Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Maldives: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Maldives's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.903 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 145.14 | 2025 (7.7bn) |
Latest observed-17.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -15.72 | 8.25 | -30 | -20.86 – -10.58 |
| 2029 | -11.95 | 29.55 | -30 | -21 – -2.91 |
| 2031 | -8.19 | 30 | -30 | -19.78 – 3.4 |
| 2036 | 1.22 | 30 | -30 | -14.44 – 16.88 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-16.95· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.21(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 80.37 | 107.93 | 56.49 | 75.15 – 85.6 |
| 2027 | 84.69 | 132.42 | 43.33 | 73.81 – 95.58 |
| 2029 | 89.01 | 150 | 35.61 | 73.09 – 104.93 |
| 2034 | 99.81 | 150 | 24.29 | 71.39 – 128.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead79.56· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.5bn | 10.7bn | 6.7bn | 8.1bn – 8.9bn |
| 2029 | 9.6bn | 13.3bn | 6.3bn | 8.7bn – 10.5bn |
| 2031 | 10.6bn | 15.4bn | 6.4bn | 9.2bn – 12bn |
| 2036 | 13.2bn | 20bn | 7.2bn | 10.3bn – 16.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.2 | 12 | -10 | -2.04 – 4.44 |
| 2029 | -3.38 | 12 | -10 | -9.11 – 2.36 |
| 2031 | -7.95 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -0.12 |
| 2036 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 1.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.6· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 20.8k | 26.2k | 16.1k | 19.8k – 21.8k |
| 2029 | 24.3k | 33.8k | 16.2k | 22.1k – 26.6k |
| 2031 | 27.9k | 40.1k | 17.3k | 24.2k – 31.6k |
| 2036 | 36.7k | 54k | 21.8k | 28.8k – 44.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.7k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed129.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 136.32 | 188.05 | 76.64 | 126.18 – 146.46 |
| 2029 | 150.17 | 239.76 | 46.79 | 129.17 – 171.16 |
| 2031 | 164.01 | 279.68 | 30.55 | 133.09 – 194.92 |
| 2036 | 198.62 | 300 | 9.87 | 141.67 – 255.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead133.43· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.26(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 78.96 | 90.75 | 67.16 | 75.89 – 82.02 |
| 2027 | 80.35 | 100.78 | 59.92 | 73.36 – 87.33 |
| 2029 | 81.74 | 108.11 | 55.36 | 71.16 – 92.31 |
| 2034 | 85.22 | 122.52 | 47.91 | 65.87 – 104.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead79.05· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.4 | 5.58 | -1.01 | 1.65 – 3.14 |
| 2029 | 0.99 | 6.5 | -4.92 | -0.28 – 2.26 |
| 2031 | -0.42 | 6.7 | -5 | -2.08 – 1.24 |
| 2036 | -3.94 | 6.12 | -5 | -5 – -1.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.24· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.84(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35.33 | 48.46 | 23.96 | 32.89 – 37.77 |
| 2027 | 35.85 | 58.59 | 16.15 | 30.89 – 40.82 |
| 2029 | 36.37 | 65.72 | 10.94 | 29.27 – 43.48 |
| 2034 | 37.68 | 70 | 1.7 | 25.72 – 49.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.15· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed529.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 405.9k | 478.2k | 338.6k | 393.3k – 418.4k |
| 2029 | 283k | 408.4k | 166.6k | 259.5k – 306.5k |
| 2031 | 160.2k | 322k | 9.9k | 134.5k – 185.8k |
| 2036 | 0 | 228.9k | 0 | 0 – 18.2k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead417.6k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.74 | 15 | -10 | -2.21 – 13.68 |
| 2028 | 7.61 | 15 | -10 | -6.35 – 15 |
| 2030 | 9.49 | 15 | -10 | -8.83 – 15 |
| 2035 | 14.19 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.55typical miss · 1 realized · 112% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed984.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 644.8m | 935.6m – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.1bn | 1.7bn | 447.7m | 927.7m – 1.2bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 2bn | 333.4m | 928.1m – 1.4bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.5bn | 168.3m | 928.6m – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead988.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.3(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 1.52 | 3.58 | 0 | 1.18 – 1.86 |
| 2027 | 1.78 | 5.35 | 0 | 1.15 – 2.41 |
| 2029 | 1.91 | 6.52 | 0 | 1.05 – 2.77 |
| 2034 | 2.01 | 8.53 | 0 | 0.69 – 3.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.19· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed984.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 644.8m | 935.6m – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.1bn | 1.7bn | 447.7m | 927.7m – 1.2bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 2bn | 333.4m | 928.1m – 1.4bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.5bn | 168.3m | 928.6m – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead988.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.31 | 5.05 | 3.57 | 4.13 – 4.5 |
| 2028 | 3.91 | 5.19 | 2.63 | 3.53 – 4.3 |
| 2030 | 3.51 | 5.16 | 1.86 | 2.98 – 4.04 |
| 2035 | 2.51 | 4.84 | 0.17 | 1.75 – 3.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MDV · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 151.31 | 2026 (8.1bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 22.4271 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.86 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 7.2bn | 2025 (125.4) |
| 2028 | 7.4bn | 2026 (129.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -132756432.1571 + 58163620.9262·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.603 over 47 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -26.92 | 2026 (8.1bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.9996 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MDV?indicator= · API docs
