Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Moldova: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Moldova's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.892 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.79 | 2025 (39.2) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed-22(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -21.04 | -13.16 | -28.92 | -22.99 – -19.1 |
| 2028 | -23.73 | -10.08 | -30 | -27.65 – -19.8 |
| 2030 | -26.41 | -8.79 | -30 | -30 – -20.7 |
| 2035 | -30 | -5.08 | -30 | -30 – -20.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-23.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.96typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.25 | 42.9 | 23.01 | 30.21 – 34.28 |
| 2028 | 33.23 | 51.69 | 17.24 | 29 – 37.46 |
| 2030 | 34.22 | 58.04 | 13.57 | 28.08 – 40.36 |
| 2035 | 36.69 | 70.38 | 7.49 | 26 – 47.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.7bn | 23.5bn | 20.1bn | 21bn – 22.4bn |
| 2028 | 25bn | 28.2bn | 22.3bn | 23.2bn – 26.9bn |
| 2030 | 28.4bn | 32.5bn | 24.8bn | 25.2bn – 31.6bn |
| 2035 | 36.8bn | 42.6bn | 31.7bn | 29.1bn – 44.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±533.4mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.9 | 12 | -10 | -1.72 – 7.53 |
| 2028 | 4.06 | 12 | -10 | -4.06 – 12 |
| 2030 | 5.22 | 12 | -10 | -5.43 – 12 |
| 2035 | 8.12 | 12 | -10 | -7.65 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4typical miss · 1 realized · 94% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9.3k | 10.1k | 8.6k | 9k – 9.6k |
| 2028 | 10.9k | 12.3k | 9.7k | 10.1k – 11.7k |
| 2030 | 12.5k | 14.4k | 11k | 11.1k – 14k |
| 2035 | 16.7k | 19.2k | 14.4k | 13.2k – 20.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.2k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±228.17typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.53 | 46.41 | 31.58 | 37.83 – 41.22 |
| 2028 | 40.18 | 52.11 | 26.42 | 36.42 – 43.94 |
| 2030 | 40.83 | 56.23 | 23.07 | 35.2 – 46.47 |
| 2035 | 42.47 | 64.24 | 17.34 | 32.32 – 52.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.36· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.27typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.74 | 76.48 | 47 | 58.49 – 64.98 |
| 2028 | 63.39 | 88.91 | 37.86 | 56.44 – 70.34 |
| 2030 | 65.03 | 97.99 | 32.08 | 54.79 – 75.28 |
| 2035 | 69.16 | 115.76 | 22.55 | 50.96 – 87.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead61.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.84typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 36.89 | -5 | 3.88 – 16.12 |
| 2028 | 14.31 | 50 | -5 | 3.3 – 25.32 |
| 2030 | 18.62 | 50 | -5 | 3.8 – 33.45 |
| 2035 | 29.41 | 50 | -5 | 5.85 – 50 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.65· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.6typical miss · 1 realized · 35% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.89 | 25.2 | 19.02 | 21.07 – 22.71 |
| 2028 | 21.53 | 27.27 | 16.56 | 19.68 – 23.39 |
| 2030 | 21.18 | 28.58 | 14.76 | 18.42 – 23.93 |
| 2035 | 20.29 | 30.76 | 11.21 | 15.54 – 25.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.93typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.4m | 2.5m | 2.3m | 2.3m – 2.5m |
| 2028 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 2.2m – 2.5m |
| 2030 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 2m – 2.5m |
| 2035 | 2.2m | 2.3m | 2.1m | 1.7m – 2.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.3m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±38ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.52 | 15 | -10 | 1.29 – 7.75 |
| 2028 | 6.21 | 15 | -10 | 0.44 – 11.98 |
| 2030 | 7.9 | 15 | -10 | 0.2 – 15 |
| 2035 | 12.11 | 15 | -10 | 0.19 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.97typical miss · 1 realized · 131% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7bn | 5.7bn | 6.2bn – 6.6bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 8.4bn | 6.1bn | 6.7bn – 7.8bn |
| 2030 | 8.2bn | 9.7bn | 6.7bn | 7.3bn – 9.1bn |
| 2035 | 10.5bn | 12.6bn | 8.4bn | 8.3bn – 12.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.48 | 7.45 | 3.5 | 5.09 – 5.87 |
| 2028 | 5.57 | 9 | 2.14 | 4.78 – 6.36 |
| 2030 | 5.62 | 10.04 | 1.19 | 4.49 – 6.74 |
| 2035 | 5.65 | 11.91 | 0 | 3.79 – 7.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.38· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7bn | 5.7bn | 6.2bn – 6.6bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 8.4bn | 6.1bn | 6.8bn – 7.8bn |
| 2030 | 8.2bn | 9.7bn | 6.7bn | 7.3bn – 9.2bn |
| 2035 | 10.5bn | 12.6bn | 8.4bn | 8.3bn – 12.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.62 | 2.32 | 0.93 | 1.49 – 1.75 |
| 2028 | 1.85 | 3.06 | 0.65 | 1.58 – 2.13 |
| 2030 | 2.08 | 3.64 | 0.53 | 1.68 – 2.49 |
| 2035 | 2.66 | 4.86 | 0.47 | 1.9 – 3.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.52· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.18typical miss · 1 realized · 57% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MDA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.781 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.7 | 2025 (1.51) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 16.0972 + 9.0352·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.765 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.8bn | 2023 (1.57) |
| 2027 | 11bn | 2024 (1.43) |
| 2028 | 10.9bn | 2025 (1.51) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 13085063248.684 + -1443559139.1257·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.702 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.37 | 2025 (39.2) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 1.415 + 0.1773·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.68 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.96 | 2025 (7.76) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 3.0876 + -0.0158·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MDA?indicator= · API docs
