Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Marshall Islands: forward projections across 10 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Marshall Islands's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.666 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.38 | 2023 (264m) |
Latest observed10.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 30 | 30 | -14.62 | 20.41 – 30 |
| 2028 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 12.79 – 30 |
| 2030 | 30 | 30 | -30 | 7.24 – 30 |
| 2035 | 30 | 30 | -30 | -3.59 – 30 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±19.3typical miss · 1 realized · 180% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.04(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.77 | 45.78 | 27.09 | 33.76 – 37.77 |
| 2028 | 35.22 | 52.56 | 20.19 | 31.06 – 39.39 |
| 2030 | 34.68 | 57.07 | 15.28 | 28.71 – 40.65 |
| 2035 | 33.32 | 64.98 | 5.88 | 23.47 – 43.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±6.43typical miss · 1 realized · 18% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed308m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 319.7m | 337.8m | 304m | 309.8m – 329.6m |
| 2028 | 348.9m | 380.3m | 321.7m | 323.1m – 374.7m |
| 2030 | 378.1m | 418.6m | 343m | 335.2m – 421m |
| 2035 | 451.1m | 508.5m | 401.5m | 357.6m – 544.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead352.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±18.3mtypical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.78 | 12 | -4.36 | 2.95 – 6.62 |
| 2028 | 10.06 | 12 | -5.77 | 6.54 – 12 |
| 2030 | 12 | 12 | -8.44 | 7.11 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 4.52 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.31· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.78typical miss · 1 realized · 59% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 9k | 9.5k | 8.5k | 8.7k – 9.2k |
| 2028 | 10.2k | 11.1k | 9.4k | 9.4k – 10.9k |
| 2030 | 11.4k | 12.5k | 10.3k | 10.1k – 12.7k |
| 2035 | 14.4k | 16k | 12.9k | 11.4k – 17.4k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.6k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±123.2typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed13.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.83 | 9.79 | 3.42 | 6.27 – 7.4 |
| 2028 | 2.89 | 8.02 | 0 | 1.97 – 3.82 |
| 2030 | 0 | 6.61 | 0 | 0 – 1.1 |
| 2035 | 0 | 9.35 | 0 | 0 – 1.6 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12.42· skill-weighted across models
Track record±7.07typical miss · 1 realized · 51% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed79.87(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 77.49 | 117.46 | 37.53 | 70.14 – 84.85 |
| 2028 | 72.74 | 141.96 | 3.52 | 58.65 – 86.83 |
| 2030 | 67.99 | 150 | 0 | 48.87 – 87.11 |
| 2035 | 56.1 | 150 | 0 | 27.78 – 84.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead78.18· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.03typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.6(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.26 | 7.9 | -1.72 | 2.18 – 4.34 |
| 2028 | 0.32 | 8.36 | -5 | -1.51 – 2.15 |
| 2030 | -2.62 | 7.76 | -5 | -5 – -0.11 |
| 2035 | -5 | 9.68 | -5 | -5 – -0.95 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.34typical miss · 1 realized · 62% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.86(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 22.81 | 56.21 | 0 | 17.68 – 27.95 |
| 2027 | 22.44 | 70 | 0 | 13.1 – 31.78 |
| 2029 | 22.06 | 70 | 0 | 9.63 – 34.49 |
| 2034 | 21.12 | 70 | 0 | 2.65 – 39.58 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.57· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed36.3k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 36.6k | 38.4k | 35k | 35.5k – 37.8k |
| 2028 | 35.2k | 36.9k | 33.7k | 32.6k – 37.8k |
| 2030 | 33.8k | 35.4k | 32.4k | 30k – 37.7k |
| 2035 | 30.4k | 31.8k | 29k | 24.1k – 36.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±375.53typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MHL · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 27.43 | 2024 (285m) |
| 2028 | 31.87 | 2025 (308m) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -27.549 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.602 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 266.6m | 2025 (33.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 175997475.0085 + 2679741.3764·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.579 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.61 | 2023 (264m) |
| 2027 | 13.75 | 2024 (285m) |
| 2028 | 10.61 | 2025 (308m) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 52.6231 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MHL?indicator= · API docs
