Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Lithuania: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Lithuania's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.816 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.85 | 2023 (80.4bn) |
Latest observed-2.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.64 | 8.49 | -11.77 | -3.73 – 0.46 |
| 2028 | -2.91 | 14.63 | -20.45 | -6.63 – 0.81 |
| 2030 | -4.18 | 18.46 | -26.83 | -9.14 – 0.77 |
| 2035 | -7.37 | 24.66 | -30 | -15.08 – 0.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.19· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.66typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.9 | 85.88 | 61.65 | 69.88 – 75.92 |
| 2028 | 72.73 | 95.22 | 53.25 | 66.03 – 79.44 |
| 2030 | 72.57 | 101.59 | 47.41 | 62.61 – 82.52 |
| 2035 | 72.15 | 113.2 | 36.57 | 54.74 – 89.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73.91· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.73typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed95.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 100.9bn | 108.3bn | 94.5bn | 97.8bn – 104bn |
| 2028 | 115.2bn | 128.1bn | 104.1bn | 106.7bn – 123.8bn |
| 2030 | 129.6bn | 146.2bn | 115.2bn | 114.9bn – 144.3bn |
| 2035 | 165.4bn | 188.9bn | 145bn | 131.1bn – 199.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead111.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.61 | 11.02 | -2.82 | 2.31 – 4.9 |
| 2028 | 5.01 | 12 | -6.12 | 2.63 – 7.39 |
| 2030 | 6.42 | 12 | -7.95 | 3.14 – 9.7 |
| 2035 | 9.94 | 12 | -10 | 4.44 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.91typical miss · 1 realized · 34% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 34.8k | 37.3k | 32.6k | 33.7k – 35.9k |
| 2028 | 39.5k | 43.8k | 35.7k | 36.5k – 42.4k |
| 2030 | 44.1k | 49.8k | 39.2k | 39.1k – 49.1k |
| 2035 | 55.8k | 63.8k | 48.9k | 44.2k – 67.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.88(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.49 | 4.24 | 0.61 | 2.01 – 2.96 |
| 2029 | 2.02 | 5.05 | 0 | 1.17 – 2.86 |
| 2031 | 1.79 | 5.7 | 0 | 0.68 – 2.89 |
| 2036 | 1.6 | 7.14 | 0 | 0 – 3.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.88· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.59 | 47.76 | 30.15 | 37.69 – 41.48 |
| 2028 | 39.76 | 53.92 | 23.41 | 35.67 – 43.84 |
| 2030 | 39.93 | 58.22 | 18.82 | 33.92 – 45.94 |
| 2035 | 40.35 | 66.22 | 10.51 | 29.92 – 50.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.11typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.12 | 89.01 | 49.24 | 64.97 – 73.27 |
| 2028 | 69.13 | 103.57 | 34.68 | 60.54 – 77.72 |
| 2030 | 69.13 | 113.59 | 24.66 | 56.79 – 81.46 |
| 2035 | 69.13 | 132.02 | 6.24 | 48.45 – 89.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead70.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.37typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.93 | 24.73 | -5 | 1.67 – 10.19 |
| 2028 | 10.24 | 42.79 | -5 | 2.53 – 17.95 |
| 2030 | 14.55 | 50 | -5 | 4.07 – 25.02 |
| 2035 | 25.31 | 50 | -5 | 8.09 – 42.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.53typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.73 | 21.8 | -5 | 2.07 – 9.38 |
| 2029 | 5.37 | 33.2 | -5 | -1.06 – 11.8 |
| 2031 | 5.24 | 41.17 | -5 | -3.14 – 13.63 |
| 2036 | 5.18 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.04· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.05 | 24.8 | 21.54 | 22.34 – 23.77 |
| 2028 | 23.37 | 26.4 | 20.75 | 21.64 – 25.1 |
| 2030 | 23.7 | 27.6 | 20.31 | 21 – 26.39 |
| 2035 | 24.5 | 30.03 | 19.71 | 19.42 – 29.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.8m – 3m |
| 2028 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.7m – 3.1m |
| 2030 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.6m – 3.2m |
| 2035 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.3m – 3.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±17ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.28 | 10.51 | -2.13 | 2.33 – 4.24 |
| 2028 | 4.27 | 15 | -5.11 | 2.5 – 6.04 |
| 2030 | 5.26 | 15 | -6.85 | 2.82 – 7.7 |
| 2035 | 7.74 | 15 | -9.39 | 3.65 – 11.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.08typical miss · 1 realized · 74% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.6bn | 8bn | 5.2bn | 6.3bn – 6.9bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 9.7bn | 4.9bn | 6.6bn – 8.1bn |
| 2030 | 8.1bn | 11.2bn | 5bn | 7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2035 | 10bn | 14.4bn | 5.6bn | 7.7bn – 12.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.21 | 1.69 | 0.73 | 1.11 – 1.3 |
| 2028 | 1.25 | 2.09 | 0.41 | 1.06 – 1.44 |
| 2030 | 1.27 | 2.35 | 0.19 | 1 – 1.54 |
| 2035 | 1.29 | 2.81 | 0 | 0.85 – 1.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5bn | 8.8bn | 6.2bn | 7.2bn – 7.8bn |
| 2028 | 8.5bn | 10.8bn | 6.2bn | 7.7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2030 | 9.5bn | 12.4bn | 6.5bn | 8.3bn – 10.7bn |
| 2035 | 11.9bn | 16.1bn | 7.8bn | 9.4bn – 14.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.48 | 8.1 | 4.86 | 6.13 – 6.83 |
| 2028 | 5.99 | 8.79 | 3.18 | 5.27 – 6.7 |
| 2030 | 5.49 | 9.11 | 1.87 | 4.5 – 6.48 |
| 2035 | 4.25 | 9.37 | 0 | 2.79 – 5.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.32typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LTU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 53.04 | 2024 (85.5bn) |
| 2028 | 57.17 | 2025 (95.2bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 16.6584 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.697 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.3bn | 2025 (6.73) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 83578764273.6332 + -4053853612.2007·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.678 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.02 | 2025 (3.79) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 4.1 + -0.0219·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.651 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4 | 2024 (85.5bn) |
| 2027 | 7.15 | 2025 (95.2bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -10.0887 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.618 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.59 | 2023 (-0.8) |
| 2027 | 7.59 | 2024 (1.6) |
| 2028 | 8.68 | 2025 (-1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 8.2574 + -0.4187·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.534 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.79 | 2023 (0.74) |
| 2027 | 6.47 | 2024 (3.03) |
| 2028 | 6.58 | 2025 (2.92) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 9.5346 + -1.012·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LTU?indicator= · API docs
