Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Liechtenstein: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Liechtenstein's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.703 over 11 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.5 | 2025 (16.2) |
Latest observed16.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.51 | 21.26 | 9.76 | 14.09 – 16.93 |
| 2028 | 14.13 | 24.1 | 4.17 | 11.42 – 16.84 |
| 2030 | 12.75 | 25.62 | -0.11 | 9.11 – 16.4 |
| 2035 | 9.31 | 27.5 | -8.89 | 4.11 – 14.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead16.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.09typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.4bn | 10.8bn | 8.3bn | 9.1bn – 9.8bn |
| 2028 | 10.4bn | 12.8bn | 8.4bn | 9.6bn – 11.2bn |
| 2030 | 11.4bn | 14.4bn | 8.8bn | 10.1bn – 12.7bn |
| 2035 | 13.8bn | 18.1bn | 10.1bn | 11bn – 16.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±152.2mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.16(2009)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.17 | 12 | -10 | -6.47 – 4.13 |
| 2028 | -3.72 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 5.61 |
| 2030 | -6.26 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 6.05 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 8.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.17typical miss · 1 realized · 217% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed220.2k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 226.9k | 250k | 196.9k | 219.2k – 234.7k |
| 2028 | 246.1k | 250k | 194.1k | 227.1k – 250k |
| 2030 | 250k | 250k | 182.8k | 220.8k – 250k |
| 2035 | 250k | 250k | 155k | 196.9k – 250k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead239k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.5 | 0.68 | 0.29 | 0.45 – 0.55 |
| 2028 | 0.5 | 0.77 | 0.18 | 0.41 – 0.59 |
| 2030 | 0.5 | 0.85 | 0.09 | 0.36 – 0.63 |
| 2035 | 0.49 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 – 0.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.07 | 2.6 | -2.94 | -0.68 – 0.54 |
| 2028 | -1.33 | 3.3 | -5 | -2.42 – -0.24 |
| 2030 | -2.59 | 3.38 | -5 | -4.12 – -1.06 |
| 2035 | -5 | 3.45 | -5 | -5 – -2.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.61· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.77typical miss · 1 realized · 110% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.9k | 42.8k | 39.1k | 39.6k – 42.2k |
| 2028 | 41.5k | 43.5k | 39.7k | 38.5k – 44.6k |
| 2030 | 42.2k | 44.2k | 40.3k | 37.4k – 47k |
| 2035 | 43.7k | 45.8k | 41.8k | 34.7k – 52.8k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.75 | 3.16 | 0.34 | 1.51 – 1.99 |
| 2028 | 1.25 | 3.68 | 0 | 0.81 – 1.68 |
| 2030 | 0.74 | 3.89 | 0 | 0.18 – 1.3 |
| 2035 | 0 | 4.45 | 0 | 0 – 0.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.55typical miss · 1 realized · 24% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LIE · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 0.426 + 0.0047·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LIE?indicator= · API docs
