Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Lithuania: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Lithuania's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.825 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 51.82 | 2024 (85.5bn) |
Latest observed0.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.3 | 9.09 | -9.69 | -2.23 – 1.63 |
| 2029 | -1.3 | 14.96 | -17.57 | -4.69 – 2.08 |
| 2031 | -2.31 | 18.69 | -23.3 | -6.78 – 2.16 |
| 2036 | -4.81 | 24.88 | -30 | -11.64 – 2.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.16· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed72.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 72.9 | 85.88 | 61.65 | 69.88 – 75.92 |
| 2028 | 72.73 | 95.22 | 53.25 | 66.03 – 79.44 |
| 2030 | 72.57 | 101.59 | 47.41 | 62.61 – 82.52 |
| 2035 | 72.15 | 113.2 | 36.57 | 54.74 – 89.55 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73.91· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.73typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed95.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 112.3bn | 119bn | 106.4bn | 108.8bn – 115.7bn |
| 2029 | 128.4bn | 140.1bn | 118.3bn | 118.9bn – 137.9bn |
| 2031 | 144.6bn | 159.7bn | 131.5bn | 128.2bn – 161bn |
| 2036 | 185bn | 206.4bn | 166.5bn | 146.6bn – 223.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead112.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.92(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.72 | 7.05 | -1.03 | 1.95 – 3.48 |
| 2029 | 2.34 | 9.83 | -4.16 | 0.98 – 3.7 |
| 2031 | 1.96 | 11.64 | -6.43 | 0.19 – 3.73 |
| 2036 | 1.01 | 12 | -10 | -1.44 – 3.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.85· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed33k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.6k | 41k | 36.6k | 37.4k – 39.8k |
| 2029 | 44k | 48.1k | 40.5k | 40.8k – 47.3k |
| 2031 | 49.4k | 54.6k | 44.9k | 43.8k – 55k |
| 2036 | 62.9k | 70.3k | 56.4k | 49.8k – 75.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead38.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.88(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.49 | 4.24 | 0.61 | 2.01 – 2.96 |
| 2029 | 2.02 | 5.05 | 0 | 1.17 – 2.86 |
| 2031 | 1.79 | 5.7 | 0 | 0.68 – 2.89 |
| 2036 | 1.6 | 7.14 | 0 | 0 – 3.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.88· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed45.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 45.59 | 54.3 | 35.53 | 43.52 – 47.66 |
| 2029 | 46.56 | 61.65 | 29.14 | 42 – 51.11 |
| 2031 | 47.53 | 67.01 | 25.04 | 40.73 – 54.33 |
| 2036 | 49.95 | 77.51 | 18.16 | 37.72 – 62.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed69.12(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69.12 | 89.01 | 49.24 | 64.97 – 73.27 |
| 2028 | 69.13 | 103.57 | 34.68 | 60.54 – 77.72 |
| 2030 | 69.13 | 113.59 | 24.66 | 56.79 – 81.46 |
| 2035 | 69.13 | 132.02 | 6.24 | 48.45 – 89.82 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead70.76· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.37typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.08 | 22.64 | -5 | -0.1 – 8.26 |
| 2029 | 4.37 | 36.51 | -5 | -2.96 – 11.71 |
| 2031 | 4.67 | 46.16 | -5 | -4.9 – 14.24 |
| 2036 | 5.39 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 19.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.36· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.41 | 21.44 | -5 | 1.77 – 9.05 |
| 2029 | 5.22 | 33 | -5 | -1.18 – 11.63 |
| 2031 | 5.16 | 41.01 | -5 | -3.2 – 13.52 |
| 2036 | 5.12 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.17· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.05 | 24.8 | 21.54 | 22.34 – 23.77 |
| 2028 | 23.37 | 26.4 | 20.75 | 21.64 – 25.1 |
| 2030 | 23.7 | 27.6 | 20.31 | 21 – 26.39 |
| 2035 | 24.5 | 30.03 | 19.71 | 19.42 – 29.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.8m – 3m |
| 2029 | 2.9m | 3m | 2.8m | 2.7m – 3.1m |
| 2031 | 2.9m | 3.1m | 2.8m | 2.6m – 3.2m |
| 2036 | 2.9m | 3.1m | 2.8m | 2.3m – 3.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.28 | 10.51 | -2.13 | 2.33 – 4.24 |
| 2028 | 4.27 | 15 | -5.11 | 2.5 – 6.04 |
| 2030 | 5.26 | 15 | -6.85 | 2.82 – 7.7 |
| 2035 | 7.74 | 15 | -9.39 | 3.65 – 11.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.08typical miss · 1 realized · 74% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.6bn | 8bn | 5.2bn | 6.3bn – 6.9bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 9.7bn | 4.9bn | 6.6bn – 8.1bn |
| 2030 | 8.1bn | 11.2bn | 5bn | 7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2035 | 10bn | 14.4bn | 5.6bn | 7.7bn – 12.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.17(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.21 | 1.69 | 0.73 | 1.11 – 1.3 |
| 2028 | 1.25 | 2.09 | 0.41 | 1.06 – 1.44 |
| 2030 | 1.27 | 2.35 | 0.19 | 1 – 1.54 |
| 2035 | 1.29 | 2.81 | 0 | 0.85 – 1.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.14· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.5bn | 8.8bn | 6.2bn | 7.2bn – 7.8bn |
| 2028 | 8.5bn | 10.8bn | 6.2bn | 7.7bn – 9.2bn |
| 2030 | 9.5bn | 12.4bn | 6.5bn | 8.3bn – 10.7bn |
| 2035 | 11.9bn | 16.1bn | 7.8bn | 9.4bn – 14.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.48 | 7.75 | 5.2 | 6.18 – 6.78 |
| 2029 | 6.44 | 8.65 | 4.23 | 5.79 – 7.09 |
| 2031 | 6.4 | 9.25 | 3.55 | 5.45 – 7.35 |
| 2036 | 6.29 | 10.33 | 2.26 | 4.67 – 7.92 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.49· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LTU · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 55.75 | 2025 (95.2bn) |
| 2029 | 60.07 | 2026 (105.9bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 17.2231 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.693 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 60.4bn | 2026 (6.5) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 89181583733.723 + -4431099107.6225·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.689 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.14 | 2025 (95.2bn) |
| 2028 | 9.06 | 2026 (105.9bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -9.9804 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.677 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.98 | 2026 (4) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 4.065 + -0.0218·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.637 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.79 | 2024 (3.2) |
| 2028 | 7.61 | 2025 (1.3) |
| 2029 | 8.08 | 2026 (0.2) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 8.1715 + -0.433·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.532 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.33 | 2024 (3.03) |
| 2028 | 6.44 | 2025 (2.92) |
| 2029 | 6.46 | 2026 (2.9) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 9.3829 + -1.0087·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LTU?indicator= · API docs
