Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Maldives: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Maldives's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.893 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 136.23 | 2024 (7.1bn) |
Latest observed-18.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.4 | 19.41 | -26.21 | -8.11 – 1.31 |
| 2028 | 2 | 30 | -30 | -6.15 – 10.16 |
| 2030 | 7.41 | 30 | -30 | -3.59 – 18.41 |
| 2035 | 20.91 | 30 | -30 | 2.85 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-18.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±15.2typical miss · 1 realized · 82% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.21(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 80.37 | 107.93 | 56.49 | 75.15 – 85.6 |
| 2027 | 84.69 | 132.42 | 43.33 | 73.81 – 95.58 |
| 2029 | 89.01 | 150 | 35.61 | 73.09 – 104.93 |
| 2034 | 99.81 | 150 | 24.29 | 71.39 – 128.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead79.56· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.1bn | 10.3bn | 6.2bn | 7.7bn – 8.5bn |
| 2028 | 9bn | 12.8bn | 5.8bn | 8.1bn – 9.9bn |
| 2030 | 10bn | 14.8bn | 5.8bn | 8.6bn – 11.3bn |
| 2035 | 12.3bn | 19.1bn | 6.3bn | 9.5bn – 15bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±50.1mtypical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.62 | 12 | -10 | -3.9 – 12 |
| 2028 | 10.31 | 12 | -10 | -9.92 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.01· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.62typical miss · 1 realized · 662% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.6k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.2k | 19.6k | 11.4k | 14.4k – 16k |
| 2028 | 16.8k | 24.4k | 10.2k | 15k – 18.5k |
| 2030 | 18.3k | 28.1k | 9.8k | 15.7k – 20.9k |
| 2035 | 22.2k | 36.1k | 10.1k | 17k – 27.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.3ktypical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed130.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 138.03 | 189.46 | 78.69 | 127.91 – 148.15 |
| 2028 | 155.29 | 244.37 | 52.52 | 134.14 – 176.45 |
| 2030 | 172.55 | 287.55 | 39.87 | 141.06 – 204.05 |
| 2035 | 215.71 | 300 | 28.07 | 156.18 – 275.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead135.18· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.33typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78.26(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 78.96 | 90.75 | 67.16 | 75.89 – 82.02 |
| 2027 | 80.35 | 100.78 | 59.92 | 73.36 – 87.33 |
| 2029 | 81.74 | 108.11 | 55.36 | 71.16 – 92.31 |
| 2034 | 85.22 | 122.52 | 47.91 | 65.87 – 104.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead79.05· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.14 | 8.07 | 2.01 | 4.41 – 5.87 |
| 2028 | 8.78 | 13.84 | 3.35 | 7.23 – 10.32 |
| 2030 | 12.41 | 18.94 | 5.41 | 9.97 – 14.85 |
| 2035 | 21.49 | 30.73 | 11.59 | 16 – 26.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.14typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.84(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 35.33 | 48.46 | 23.96 | 32.89 – 37.77 |
| 2027 | 35.85 | 58.59 | 16.15 | 30.89 – 40.82 |
| 2029 | 36.37 | 65.72 | 10.94 | 29.27 – 43.48 |
| 2034 | 37.68 | 70 | 1.7 | 25.72 – 49.63 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead34.15· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed529.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 528.5k | 553.5k | 505.3k | 512.1k – 544.9k |
| 2028 | 530.6k | 555.7k | 507.3k | 491.3k – 569.8k |
| 2030 | 532.7k | 557.8k | 509.3k | 472.2k – 593.1k |
| 2035 | 537.8k | 572.7k | 505.4k | 426.3k – 649.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead417.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±110.5ktypical miss · 1 realized · 26% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.98(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.74 | 15 | -10 | -2.21 – 13.68 |
| 2028 | 7.61 | 15 | -10 | -6.35 – 15 |
| 2030 | 9.49 | 15 | -10 | -8.83 – 15 |
| 2035 | 14.19 | 15 | -10 | -10 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.55typical miss · 1 realized · 112% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed984.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 644.8m | 935.6m – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.1bn | 1.7bn | 447.7m | 927.7m – 1.2bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 2bn | 333.4m | 928.1m – 1.4bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.5bn | 168.3m | 928.6m – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead988.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.93(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.96 | 4.03 | 0 | 1.61 – 2.3 |
| 2028 | 1.98 | 5.57 | 0 | 1.34 – 2.63 |
| 2030 | 1.99 | 6.63 | 0 | 1.13 – 2.86 |
| 2035 | 2 | 8.56 | 0 | 0.68 – 3.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.96· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.41typical miss · 1 realized · 21% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed984.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1bn | 1.4bn | 644.8m | 935.6m – 1.1bn |
| 2028 | 1.1bn | 1.7bn | 447.7m | 927.7m – 1.2bn |
| 2030 | 1.1bn | 2bn | 333.4m | 928.1m – 1.4bn |
| 2035 | 1.3bn | 2.5bn | 168.3m | 928.6m – 1.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead988.8m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.31 | 5.05 | 3.57 | 4.13 – 4.5 |
| 2028 | 3.91 | 5.19 | 2.63 | 3.53 – 4.3 |
| 2030 | 3.51 | 5.16 | 1.86 | 2.98 – 4.04 |
| 2035 | 2.51 | 4.84 | 0.17 | 1.75 – 3.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.41· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MDV · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 147.24 | 2025 (7.7bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 21.7904 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.837 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.8bn | 2025 (129.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -121234255.5378 + 53676037.5259·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.594 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -26.88 | 2025 (7.7bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -2.8015 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MDV?indicator= · API docs
