Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Least developed countries: UN classification: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Least developed countries: UN classification's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.76 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 588.1bn | 2023 (4.7) |
Latest observed21.66(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.87 | 25.31 | 18.89 | 21.03 – 22.71 |
| 2028 | 22.29 | 28.24 | 17.13 | 20.37 – 24.21 |
| 2030 | 22.71 | 30.39 | 16.04 | 19.79 – 25.62 |
| 2035 | 23.75 | 34.63 | 14.33 | 18.4 – 29.11 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.93· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.39typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.7T | 1.8T | 1.6T | 1.7T – 1.8T |
| 2028 | 1.8T | 2.1T | 1.7T | 1.7T – 2T |
| 2030 | 2T | 2.3T | 1.7T | 1.8T – 2.2T |
| 2035 | 2.3T | 2.7T | 2T | 1.8T – 2.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.7T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±62bntypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.88 | 8.14 | 2.05 | 4.26 – 5.5 |
| 2028 | 6.18 | 11.83 | 1.28 | 4.94 – 7.42 |
| 2030 | 7.47 | 12 | 1.15 | 5.66 – 9.29 |
| 2035 | 10.72 | 12 | 1.77 | 7.28 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.69typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.4k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4k | 1.5k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.4k |
| 2028 | 1.4k | 1.6k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.6k |
| 2030 | 1.5k | 1.8k | 1.3k | 1.3k – 1.7k |
| 2035 | 1.7k | 2k | 1.4k | 1.3k – 2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±41.66typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.48 | 32.12 | 24.84 | 27.47 – 29.49 |
| 2028 | 28.43 | 34.74 | 22.12 | 26.1 – 30.76 |
| 2030 | 28.38 | 36.52 | 20.24 | 24.86 – 31.9 |
| 2035 | 28.26 | 39.77 | 16.74 | 21.97 – 34.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.32typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.08 | 8.9 | -3.16 | 1.74 – 4.42 |
| 2028 | 1.23 | 11.31 | -5 | -1.07 – 3.52 |
| 2030 | -0.62 | 12.39 | -5 | -3.59 – 2.34 |
| 2035 | -5 | 13.4 | -5 | -5 – -0.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 24.48 | 26.39 | 22.83 | 23.73 – 25.24 |
| 2028 | 22.91 | 26.21 | 20.05 | 21.21 – 24.6 |
| 2030 | 21.33 | 25.59 | 17.64 | 18.91 – 23.75 |
| 2035 | 17.38 | 23.41 | 12.16 | 13.74 – 21.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.62· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.98typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 1.2bn – 1.2bn |
| 2028 | 1.2bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn – 1.3bn |
| 2030 | 1.3bn | 1.3bn | 1.2bn | 1.1bn – 1.4bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 1.4bn | 1.3bn | 1.1bn – 1.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±33.2mtypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.93 | 6.3 | -1.35 | 1.35 – 2.5 |
| 2028 | 2.47 | 10.04 | -3.21 | 1.4 – 3.54 |
| 2030 | 3.01 | 12.79 | -4.32 | 1.55 – 4.48 |
| 2035 | 4.37 | 15 | -6 | 1.94 – 6.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.73typical miss · 1 realized · 43% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.77(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.91 | 8.77 | 3.05 | 5.38 – 6.44 |
| 2028 | 6.07 | 11.02 | 1.11 | 5.02 – 7.12 |
| 2030 | 6.15 | 12.54 | 0 | 4.68 – 7.62 |
| 2035 | 6.21 | 15.26 | 0 | 3.83 – 8.59 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.66· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.43 | 5.01 | 3.85 | 4.27 – 4.59 |
| 2028 | 3.95 | 4.96 | 2.94 | 3.61 – 4.3 |
| 2030 | 3.48 | 4.78 | 2.17 | 3 – 3.95 |
| 2035 | 2.29 | 4.13 | 0.45 | 1.64 – 2.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LDC · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 496.3bn | 2024 (4.63) |
| 2028 | 542.7bn | 2025 (4.67) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -5691497017294.546 + 1335646333590.0984·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.566 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.88 | 2024 (4.69) |
| 2027 | 4.93 | 2025 (3.36) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 5.0438 + -0.0347·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.546 over 40 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.38 | 2024 (3.87) |
| 2027 | 6.92 | 2025 (4.3) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 11.4954 + -1.0635·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LDC?indicator= · API docs
