Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Mexico: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Mexico's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.788 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 60.69 | 2024 (1.8T) |
Latest observed-0.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.52 | 2.66 | -3.69 | -1.18 – 0.15 |
| 2028 | -0.55 | 4.94 | -6.05 | -1.72 – 0.62 |
| 2030 | -0.59 | 6.51 | -7.69 | -2.12 – 0.94 |
| 2035 | -0.68 | 9.36 | -10.71 | -2.89 – 1.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.4· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.22typical miss · 1 realized · 73% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.54 | 45.74 | 34.17 | 38.02 – 41.06 |
| 2028 | 39.33 | 50.06 | 30.02 | 35.91 – 42.75 |
| 2030 | 39.11 | 52.97 | 27.1 | 34.01 – 44.22 |
| 2035 | 38.58 | 58.18 | 21.6 | 29.61 – 47.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead39.58· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.01typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.8T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9T | 2.2T | 1.6T | 1.9T – 2T |
| 2028 | 2.1T | 2.7T | 1.7T | 2T – 2.3T |
| 2030 | 2.4T | 3.1T | 1.8T | 2.1T – 2.6T |
| 2035 | 2.9T | 3.9T | 2T | 2.3T – 3.5T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.3T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±254.1bntypical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.56(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.13 | 12 | -10 | -2.11 – 2.36 |
| 2028 | -0.8 | 12 | -10 | -4.7 – 3.09 |
| 2030 | -1.73 | 12 | -10 | -6.83 – 3.37 |
| 2035 | -4.05 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 3.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.07· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.37typical miss · 1 realized · 92% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.5k | 17k | 12.4k | 14k – 15k |
| 2028 | 16k | 20.2k | 12.3k | 14.7k – 17.3k |
| 2030 | 17.5k | 23k | 12.7k | 15.4k – 19.5k |
| 2035 | 21.2k | 29k | 14.4k | 16.8k – 25.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.38 | 68.59 | 55.21 | 60.43 – 64.33 |
| 2028 | 63.74 | 74.5 | 51.33 | 59.02 – 68.46 |
| 2030 | 65.1 | 78.99 | 49.07 | 57.71 – 72.49 |
| 2035 | 68.5 | 88.14 | 45.83 | 54.29 – 82.71 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead60.78· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.28typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed40.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.2 | 48.14 | 32.25 | 38.34 – 42.06 |
| 2028 | 40.03 | 53.8 | 26.27 | 36 – 44.06 |
| 2030 | 39.87 | 57.64 | 22.1 | 33.96 – 45.78 |
| 2035 | 39.46 | 64.59 | 14.32 | 29.3 – 49.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.17· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.43typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.56 | 7.32 | -0.47 | 2.67 – 4.45 |
| 2028 | 2.28 | 8.8 | -4.7 | 0.73 – 3.83 |
| 2030 | 1 | 9.42 | -5 | -0.94 – 2.95 |
| 2035 | -2.19 | 9.71 | -5 | -5 – 0.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.39· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.24typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.41(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.51 | 24.99 | 20.36 | 21.79 – 23.22 |
| 2028 | 22.73 | 27.03 | 19.01 | 21.03 – 24.44 |
| 2030 | 22.96 | 28.51 | 18.15 | 20.33 – 25.59 |
| 2035 | 23.52 | 31.37 | 16.72 | 18.64 – 28.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.04· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.22typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed131.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 131.7m | 137.9m | 125.9m | 127.6m – 135.7m |
| 2028 | 132.8m | 139.1m | 127m | 123m – 142.7m |
| 2030 | 134m | 140.4m | 128.2m | 118.8m – 149.3m |
| 2035 | 137m | 143.5m | 131m | 108.6m – 165.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead135.5m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.8mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.78(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.74 | 1.51 | -2.43 | -1.04 – -0.44 |
| 2028 | -0.65 | 3.25 | -3.57 | -1.18 – -0.11 |
| 2030 | -0.56 | 4.47 | -4.33 | -1.27 – 0.15 |
| 2035 | -0.33 | 6.79 | -5.66 | -1.38 – 0.72 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.64· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.24typical miss · 1 realized · 159% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed239.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 249.5bn | 264.5bn | 234.6bn | 241.8bn – 257.3bn |
| 2028 | 274.7bn | 300.6bn | 248.8bn | 254.4bn – 295bn |
| 2030 | 299.8bn | 333.3bn | 266.4bn | 265.8bn – 333.9bn |
| 2035 | 362.7bn | 410bn | 315.4bn | 287.5bn – 437.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead248.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.73(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.8 | 4.97 | 2.63 | 3.56 – 4.04 |
| 2028 | 3.88 | 5.91 | 1.85 | 3.38 – 4.38 |
| 2030 | 3.92 | 6.54 | 1.3 | 3.2 – 4.64 |
| 2035 | 3.95 | 7.66 | 0.24 | 2.75 – 5.15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.69· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed256.2bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 268.3bn | 286.2bn | 250.4bn | 260bn – 276.6bn |
| 2028 | 298.3bn | 329.3bn | 267.3bn | 276.2bn – 320.4bn |
| 2030 | 328.3bn | 368.3bn | 288.3bn | 291bn – 365.5bn |
| 2035 | 403.2bn | 459.8bn | 346.6bn | 319.6bn – 486.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead267bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.29 | 2.83 | 1.75 | 2.17 – 2.41 |
| 2028 | 1.53 | 2.47 | 0.59 | 1.31 – 1.75 |
| 2030 | 0.77 | 1.98 | 0 | 0.5 – 1.03 |
| 2035 | 0 | 1.72 | 0 | 0 – 0.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.86· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.51typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MEX · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 60.73 | 2025 (1.8T) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 27.1745 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.72 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.4T | 2023 (52.7) |
| 2027 | 1.7T | 2024 (59) |
| 2028 | 1.7T | 2025 (61.7) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -298313160526.0556 + 33039032258.1561·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MEX?indicator= · API docs
