Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Mali: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Mali's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.732 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.96 | 2024 (26.8bn) |
Latest observed-3.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0.4 | 6.51 | -5.71 | -0.86 – 1.66 |
| 2028 | 1 | 11.58 | -9.58 | -1.21 – 3.21 |
| 2030 | 1.6 | 15.25 | -12.05 | -1.31 – 4.51 |
| 2035 | 3.1 | 22.41 | -16.21 | -1.34 – 7.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.8typical miss · 1 realized · 112% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.25 | 26.59 | 18.49 | 21.28 – 23.23 |
| 2028 | 22.61 | 30.13 | 16.09 | 20.45 – 24.77 |
| 2030 | 22.96 | 32.67 | 14.55 | 19.74 – 26.18 |
| 2035 | 23.85 | 37.57 | 11.95 | 18.07 – 29.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.17typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed30.1bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 31.7bn | 34.4bn | 29.3bn | 30.7bn – 32.7bn |
| 2028 | 35.7bn | 40.5bn | 31.6bn | 33bn – 38.3bn |
| 2030 | 39.7bn | 45.8bn | 34.4bn | 35.2bn – 44.2bn |
| 2035 | 49.7bn | 58.4bn | 42.2bn | 39.4bn – 60bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead36.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.2bntypical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.6(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.18 | 9.29 | 3.49 | 5.56 – 6.8 |
| 2028 | 7.58 | 12 | 2.91 | 6.32 – 8.84 |
| 2030 | 8.98 | 12 | 2.96 | 7.1 – 10.86 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | 3.48 | 8.44 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.79· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.68typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.2k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.2k | 1.3k | 1.1k | 1.2k – 1.3k |
| 2028 | 1.3k | 1.5k | 1.2k | 1.2k – 1.4k |
| 2030 | 1.4k | 1.7k | 1.2k | 1.3k – 1.6k |
| 2035 | 1.7k | 2.1k | 1.4k | 1.3k – 2.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.4k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±107.94typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed39.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 42.01 | 46.55 | 36.78 | 40.64 – 43.38 |
| 2028 | 45.43 | 53.29 | 36.37 | 42.04 – 48.82 |
| 2030 | 48.85 | 58.99 | 37.16 | 43.31 – 54.4 |
| 2035 | 57.41 | 71.75 | 40.86 | 45.5 – 69.32 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead40.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.31typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed26.7(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.22 | 31.6 | 20.84 | 24.98 – 27.46 |
| 2028 | 25.27 | 34.58 | 15.96 | 22.63 – 27.91 |
| 2030 | 24.32 | 36.34 | 12.3 | 20.53 – 28.11 |
| 2035 | 21.94 | 38.95 | 4.94 | 15.83 – 28.06 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.67typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.28(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.35 | 12.5 | -5 | 1.27 – 5.43 |
| 2028 | 3.45 | 19.3 | -5 | -0.22 – 7.13 |
| 2030 | 3.55 | 24.01 | -5 | -1.26 – 8.37 |
| 2035 | 3.81 | 32.73 | -5 | -3.21 – 10.83 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.35typical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed21.67(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 21.62 | 24.43 | 19.19 | 20.88 – 22.37 |
| 2028 | 21.47 | 26.34 | 17.25 | 19.74 – 23.19 |
| 2030 | 21.31 | 27.6 | 15.87 | 18.71 – 23.92 |
| 2035 | 20.93 | 29.81 | 13.22 | 16.31 – 25.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead21.53· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.45typical miss · 1 realized · 7% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25m | 26.2m | 23.9m | 24.2m – 25.8m |
| 2028 | 25.8m | 27m | 24.7m | 23.9m – 27.7m |
| 2030 | 26.6m | 27.9m | 25.4m | 23.6m – 29.6m |
| 2035 | 28.6m | 29.9m | 27.3m | 22.7m – 34.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead26.6m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±986ktypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.03(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.66 | 9.97 | -2.82 | 1.71 – 3.62 |
| 2028 | 4.12 | 15 | -5.38 | 2.34 – 5.9 |
| 2030 | 5.57 | 15 | -6.69 | 3.08 – 8.06 |
| 2035 | 9.21 | 15 | -8.13 | 4.84 – 13.57 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.2typical miss · 1 realized · 10% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.83(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.65 | 4.19 | 1.12 | 2.38 – 2.93 |
| 2028 | 2.3 | 4.96 | 0 | 1.78 – 2.82 |
| 2030 | 1.95 | 5.39 | 0 | 1.27 – 2.63 |
| 2035 | 1.07 | 5.93 | 0 | 0.15 – 1.98 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.65· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MLI · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 3.21 | 2025 (30.1bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 0.9747 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.679 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.7bn | 2025 (2.83) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -938050151.7849 + 7643031214.4155·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MLI?indicator= · API docs
