Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Moldova: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Moldova's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.889 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.84 | 2026 (39.3) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed-21.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -23.7 | -16.12 | -30 | -25.62 – -21.77 |
| 2029 | -27.29 | -14.17 | -30 | -30 – -23.3 |
| 2031 | -30 | -13.07 | -30 | -30 – -24.14 |
| 2036 | -30 | -6.05 | -30 | -30 – -20.31 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-23.2· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed31.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.25 | 42.9 | 23.01 | 30.21 – 34.28 |
| 2028 | 33.23 | 51.69 | 17.24 | 29 – 37.46 |
| 2030 | 34.22 | 58.04 | 13.57 | 28.08 – 40.36 |
| 2035 | 36.69 | 70.38 | 7.49 | 26 – 47.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead31.84· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 23.2bn | 24.9bn | 21.7bn | 22.5bn – 23.9bn |
| 2029 | 26.6bn | 29.6bn | 24bn | 24.6bn – 28.6bn |
| 2031 | 30bn | 33.8bn | 26.6bn | 26.6bn – 33.4bn |
| 2036 | 38.4bn | 43.8bn | 33.7bn | 30.4bn – 46.3bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead23.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.42(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.01 | 12 | -10 | -0.98 – 4.99 |
| 2029 | 2.15 | 12 | -10 | -3.07 – 7.37 |
| 2031 | 2.3 | 12 | -10 | -4.49 – 9.08 |
| 2036 | 2.66 | 12 | -10 | -7.11 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.76· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 10k | 10.7k | 9.4k | 9.7k – 10.3k |
| 2029 | 11.6k | 12.9k | 10.5k | 10.8k – 12.5k |
| 2031 | 13.3k | 15k | 11.9k | 11.8k – 14.8k |
| 2036 | 17.4k | 19.8k | 15.4k | 13.8k – 21k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.1k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 40.02 | 46.55 | 32.5 | 38.38 – 41.67 |
| 2029 | 41.47 | 52.77 | 28.44 | 37.74 – 45.2 |
| 2031 | 42.92 | 57.51 | 26.09 | 37.24 – 48.6 |
| 2036 | 46.54 | 67.17 | 22.74 | 35.92 – 57.16 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.81· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed60.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 61.74 | 76.48 | 47 | 58.49 – 64.98 |
| 2028 | 63.39 | 88.91 | 37.86 | 56.44 – 70.34 |
| 2030 | 65.03 | 97.99 | 32.08 | 54.79 – 75.28 |
| 2035 | 69.16 | 115.76 | 22.55 | 50.96 – 87.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead61.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.84typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.76(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.88 | 32.82 | -5 | -0.18 – 11.95 |
| 2029 | 3.98 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 14.51 |
| 2031 | 2.08 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 15.6 |
| 2036 | -2.68 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 16.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.4· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.89 | 25.2 | 19.02 | 21.07 – 22.71 |
| 2028 | 21.53 | 27.27 | 16.56 | 19.68 – 23.39 |
| 2030 | 21.18 | 28.58 | 14.76 | 18.42 – 23.93 |
| 2035 | 20.29 | 30.76 | 11.21 | 15.54 – 25.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.93typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4m | 2.5m | 2.3m | 2.3m – 2.4m |
| 2029 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 2.2m – 2.5m |
| 2031 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 2m – 2.6m |
| 2036 | 2.3m | 2.4m | 2.2m | 1.8m – 2.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.3m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.52 | 15 | -10 | 1.29 – 7.75 |
| 2028 | 6.21 | 15 | -10 | 0.44 – 11.98 |
| 2030 | 7.9 | 15 | -10 | 0.2 – 15 |
| 2035 | 12.11 | 15 | -10 | 0.19 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.97typical miss · 1 realized · 131% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7bn | 5.7bn | 6.2bn – 6.6bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 8.4bn | 6.1bn | 6.7bn – 7.8bn |
| 2030 | 8.2bn | 9.7bn | 6.7bn | 7.3bn – 9.1bn |
| 2035 | 10.5bn | 12.6bn | 8.4bn | 8.3bn – 12.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.4(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.48 | 7.45 | 3.5 | 5.09 – 5.87 |
| 2028 | 5.57 | 9 | 2.14 | 4.78 – 6.36 |
| 2030 | 5.62 | 10.04 | 1.19 | 4.49 – 6.74 |
| 2035 | 5.65 | 11.91 | 0 | 3.79 – 7.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.38· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.4bn | 7bn | 5.7bn | 6.2bn – 6.6bn |
| 2028 | 7.3bn | 8.4bn | 6.1bn | 6.8bn – 7.8bn |
| 2030 | 8.2bn | 9.7bn | 6.7bn | 7.3bn – 9.2bn |
| 2035 | 10.5bn | 12.6bn | 8.4bn | 8.3bn – 12.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.28 | 6.02 | 2.54 | 3.94 – 4.61 |
| 2029 | 5.23 | 8.24 | 2.22 | 4.52 – 5.94 |
| 2031 | 6.18 | 10.07 | 2.29 | 5.09 – 7.27 |
| 2036 | 8.56 | 14.06 | 3.06 | 6.35 – 10.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.52· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MDA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.782 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 50.66 | 2026 (3.8) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 16.5644 + 8.9729·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.748 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.6bn | 2024 (1.43) |
| 2028 | 11.5bn | 2025 (1.51) |
| 2029 | 8bn | 2026 (3.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 13838598458.2604 + -1546516111.9564·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.705 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.33 | 2026 (39.3) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 1.331 + 0.178·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by CPI inflation by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.679 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by CPI inflation in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.95 | 2026 (6.4) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 3.0534 + -0.0158·CPI inflation. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MDA?indicator= · API docs
