Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Late-demographic dividend: forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Late-demographic dividend's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.543 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.32 | 2025 (4.5) |
Latest observed31.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.79 | 34.24 | 29.67 | 30.81 – 32.78 |
| 2028 | 32.8 | 37.04 | 29.12 | 30.37 – 35.22 |
| 2030 | 33.8 | 39.27 | 29.05 | 29.96 – 37.64 |
| 2035 | 36.31 | 44.05 | 29.6 | 28.77 – 43.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.4typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.9T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.8T | 35.9T | 30.1T | 31.8T – 33.8T |
| 2028 | 35.2T | 40.5T | 30.6T | 32.6T – 37.8T |
| 2030 | 37.6T | 44.5T | 31.7T | 33.4T – 41.9T |
| 2035 | 43.7T | 53.4T | 35.3T | 34.6T – 52.8T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.1T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.1Ttypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.45(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.58 | 12 | -2.25 | 3.19 – 5.97 |
| 2028 | 4.88 | 12 | -6.96 | 2.37 – 7.39 |
| 2030 | 5.17 | 12 | -10 | 1.82 – 8.52 |
| 2035 | 5.91 | 12 | -10 | 0.81 – 11.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.46typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.1k | 15.4k | 12.9k | 13.6k – 14.5k |
| 2028 | 15.1k | 17.4k | 13.1k | 14k – 16.2k |
| 2030 | 16.1k | 19.1k | 13.5k | 14.3k – 17.9k |
| 2035 | 18.6k | 22.8k | 15k | 14.8k – 22.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±480.47typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.82 | 28.21 | 25.44 | 25.99 – 27.65 |
| 2028 | 27.19 | 29.59 | 24.79 | 25.18 – 29.2 |
| 2030 | 27.56 | 30.65 | 24.46 | 24.43 – 30.69 |
| 2035 | 28.48 | 32.86 | 24.1 | 22.57 – 34.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.13typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.39 | 11.01 | -2.71 | 2.85 – 5.93 |
| 2028 | 5.57 | 17.04 | -5 | 2.76 – 8.38 |
| 2030 | 6.75 | 21.55 | -5 | 2.92 – 10.57 |
| 2035 | 9.69 | 30.63 | -5 | 3.5 – 15.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.8· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.89(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 32.54 | 34.25 | 31.06 | 31.53 – 33.55 |
| 2027 | 31.62 | 34.12 | 29.46 | 29.28 – 33.96 |
| 2029 | 30.71 | 33.93 | 27.92 | 27.22 – 34.2 |
| 2034 | 28.43 | 32.98 | 24.48 | 22.53 – 34.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.3bn – 2.4bn |
| 2028 | 2.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.2bn – 2.5bn |
| 2030 | 2.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.2bn | 2.1bn – 2.6bn |
| 2035 | 2.3bn | 2.4bn | 2.2bn | 1.9bn – 2.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.9mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.37 | 6.45 | 1.06 | 2.93 – 3.81 |
| 2028 | 3.52 | 8.86 | -0.48 | 2.69 – 4.36 |
| 2030 | 3.67 | 10.56 | -1.49 | 2.52 – 4.83 |
| 2035 | 4.06 | 13.8 | -3.25 | 2.19 – 5.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.18· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.21typical miss · 1 realized · 37% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.53(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.92 | 13.39 | 8.44 | 10.36 – 11.47 |
| 2028 | 11.37 | 15.67 | 7.08 | 10.17 – 12.58 |
| 2030 | 11.6 | 17.14 | 6.06 | 9.82 – 13.38 |
| 2035 | 11.78 | 19.62 | 3.94 | 8.69 – 14.86 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.31· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.2 | 4.45 | 3.96 | 4.07 – 4.33 |
| 2028 | 3.62 | 4.03 | 3.2 | 3.35 – 3.88 |
| 2030 | 3.03 | 3.57 | 2.49 | 2.68 – 3.37 |
| 2035 | 1.56 | 2.32 | 0.8 | 1.19 – 1.93 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LTE · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ -4.7448 + 2.0141·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.525 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.94 | 2025 (4.5) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 16.8453 + -2.4232·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.522 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.96 | 2025 (4.45) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.4137 + 0.1234·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.51 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.7T | 2023 (5.87) |
| 2027 | 16.5T | 2024 (2.9) |
| 2028 | 14.9T | 2025 (3.75) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 22139918538061.316 + -1945485764350.6267·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LTE?indicator= · API docs
