Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
St. Lucia: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, St. Lucia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.951 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.3bn | 2023 (74) |
Latest observed-5.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -5.36 | 13.11 | -23.83 | -9.22 – -1.51 |
| 2028 | -5.69 | 26.3 | -30 | -12.49 – 1.11 |
| 2030 | -6.02 | 30 | -30 | -14.93 – 2.89 |
| 2035 | -6.83 | 30 | -30 | -19.84 – 6.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.44typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.7bn | 3.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.6bn – 2.9bn |
| 2028 | 3bn | 4.1bn | 2bn | 2.7bn – 3.3bn |
| 2030 | 3.2bn | 4.6bn | 2bn | 2.8bn – 3.6bn |
| 2035 | 3.8bn | 5.8bn | 2.1bn | 3bn – 4.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.4mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.94 | 12 | -10 | -6.81 – 4.92 |
| 2028 | -2.05 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 8.17 |
| 2030 | -3.16 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 10.17 |
| 2035 | -5.92 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.15typical miss · 1 realized · 179% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.2k | 18.8k | 12.1k | 14.5k – 15.9k |
| 2028 | 16.5k | 22.7k | 11.1k | 14.9k – 18k |
| 2030 | 17.7k | 25.7k | 10.8k | 15.3k – 20.1k |
| 2035 | 20.8k | 32.1k | 11k | 16.2k – 25.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±123.52typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 78.94 | 100.31 | 54.28 | 74.39 – 83.49 |
| 2028 | 83.21 | 120.23 | 40.51 | 73.53 – 92.9 |
| 2030 | 87.49 | 135.28 | 32.35 | 73.14 – 101.84 |
| 2035 | 98.18 | 165.76 | 20.21 | 72.08 – 124.29 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead79.14· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.84typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6 | 13.89 | -5 | 1.26 – 5.94 |
| 2028 | 7.38 | 25.2 | -5 | 3.08 – 11.69 |
| 2030 | 11.16 | 34.17 | -5 | 5.17 – 17.16 |
| 2035 | 20.62 | 50 | -5 | 10.11 – 31.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.87· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.7typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed180.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 180k | 188.5k | 172.1k | 174.4k – 185.6k |
| 2028 | 180.5k | 189k | 172.6k | 167.1k – 193.8k |
| 2030 | 180.9k | 189.5k | 173k | 160.4k – 201.5k |
| 2035 | 182k | 190.6k | 174k | 144.3k – 219.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead183.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.03 | 15 | -10 | -7.33 – 1.26 |
| 2028 | -5.3 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 2.31 |
| 2030 | -7.57 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 2.54 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 5.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.57typical miss · 1 realized · 277% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed447.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 462.6m | 617.5m | 307.8m | 431.5m – 493.7m |
| 2028 | 504.1m | 772.3m | 235.9m | 438.9m – 569.4m |
| 2030 | 545.6m | 891.8m | 199.4m | 449m – 642.2m |
| 2035 | 649.3m | 1.1bn | 159.7m | 470.5m – 828.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead474m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.1 | 5.07 | 1.12 | 2.74 – 3.45 |
| 2028 | 3.22 | 6.65 | 0 | 2.54 – 3.9 |
| 2030 | 3.29 | 7.71 | 0 | 2.35 – 4.22 |
| 2035 | 3.34 | 9.59 | 0 | 1.84 – 4.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.93· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed447.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 462.6m | 617.5m | 307.8m | 431.5m – 493.7m |
| 2028 | 504.1m | 772.3m | 235.9m | 438.9m – 569.4m |
| 2030 | 545.6m | 891.8m | 199.4m | 449m – 642.2m |
| 2035 | 649.3m | 1.1bn | 159.7m | 470.5m – 828.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead474m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.21 | 9.28 | 3.13 | 5.64 – 6.77 |
| 2028 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 – 0.86 |
| 2030 | 0 | 6.88 | 0 | 0 – 1.13 |
| 2035 | 0 | 9.72 | 0 | 0 – 1.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.39· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LCA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 2.3bn | 2024 (75.9) |
| 2028 | 2.3bn | 2025 (76.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 125506557.646 + 28717112.6734·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.938 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 91.95 | 2023 (2.4bn) |
| 2027 | 97.69 | 2024 (2.6bn) |
| 2028 | 99.49 | 2025 (2.7bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 6.4379 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LCA?indicator= · API docs
