Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Madagascar: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Madagascar's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.872 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50 | 2025 (3.04) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed-8.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -6.69 | -3.65 | -9.73 | -7.42 – -5.97 |
| 2028 | -8.08 | -2.81 | -13.34 | -9.54 – -6.62 |
| 2030 | -9.46 | -2.67 | -16.26 | -11.61 – -7.32 |
| 2035 | -12.93 | -3.32 | -22.54 | -16.96 – -8.9 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-9.21· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.01typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.33(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.54 | 30.46 | 11.95 | 18.8 – 22.29 |
| 2028 | 18.96 | 36.14 | 4.08 | 15.6 – 22.33 |
| 2030 | 17.38 | 39.55 | 0 | 12.83 – 21.94 |
| 2035 | 13.44 | 44.79 | 0 | 6.81 – 20.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.13typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed19.6bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.6bn | 22.5bn | 18.9bn | 19.9bn – 21.2bn |
| 2028 | 22.9bn | 26.3bn | 20bn | 21.2bn – 24.6bn |
| 2030 | 25.3bn | 29.7bn | 21.5bn | 22.4bn – 28.2bn |
| 2035 | 31.3bn | 37.4bn | 25.9bn | 24.8bn – 37.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±413.7mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.12 | 12 | -5.81 | 1.35 – 4.88 |
| 2028 | 3.44 | 12 | -10 | 0.3 – 6.58 |
| 2030 | 3.76 | 12 | -10 | -0.38 – 7.9 |
| 2035 | 4.56 | 12 | -10 | -1.6 – 10.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.73· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.68typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed599.27(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 618.26 | 681.33 | 563.61 | 599.1 – 637.43 |
| 2028 | 667.16 | 776.39 | 572.49 | 617.8 – 716.51 |
| 2030 | 716.05 | 857.07 | 593.83 | 634.75 – 797.35 |
| 2035 | 838.28 | 1k | 665.44 | 664.4 – 1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead667.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±30.75typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed49.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 48.93 | 56.75 | 39.9 | 46.94 – 50.91 |
| 2028 | 51.38 | 64.93 | 35.75 | 46.83 – 55.93 |
| 2030 | 53.84 | 71.33 | 33.65 | 46.84 – 60.83 |
| 2035 | 59.97 | 84.71 | 31.43 | 46.57 – 73.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead50.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.87typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.94 | 41.22 | 24.65 | 31.14 – 34.73 |
| 2028 | 32.99 | 47.34 | 18.64 | 29.21 – 36.77 |
| 2030 | 33.05 | 51.58 | 14.52 | 27.57 – 38.53 |
| 2035 | 33.19 | 59.39 | 6.98 | 23.86 – 42.51 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.3typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.36 | 11.68 | 4.8 | 7.49 – 9.23 |
| 2028 | 8.97 | 14.73 | 2.8 | 7.27 – 10.68 |
| 2030 | 9.58 | 17.01 | 1.62 | 7.17 – 12 |
| 2035 | 11.11 | 21.62 | -0.15 | 7.01 – 15.22 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.04typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.88 | 24.51 | 17.74 | 20.03 – 21.74 |
| 2028 | 20.57 | 26.85 | 15.13 | 18.68 – 22.45 |
| 2030 | 20.25 | 28.36 | 13.23 | 17.47 – 23.03 |
| 2035 | 19.46 | 30.93 | 9.53 | 14.71 – 24.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.97typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed32.7m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 32.5m | 34.1m | 31.1m | 31.5m – 33.5m |
| 2028 | 33.4m | 35m | 31.9m | 30.9m – 35.9m |
| 2030 | 34.2m | 35.9m | 32.7m | 30.4m – 38.1m |
| 2035 | 36.4m | 38.1m | 34.8m | 28.8m – 43.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.9m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±219.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.16 | 12.85 | -9.35 | -1.44 – 1.77 |
| 2028 | 0.54 | 15 | -10 | -2.25 – 3.34 |
| 2030 | 0.92 | 15 | -10 | -2.71 – 4.55 |
| 2035 | 1.87 | 15 | -10 | -3.45 – 7.18 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.16· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.23typical miss · 1 realized · 83855% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.9bn | 3.3bn | 2.5bn | 2.8bn – 3bn |
| 2027 | 3.3bn | 4bn | 2.6bn | 3bn – 3.5bn |
| 2029 | 3.6bn | 4.6bn | 2.7bn | 3.2bn – 4.1bn |
| 2034 | 4.5bn | 5.8bn | 3.2bn | 3.6bn – 5.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.55(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5.2 | 7.06 | 3.34 | 4.83 – 5.57 |
| 2027 | 4.79 | 8.01 | 1.56 | 4.06 – 5.51 |
| 2029 | 4.58 | 8.75 | 0.42 | 3.58 – 5.59 |
| 2034 | 4.42 | 10.32 | 0 | 2.81 – 6.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.68· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.9bn | 3.3bn | 2.5bn | 2.8bn – 3bn |
| 2027 | 3.3bn | 4bn | 2.6bn | 3bn – 3.5bn |
| 2029 | 3.6bn | 4.6bn | 2.7bn | 3.2bn – 4.1bn |
| 2034 | 4.5bn | 5.8bn | 3.2bn | 3.6bn – 5.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.96 | 3.3 | 2.63 | 2.86 – 3.06 |
| 2028 | 2.81 | 3.39 | 2.22 | 2.58 – 3.03 |
| 2030 | 2.65 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 2.32 – 2.98 |
| 2035 | 2.26 | 3.32 | 1.19 | 1.73 – 2.78 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.06· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MDG · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.858 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.01 | 2025 (47.7) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.5926 + 0.0507·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.816 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.3bn | 2023 (52.1) |
| 2027 | 11.6bn | 2024 (49.8) |
| 2028 | 11.8bn | 2025 (47.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 17779470839.0344 + -124948242.2656·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.508 over 33 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.74 | 2023 (52.1) |
| 2027 | 8.37 | 2024 (49.8) |
| 2028 | 8.03 | 2025 (47.7) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 0.3497 + 0.161·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MDG?indicator= · API docs
