Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Macao: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Macao's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.656 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.72 | 2025 (52.1bn) |
Latest observed39.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 30 | 9.37 | 25.31 – 30 |
| 2028 | 30 | 30 | -5.74 | 21.27 – 30 |
| 2030 | 30 | 30 | -16.14 | 18.18 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 11.88 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30· skill-weighted across models
Track record±9.8typical miss · 1 realized · 25% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed92.29(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 94.65 | 124.88 | 68.46 | 88.82 – 100.49 |
| 2028 | 99.39 | 150 | 54.02 | 87.14 – 111.64 |
| 2030 | 104.13 | 150 | 45.55 | 86.14 – 122.11 |
| 2035 | 115.97 | 150 | 33.13 | 83.76 – 148.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead93.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.87typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed52.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 56.6bn | 86.3bn | 30.9bn | 52.2bn – 61.1bn |
| 2028 | 66.9bn | 118.2bn | 22.4bn | 57.6bn – 76.2bn |
| 2030 | 77.2bn | 143.5bn | 19.8bn | 63.1bn – 91.3bn |
| 2035 | 102.9bn | 196.7bn | 21.7bn | 75.3bn – 130.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead56.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2028 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2030 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±13.3typical miss · 1 realized · 403% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed75.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 82k | 126.3k | 43.7k | 75.4k – 88.6k |
| 2028 | 96k | 172.7k | 29.5k | 82.3k – 109.7k |
| 2030 | 109.9k | 208.9k | 24.1k | 89.4k – 130.5k |
| 2035 | 144.8k | 250k | 23.5k | 105k – 184.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead79.7k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.05 |
| 2028 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.05 |
| 2030 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.08 |
| 2035 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0 – 0.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0typical miss · 1 realized
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.85(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.76 | 83.75 | 13.76 | 42.62 – 54.89 |
| 2028 | 52.56 | 113.17 | 0 | 40.76 – 64.36 |
| 2030 | 56.36 | 134.61 | 0 | 39.87 – 72.85 |
| 2035 | 65.87 | 150 | 0 | 38.39 – 93.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.57typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.19 | 1.5 | -1.22 | -0.12 – 0.5 |
| 2028 | -0.29 | 1.98 | -2.72 | -0.84 – 0.27 |
| 2030 | -0.76 | 2.17 | -3.9 | -1.49 – -0.03 |
| 2035 | -1.95 | 2.2 | -5 | -3.18 – -0.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.61typical miss · 1 realized · 90% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed11.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.18 | 22.67 | 0 | 8.23 – 12.13 |
| 2028 | 5.87 | 27.51 | 0 | 2.49 – 9.24 |
| 2030 | 1.55 | 29.49 | 0 | 0 – 5.67 |
| 2035 | 0 | 39.51 | 0 | 0 – 5.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.25· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.1typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed685.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 684.1k | 716.4k | 654.1k | 662.9k – 705.3k |
| 2028 | 682.9k | 715.1k | 652.9k | 632.4k – 733.4k |
| 2030 | 681.7k | 713.9k | 651.8k | 604.3k – 759.1k |
| 2035 | 678.6k | 721.4k | 638.9k | 537.9k – 819.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead713.5k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±24.9ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.3 | 15 | -10 | -8.55 – 15 |
| 2028 | 14.33 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
| 2030 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.6typical miss · 1 realized · 105% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.8bn | 33.8bn | 29.9bn | 30.9bn – 32.8bn |
| 2028 | 34.8bn | 38.3bn | 31.4bn | 32.2bn – 37.4bn |
| 2030 | 37.8bn | 42.2bn | 33.3bn | 33.5bn – 42.1bn |
| 2035 | 45.2bn | 51.5bn | 38.9bn | 35.9bn – 54.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.06(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.07 | 17.79 | 2.36 | 8.73 – 11.41 |
| 2028 | 10.08 | 23.45 | 0 | 7.55 – 12.61 |
| 2030 | 10.09 | 27.34 | 0 | 6.64 – 13.54 |
| 2035 | 10.09 | 34.49 | 0 | 4.74 – 15.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.18· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.79typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.8bn | 33.8bn | 29.9bn | 30.9bn – 32.8bn |
| 2028 | 34.8bn | 38.3bn | 31.4bn | 32.2bn – 37.4bn |
| 2030 | 37.8bn | 42.2bn | 33.3bn | 33.5bn – 42.1bn |
| 2035 | 45.2bn | 51.5bn | 38.9bn | 35.9bn – 54.6bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.35(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.32 | 2.72 | 1.91 | 2.22 – 2.41 |
| 2028 | 2.25 | 2.96 | 1.55 | 2.04 – 2.47 |
| 2030 | 2.19 | 3.1 | 1.28 | 1.88 – 2.51 |
| 2035 | 2.04 | 3.32 | 0.75 | 1.51 – 2.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.62typical miss · 1 realized · 36% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MAC · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 4.5484 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.652 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 33.1bn | 2025 (2.35) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 51501581126.2972 + -7855174189.8259·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MAC?indicator= · API docs
