Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
St. Lucia: forward projections across 9 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Latest observed
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.09 | 14.23 | -22.4 | -7.89 – -0.28 |
| 2029 | -3.06 | 28.66 | -30 | -9.68 – 3.56 |
| 2031 | -2.03 | 30 | -30 | -10.55 – 6.49 |
| 2036 | 0.54 | 30 | -30 | -11.44 – 12.52 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.9bn | 3.5bn | 2.3bn | 2.7bn – 3bn |
| 2029 | 3.1bn | 4.3bn | 2.1bn | 2.8bn – 3.4bn |
| 2031 | 3.4bn | 4.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.9bn – 3.8bn |
| 2036 | 4bn | 6.1bn | 2.2bn | 3.1bn – 4.9bn |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.89(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.59 | 12 | -10 | -2.55 – 3.72 |
| 2029 | -2.81 | 12 | -10 | -8.35 – 2.73 |
| 2031 | -6.21 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.26 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.46 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.2k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.6k | 19.3k | 12.4k | 14.9k – 16.3k |
| 2029 | 16.9k | 23.3k | 11.3k | 15.3k – 18.4k |
| 2031 | 18.1k | 26.5k | 10.9k | 15.7k – 20.6k |
| 2036 | 21.3k | 33.1k | 11k | 16.5k – 26.1k |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 79.22 | 100.55 | 54.6 | 74.67 – 83.77 |
| 2029 | 82.65 | 119.61 | 40.01 | 73 – 92.31 |
| 2031 | 86.09 | 133.79 | 31.04 | 71.86 – 100.31 |
| 2036 | 94.68 | 162.14 | 16.83 | 69.15 – 120.2 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.11(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.63 | 8.6 | -3.76 | 1.27 – 4 |
| 2029 | 3.33 | 13.67 | -5 | 0.88 – 5.78 |
| 2031 | 4.03 | 17.38 | -5 | 0.75 – 7.31 |
| 2036 | 5.78 | 24.66 | -5 | 0.67 – 10.89 |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed179.7k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 182.6k | 191.2k | 174.6k | 176.9k – 188.2k |
| 2029 | 183.7k | 192.3k | 175.6k | 170.1k – 197.3k |
| 2031 | 184.8k | 193.5k | 176.7k | 163.8k – 205.7k |
| 2036 | 187.5k | 196.4k | 179.3k | 148.6k – 226.4k |
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.52(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.56 | 15 | -10 | -0.6 – 7.71 |
| 2027 | 7.86 | 15 | -10 | 0.39 – 15 |
| 2029 | 12.17 | 15 | -10 | 2.04 – 15 |
| 2034 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -0.35 – 15 |
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.21 | 9.28 | 3.13 | 5.64 – 6.77 |
| 2028 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 – 0.86 |
| 2030 | 0 | 6.88 | 0 | 0 – 1.13 |
| 2035 | 0 | 9.72 | 0 | 0 – 1.65 |
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-06-22 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LCA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
