Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Latin America & Caribbean: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Latin America & Caribbean's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.606 over 59 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.52 | 2024 (7.1T) |
Latest observed26.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.36 | 29.33 | 23.78 | 25.51 – 27.21 |
| 2028 | 26.79 | 31.94 | 22.33 | 24.77 – 28.81 |
| 2030 | 27.22 | 33.86 | 21.46 | 24.09 – 30.34 |
| 2035 | 28.29 | 37.69 | 20.14 | 22.42 – 34.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.03typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.4T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.7T | 8.8T | 6.7T | 7.4T – 7.9T |
| 2028 | 8.4T | 10.4T | 6.7T | 7.8T – 9.1T |
| 2030 | 9.2T | 11.8T | 6.9T | 8.1T – 10.2T |
| 2035 | 11T | 14.7T | 7.9T | 8.7T – 13.3T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.7T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±88bntypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.32(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.65 | 12 | -8.56 | 0.45 – 4.85 |
| 2028 | 3.36 | 12 | -10 | -0.53 – 7.26 |
| 2030 | 4.08 | 12 | -10 | -1.07 – 9.23 |
| 2035 | 5.86 | 12 | -10 | -1.9 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.31typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.5k | 13.3k | 9.9k | 11.1k – 11.9k |
| 2028 | 12.5k | 15.6k | 9.8k | 11.5k – 13.4k |
| 2030 | 13.5k | 17.5k | 10k | 11.9k – 15k |
| 2035 | 15.9k | 21.6k | 11k | 12.6k – 19.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±146.81typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.43(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.65 | 31.19 | 22.1 | 25.52 – 27.77 |
| 2028 | 27.08 | 34.95 | 19.21 | 24.57 – 29.58 |
| 2030 | 27.51 | 37.67 | 17.35 | 23.75 – 31.26 |
| 2035 | 28.59 | 42.96 | 14.21 | 21.81 – 35.36 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.02typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2 | 7.59 | -3.98 | 0.73 – 3.27 |
| 2028 | 0.38 | 10.06 | -5 | -1.81 – 2.58 |
| 2030 | -1.24 | 11.26 | -5 | -4.11 – 1.63 |
| 2035 | -5 | 12.67 | -5 | -5 – -0.28 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.04· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed18.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.54 | 20.04 | 17.25 | 17.97 – 19.12 |
| 2028 | 18.31 | 20.9 | 16.07 | 16.96 – 19.67 |
| 2030 | 18.08 | 21.42 | 15.19 | 16.03 – 20.13 |
| 2035 | 17.5 | 22.22 | 13.41 | 13.87 – 21.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.49typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed666.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 665.4m | 696.8m | 636.2m | 644.8m – 686m |
| 2028 | 670.2m | 701.9m | 640.8m | 620.7m – 719.8m |
| 2030 | 675.1m | 707m | 645.5m | 598.4m – 751.7m |
| 2035 | 687.2m | 719.7m | 657.1m | 544.7m – 829.8m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead670.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.5mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.05 | 3.48 | -0.77 | 0.73 – 1.37 |
| 2028 | 1.69 | 5.88 | -1.46 | 1.08 – 2.29 |
| 2030 | 2.32 | 7.74 | -1.74 | 1.46 – 3.18 |
| 2035 | 3.91 | 11.57 | -1.84 | 2.32 – 5.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.91· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.27typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.54(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.1 | 9.84 | 4.35 | 6.57 – 7.63 |
| 2028 | 7.77 | 12.52 | 3.01 | 6.67 – 8.87 |
| 2030 | 8.09 | 14.23 | 1.96 | 6.51 – 9.68 |
| 2035 | 8.35 | 17.03 | 0 | 5.69 – 11.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.23· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.46(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.48 | 5.82 | 3.14 | 4.2 – 4.75 |
| 2028 | 2.52 | 4.84 | 0.19 | 2.04 – 2.99 |
| 2030 | 0.55 | 3.55 | 0 | 0.01 – 1.09 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.24 | 0 | 0 – 0.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.89· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LCN · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 0.06 | 2025 (7.4T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 11.0958 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.557 over 58 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.9T | 2025 (2.31) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 4502063688020.911 + -239299853733.8651·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LCN?indicator= · API docs
