Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Latvia: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Latvia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.943 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 58 | 2023 (42.8bn) |
Latest observed-5.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.23 | -0.17 | -12.29 | -7.56 – -4.89 |
| 2028 | -8.09 | 2.41 | -18.58 | -10.62 – -5.56 |
| 2030 | -9.94 | 3.6 | -23.49 | -13.5 – -6.38 |
| 2035 | -14.59 | 4.57 | -30 | -20.83 – -8.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-5.71· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.33typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.85 | 75.94 | 51.5 | 59.97 – 65.73 |
| 2028 | 63.4 | 86.08 | 43.75 | 57.12 – 69.69 |
| 2030 | 63.96 | 93.23 | 38.58 | 54.66 – 73.26 |
| 2035 | 65.34 | 106.74 | 29.46 | 48.97 – 81.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead62.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.57typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed48.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.9bn | 55.6bn | 46.9bn | 49.3bn – 52.5bn |
| 2028 | 56.7bn | 64.8bn | 49.6bn | 52.5bn – 60.9bn |
| 2030 | 62.5bn | 73bn | 53.4bn | 55.4bn – 69.6bn |
| 2035 | 76.9bn | 91.8bn | 64bn | 61bn – 92.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.14(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.08 | 12 | -6.59 | 1.17 – 4.99 |
| 2028 | 5.08 | 12 | -10 | 1.62 – 8.54 |
| 2030 | 7.08 | 12 | -10 | 2.36 – 11.81 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.2 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.78typical miss · 1 realized · 34% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.6k | 30.1k | 25.4k | 26.8k – 28.5k |
| 2028 | 30.9k | 35.3k | 27.2k | 28.7k – 33.2k |
| 2030 | 34.3k | 39.9k | 29.4k | 30.4k – 38.2k |
| 2035 | 42.6k | 50.5k | 35.7k | 33.7k – 51.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.15(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.49 | 5.76 | 1.07 | 2.88 – 4.11 |
| 2029 | 2.71 | 6.64 | 0 | 1.62 – 3.81 |
| 2031 | 2.33 | 7.4 | 0 | 0.9 – 3.77 |
| 2036 | 2.03 | 9.19 | 0 | 0 – 4.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.27· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 47.75 | 52.03 | 42.8 | 46.27 – 49.23 |
| 2028 | 49.45 | 56.87 | 40.88 | 45.79 – 53.1 |
| 2030 | 51.14 | 60.73 | 40.08 | 45.34 – 56.95 |
| 2035 | 55.38 | 68.94 | 39.75 | 43.9 – 66.87 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.54· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.75typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed67.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 68.05 | 83.01 | 53.1 | 64.67 – 71.43 |
| 2028 | 69.85 | 95.76 | 43.95 | 62.54 – 77.17 |
| 2030 | 71.66 | 105.1 | 38.21 | 60.8 – 82.51 |
| 2035 | 76.16 | 123.45 | 28.87 | 56.73 – 95.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead68.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.09typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.53 | 22.25 | -5 | 1.74 – 9.33 |
| 2028 | 9.01 | 37.95 | -5 | 2.16 – 15.85 |
| 2030 | 12.48 | 49.85 | -5 | 3.19 – 21.76 |
| 2035 | 21.16 | 50 | -5 | 6.06 – 36.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.06· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.93typical miss · 1 realized · 54% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.62 | 20.8 | -5 | -0.25 – 7.49 |
| 2029 | 4.22 | 33.96 | -5 | -2.58 – 11.01 |
| 2031 | 4.43 | 42.83 | -5 | -4.44 – 13.3 |
| 2036 | 4.54 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 17.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.75· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.47(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.4 | 25.25 | 21.8 | 22.68 – 24.13 |
| 2028 | 23.32 | 26.52 | 20.54 | 21.59 – 25.04 |
| 2030 | 23.23 | 27.36 | 19.65 | 20.6 – 25.87 |
| 2035 | 23.02 | 28.87 | 17.96 | 18.25 – 27.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.01typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.8m | 1.8m – 1.9m |
| 2028 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.7m – 2m |
| 2030 | 1.8m | 1.9m | 1.7m | 1.6m – 2m |
| 2035 | 1.8m | 1.8m | 1.7m | 1.4m – 2.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.66 | 15 | -7.19 | 1.8 – 5.53 |
| 2028 | 5.09 | 15 | -10 | 1.71 – 8.46 |
| 2030 | 6.51 | 15 | -10 | 1.94 – 11.07 |
| 2035 | 10.07 | 15 | -10 | 2.74 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.4typical miss · 1 realized · 111% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.4bn | 6.4bn | 4.3bn | 5.1bn – 5.6bn |
| 2028 | 5.8bn | 7.7bn | 4bn | 5.3bn – 6.4bn |
| 2030 | 6.3bn | 8.7bn | 4bn | 5.4bn – 7.2bn |
| 2035 | 7.5bn | 10.8bn | 4.2bn | 5.8bn – 9.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.07 | 2.9 | 1.24 | 1.91 – 2.23 |
| 2028 | 2.14 | 3.58 | 0.7 | 1.82 – 2.46 |
| 2030 | 2.17 | 4.03 | 0.31 | 1.71 – 2.63 |
| 2035 | 2.2 | 4.83 | 0 | 1.45 – 2.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7.6bn | 5.2bn | 6.1bn – 6.7bn |
| 2028 | 7.1bn | 9.2bn | 5.1bn | 6.5bn – 7.8bn |
| 2030 | 7.9bn | 10.5bn | 5.2bn | 6.8bn – 8.9bn |
| 2035 | 9.7bn | 13.5bn | 6bn | 7.6bn – 11.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.29 | 7.06 | 5.51 | 6.07 – 6.51 |
| 2028 | 5.72 | 7.07 | 4.38 | 5.24 – 6.21 |
| 2030 | 5.16 | 6.9 | 3.43 | 4.48 – 5.84 |
| 2035 | 3.76 | 6.21 | 1.3 | 2.78 – 4.73 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.63· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.41typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/LVA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 59.52 | 2024 (44bn) |
| 2028 | 65.26 | 2025 (48.6bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 4.8122 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.798 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.05 | 2025 (2.14) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.4954 + -0.7256·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.701 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.2bn | 2025 (46.9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 9366603865.9908 + 550385531.2·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.646 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.7 | 2025 (48.6bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 16.5438 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.534 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.62 | 2023 (-0.94) |
| 2027 | 7.18 | 2024 (-0.04) |
| 2028 | 6.12 | 2025 (2.14) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 7.1614 + -0.4863·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/LVA?indicator= · API docs
