Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
St. Lucia: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, St. Lucia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.949 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4bn | 2024 (76.7) |
Latest observed-4.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -4.09 | 14.23 | -22.4 | -7.89 – -0.28 |
| 2029 | -3.06 | 28.66 | -30 | -9.68 – 3.56 |
| 2031 | -2.03 | 30 | -30 | -10.55 – 6.49 |
| 2036 | 0.54 | 30 | -30 | -11.44 – 12.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-4.34· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.9bn | 3.5bn | 2.3bn | 2.7bn – 3bn |
| 2029 | 3.1bn | 4.2bn | 2.2bn | 2.8bn – 3.4bn |
| 2031 | 3.3bn | 4.8bn | 2.1bn | 2.9bn – 3.8bn |
| 2036 | 4bn | 6bn | 2.2bn | 3.1bn – 4.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.28 | 12 | -10 | -2.56 – 3.11 |
| 2029 | -3.71 | 12 | -10 | -8.78 – 1.35 |
| 2031 | -7.7 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -0.78 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 0.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.28· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.6k | 19.2k | 12.5k | 14.9k – 16.3k |
| 2029 | 16.8k | 23k | 11.5k | 15.3k – 18.4k |
| 2031 | 18.1k | 26k | 11.1k | 15.7k – 20.5k |
| 2036 | 21.1k | 32.4k | 11.4k | 16.4k – 25.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead15.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed77.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 79.22 | 100.55 | 54.6 | 74.67 – 83.77 |
| 2029 | 82.65 | 119.61 | 40.01 | 73 – 92.31 |
| 2031 | 86.09 | 133.79 | 31.04 | 71.86 – 100.31 |
| 2036 | 94.68 | 162.14 | 16.83 | 69.15 – 120.2 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead78.57· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.6 | 12.3 | -5 | 0.4 – 4.79 |
| 2029 | 3.26 | 20.06 | -5 | -0.62 – 7.14 |
| 2031 | 3.92 | 25.61 | -5 | -1.2 – 9.04 |
| 2036 | 5.58 | 36.25 | -5 | -2.12 – 13.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.37· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed180.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 183.1k | 191.8k | 175.1k | 177.5k – 188.8k |
| 2029 | 186.3k | 195.1k | 178.1k | 172.5k – 200k |
| 2031 | 189.4k | 198.4k | 181.1k | 167.9k – 210.9k |
| 2036 | 197.2k | 206.6k | 188.6k | 156.3k – 238.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead183.5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.03 | 15 | -10 | -7.33 – 1.26 |
| 2028 | -5.3 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 2.31 |
| 2030 | -7.57 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 2.54 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 5.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.57typical miss · 1 realized · 277% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed447.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 462.6m | 617.5m | 307.8m | 431.5m – 493.7m |
| 2028 | 504.1m | 772.3m | 235.9m | 438.9m – 569.4m |
| 2030 | 545.6m | 891.8m | 199.4m | 449m – 642.2m |
| 2035 | 649.3m | 1.1bn | 159.7m | 470.5m – 828.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead474m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.99(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.1 | 5.07 | 1.12 | 2.74 – 3.45 |
| 2028 | 3.22 | 6.65 | 0 | 2.54 – 3.9 |
| 2030 | 3.29 | 7.71 | 0 | 2.35 – 4.22 |
| 2035 | 3.34 | 9.59 | 0 | 1.84 – 4.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.93· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed447.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 462.6m | 617.5m | 307.8m | 431.5m – 493.7m |
| 2028 | 504.1m | 772.3m | 235.9m | 438.9m – 569.4m |
| 2030 | 545.6m | 891.8m | 199.4m | 449m – 642.2m |
| 2035 | 649.3m | 1.1bn | 159.7m | 470.5m – 828.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead474m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.21 | 9.28 | 3.13 | 5.64 – 6.77 |
| 2028 | 0 | 5.33 | 0 | 0 – 0.86 |
| 2030 | 0 | 6.88 | 0 | 0 – 1.13 |
| 2035 | 0 | 9.72 | 0 | 0 – 1.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.39· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LCA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 2.4bn | 2025 (77.1) |
| 2029 | 2.4bn | 2026 (77.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 89222482.5529 + 29781542.2172·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.934 over 37 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 95.47 | 2024 (2.6bn) |
| 2028 | 97.19 | 2025 (2.7bn) |
| 2029 | 100.84 | 2026 (2.8bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 7.8445 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LCA?indicator= · API docs
