Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Liechtenstein: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2027, 2029, 2031, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Liechtenstein's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.719 over 12 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.24 | 2026 (12.7) |
Latest observed12.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 12.07 | 14.16 | 9.98 | 11.45 – 12.69 |
| 2029 | 10.81 | 14.43 | 7.18 | 9.55 – 12.07 |
| 2031 | 9.55 | 14.23 | 4.86 | 7.83 – 11.26 |
| 2036 | 6.39 | 13.01 | -0.23 | 4.02 – 8.76 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.91· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 9.8bn | 11bn | 8.7bn | 9.4bn – 10.1bn |
| 2029 | 10.6bn | 12.7bn | 8.7bn | 9.8bn – 11.3bn |
| 2031 | 11.4bn | 14.2bn | 8.9bn | 10.1bn – 12.7bn |
| 2036 | 13.4bn | 17.4bn | 9.9bn | 10.6bn – 16.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.16(2009)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -1.14 | 12 | -10 | -4.77 – 2.49 |
| 2029 | -2.97 | 12 | -10 | -9.37 – 3.44 |
| 2031 | -4.79 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 3.67 |
| 2036 | -9.36 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 3.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.73· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed220.2k(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 232.2k | 250k | 204k | 224.6k – 239.8k |
| 2029 | 246.5k | 250k | 197.6k | 228k – 250k |
| 2031 | 250k | 250k | 186.8k | 221.3k – 250k |
| 2036 | 250k | 250k | 160.6k | 197.7k – 250k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead234.9k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.49 | 0.67 | 0.28 | 0.44 – 0.54 |
| 2029 | 0.47 | 0.66 | 0.26 | 0.4 – 0.55 |
| 2031 | 0.46 | 0.69 | 0.19 | 0.34 – 0.57 |
| 2036 | 0.42 | 0.74 | 0.04 | 0.2 – 0.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.5· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.73 | 3.17 | -1.89 | 0.17 – 1.29 |
| 2029 | 1.15 | 5.38 | -3.38 | 0.16 – 2.14 |
| 2031 | 1.57 | 7.03 | -4.28 | 0.23 – 2.9 |
| 2036 | 2.62 | 10.34 | -5 | 0.49 – 4.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.36· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 41.9k | 43.9k | 40.1k | 40.6k – 43.2k |
| 2029 | 43k | 45k | 41.1k | 39.8k – 46.2k |
| 2031 | 44k | 46.1k | 42.1k | 39k – 49.1k |
| 2036 | 46.7k | 48.9k | 44.7k | 37k – 56.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.4k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.14 | 4.76 | 3.52 | 3.98 – 4.3 |
| 2029 | 4.63 | 5.7 | 3.56 | 4.24 – 5.02 |
| 2031 | 5.11 | 6.5 | 3.73 | 4.49 – 5.74 |
| 2036 | 6.33 | 8.29 | 4.37 | 5.02 – 7.64 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.06· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LIE · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.8256 + -0.0463·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.701 over 12 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 0.49 | 2026 (12.7) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 0.4307 + 0.0045·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LIE?indicator= · API docs
