Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Luxembourg: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Luxembourg's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.966 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 30.44 | 2024 (93.3bn) |
Latest observed4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.16 | 7.54 | 0.78 | 3.4 – 4.91 |
| 2029 | 3.48 | 9.33 | -2.38 | 2.11 – 4.84 |
| 2031 | 2.79 | 10.35 | -4.77 | 1.03 – 4.56 |
| 2036 | 1.08 | 11.77 | -9.6 | -1.27 – 3.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed190.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 128.81 | 144.11 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 113.3 | 136.75 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 102.62 | 130.19 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 82.99 | 114.95 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead150· skill-weighted across models
Track record±40.52typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed101.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 115.6bn | 126.9bn | 105.8bn | 112bn – 119.2bn |
| 2029 | 128.6bn | 148.2bn | 111.6bn | 119.1bn – 138.1bn |
| 2031 | 141.6bn | 167bn | 119.6bn | 125.5bn – 157.7bn |
| 2036 | 174.2bn | 210bn | 143.1bn | 138bn – 210.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead115.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.74 | 9.1 | -4.63 | 0.49 – 3 |
| 2029 | 2.05 | 12 | -8.98 | -0.17 – 4.27 |
| 2031 | 2.36 | 12 | -10 | -0.56 – 5.29 |
| 2036 | 3.14 | 12 | -10 | -1.24 – 7.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.39· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed147.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 164.6k | 182.3k | 149.2k | 159.5k – 169.7k |
| 2029 | 179.5k | 210.3k | 152.8k | 166.2k – 192.7k |
| 2031 | 194.4k | 234.1k | 159.9k | 172.3k – 216.4k |
| 2036 | 231.6k | 250k | 182.9k | 183.6k – 250k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead164.6k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.19(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.65 | 4.62 | 0.55 | 2.13 – 3.18 |
| 2029 | 2.02 | 5.42 | 0 | 1.08 – 2.95 |
| 2031 | 1.71 | 6.1 | 0 | 0.49 – 2.93 |
| 2036 | 1.46 | 7.68 | 0 | 0 – 3.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.27· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 28.73 | 30.44 | 26.75 | 27.84 – 29.62 |
| 2029 | 30.18 | 33.15 | 26.75 | 27.95 – 32.41 |
| 2031 | 31.63 | 35.47 | 27.2 | 28.04 – 35.22 |
| 2036 | 35.26 | 40.69 | 29 | 27.95 – 42.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.52· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed159.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 150 | 150 | 126.57 | 144.01 – 150 |
| 2028 | 150 | 150 | 109.42 | 136.59 – 150 |
| 2030 | 150 | 150 | 97.61 | 129.98 – 150 |
| 2035 | 150 | 150 | 75.92 | 114.66 – 150 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead150· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.36typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.26(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.08 | 6.54 | -2.7 | 1.05 – 3.1 |
| 2029 | 1.86 | 9.58 | -5 | 0.05 – 3.66 |
| 2031 | 1.64 | 11.61 | -5 | -0.71 – 3.98 |
| 2036 | 1.09 | 15.19 | -5 | -2.21 – 4.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.85· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.4(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.17 | 8.08 | -2.1 | 2.03 – 4.31 |
| 2029 | 2.95 | 11.46 | -5 | 0.92 – 4.97 |
| 2031 | 2.87 | 13.85 | -5 | 0.2 – 5.53 |
| 2036 | 2.82 | 18.36 | -5 | -1.07 – 6.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.51· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.97(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.63 | 16.94 | 12.64 | 14.07 – 15.2 |
| 2028 | 13.74 | 17.72 | 10.28 | 12.51 – 14.97 |
| 2030 | 12.84 | 17.99 | 8.38 | 11.08 – 14.6 |
| 2035 | 10.6 | 17.88 | 4.29 | 7.86 – 13.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead14.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.09typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed687k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 693k | 725.7k | 662.6k | 671.5k – 714.5k |
| 2029 | 702.9k | 736.1k | 672.1k | 650.9k – 754.9k |
| 2031 | 712.9k | 746.5k | 681.6k | 631.9k – 793.8k |
| 2036 | 737.7k | 772.5k | 705.3k | 584.7k – 890.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead706.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.5(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.01 | 5.51 | -4.12 | -0.7 – 0.71 |
| 2028 | 1.07 | 10.6 | -6.07 | -0.17 – 2.32 |
| 2030 | 2.14 | 14.44 | -7.08 | 0.43 – 3.85 |
| 2035 | 4.81 | 15 | -8.23 | 1.87 – 7.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.21typical miss · 1 realized · 42% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8bn | 4.1bn | 1.6bn | 2.6bn – 3.1bn |
| 2028 | 3bn | 5.2bn | 877.5m | 2.6bn – 3.5bn |
| 2030 | 3.3bn | 6.1bn | 476.5m | 2.6bn – 4bn |
| 2035 | 3.8bn | 7.8bn | 0 | 2.6bn – 5.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.06 | 0.25 | 0 | 0.01 – 0.11 |
| 2028 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 – 0.11 |
| 2030 | 0.05 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 – 0.14 |
| 2035 | 0.05 | 0.24 | 0 | 0 – 0.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.07· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.2bn | 4.4bn | 1.9bn | 2.9bn – 3.4bn |
| 2028 | 3.5bn | 5.6bn | 1.4bn | 3bn – 4bn |
| 2030 | 3.8bn | 6.5bn | 1.1bn | 3.1bn – 4.5bn |
| 2035 | 4.6bn | 8.5bn | 720.7m | 3.3bn – 5.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.34(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.13 | 7.64 | 4.62 | 5.8 – 6.46 |
| 2029 | 6.6 | 9.22 | 3.98 | 5.88 – 7.31 |
| 2031 | 7.06 | 10.44 | 3.68 | 5.98 – 8.14 |
| 2036 | 8.22 | 13.01 | 3.44 | 6.17 – 10.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LUX · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 32.8 | 2025 (101.2bn) |
| 2029 | 35.58 | 2026 (110.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 2.4616 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.911 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.77 | 2025 (101.2bn) |
| 2028 | 8.35 | 2026 (110.4bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 1.4939 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.911 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 73.5bn | 2026 (5.9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -12765952663.9248 + 14615432373.0029·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.734 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.96 | 2026 (110.4bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 10.5685 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LUX?indicator= · API docs
