88(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.63 | 3.29 | 1.97 | 2.49 – 2.77 |
| 2028 | 2.12 | 3.26 | 0.98 | 1.84 – 2.39 |
| 2030 | 1.61 | 3.08 | 0.14 | 1.25 – 1.96 |
| 2035 | 0.33 | 2.41 | 0 | 0 – 0.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LBR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 3.5bn | 2024 (56.4) |
| 2028 | 3.5bn | 2025 (55.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 3825720224.0953 + -5138469.9514·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.829 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -198.37 | 2025 (5.2bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 505.3838 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.693 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.3 | 2023 (4.4bn) |
| 2027 | 3.4 | 2024 (4.8bn) |
| 2028 | 3.53 | 2025 (5.2bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 2.1385 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.503 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -17.27 | 2024 (56.4) |
| 2027 | -17.3 | 2025 (55.1) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -18.595 + 0.0236·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LBR?indicator= · API docs
