Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
MAE: forward projections across 8 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, MAE's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.924 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 144.42 | 2023 (47.8T) |
Latest observed-1.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.87 | -0.84 | -2.9 | -2.11 – -1.63 |
| 2028 | -2.41 | -0.63 | -4.19 | -2.89 – -1.93 |
| 2030 | -2.95 | -0.65 | -5.25 | -3.66 – -2.25 |
| 2035 | -4.3 | -1.05 | -7.56 | -5.65 – -2.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.17typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.5T(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 54.5T | 57.6T | 51.8T | 52.8T – 56.2T |
| 2028 | 59.1T | 64.5T | 54.5T | 54.8T – 63.5T |
| 2030 | 63.7T | 70.7T | 57.7T | 56.5T – 71T |
| 2035 | 75.3T | 85.1T | 66.7T | 59.6T – 90.9T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead57.7T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±946.7bntypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.84 | 11.64 | -6.65 | 0.18 – 3.51 |
| 2028 | 2.14 | 12 | -10 | -0.8 – 5.07 |
| 2030 | 2.43 | 12 | -10 | -1.42 – 6.27 |
| 2035 | 3.16 | 12 | -10 | -2.51 – 8.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.14typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.4k(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 69k | 73k | 65.5k | 66.8k – 71.1k |
| 2028 | 74.3k | 81.3k | 68.2k | 68.8k – 79.8k |
| 2030 | 79.6k | 88.6k | 71.7k | 70.5k – 88.6k |
| 2035 | 92.8k | 105.6k | 81.7k | 73.6k – 112.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead73k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed123.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 124.19 | 138.44 | 107.74 | 120.01 – 128.37 |
| 2028 | 126.36 | 151.04 | 97.87 | 116.49 – 136.22 |
| 2030 | 128.53 | 160.4 | 91.76 | 113.34 – 143.71 |
| 2035 | 133.95 | 179.02 | 81.95 | 105.59 – 162.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead124.41· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.29typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.63 | 7.81 | -2.91 | 1.44 – 3.82 |
| 2028 | 2.35 | 11.31 | -5 | 0.25 – 4.45 |
| 2030 | 2.07 | 13.64 | -5 | -0.66 – 4.8 |
| 2035 | 1.37 | 17.73 | -5 | -2.47 – 5.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.57typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed788m(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 786.1m | 823.3m | 751.7m | 761.8m – 810.5m |
| 2028 | 788.5m | 825.8m | 753.9m | 730.2m – 846.9m |
| 2030 | 790.9m | 828.3m | 756.2m | 701.1m – 880.7m |
| 2035 | 796.9m | 834.5m | 761.9m | 631.6m – 962.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead790.8m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.9mtypical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.14 | 5.43 | 2.84 | 3.87 – 4.4 |
| 2028 | 3.41 | 5.65 | 1.17 | 2.9 – 3.92 |
| 2030 | 2.69 | 5.58 | 0 | 2.03 – 3.34 |
| 2035 | 0.87 | 4.96 | 0 | 0.09 – 1.66 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.46· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.36typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MAE · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 149.69 | 2024 (49.9T) |
| 2028 | 156.94 | 2025 (52.7T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 21.1855 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.849 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.1T | 2023 (121.4) |
| 2027 | 43.2T | 2024 (121.9) |
| 2028 | 43.6T | 2025 (123.1) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 8147156763707.715 + 287655076128.7933·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.651 over 22 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.02 | 2023 (121.4) |
| 2027 | 5 | 2024 (121.9) |
| 2028 | 4.95 | 2025 (123.1) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 10.0715 + -0.0416·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MAE?indicator= · API docs
