Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Malta: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Malta's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.84 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 39.77 | 2025 (2.9) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed6.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.08 | 20.07 | -5.91 | 4.32 – 9.84 |
| 2028 | 4.04 | 26.54 | -18.46 | -0.75 – 8.82 |
| 2030 | 1 | 30 | -28.05 | -5.01 – 7.01 |
| 2035 | -6.6 | 30 | -30 | -16.04 – 2.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.56· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.58typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed119.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 118.15 | 132.32 | 105.86 | 114.23 – 122.06 |
| 2028 | 116.22 | 140.76 | 94.95 | 107.13 – 125.3 |
| 2030 | 114.29 | 145.98 | 86.83 | 100.62 – 127.96 |
| 2035 | 109.47 | 150 | 70.63 | 85.55 – 133.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead118.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.69typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 29.7bn | 33.2bn | 26.7bn | 28.8bn – 30.7bn |
| 2028 | 34.6bn | 40.6bn | 29.3bn | 32bn – 37.1bn |
| 2030 | 39.4bn | 47.2bn | 32.6bn | 34.9bn – 43.9bn |
| 2035 | 51.5bn | 62.5bn | 41.9bn | 40.8bn – 62.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±765.3mtypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.24 | 12 | -10 | -1.21 – 5.69 |
| 2028 | -1.38 | 12 | -10 | -7.37 – 4.6 |
| 2030 | -5 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 3.04 |
| 2035 | -10 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 2.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.43· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.96typical miss · 1 realized · 47% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 50.5k | 57.1k | 44.8k | 48.9k – 52.1k |
| 2028 | 57k | 68.4k | 47.1k | 52.8k – 61.2k |
| 2030 | 63.5k | 78.1k | 50.7k | 56.2k – 70.7k |
| 2035 | 79.6k | 100.4k | 61.6k | 63.1k – 96.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.6ktypical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.19(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.58 | 5.71 | 1.3 | 3 – 4.16 |
| 2029 | 2.86 | 6.55 | 0 | 1.81 – 3.9 |
| 2031 | 2.5 | 7.26 | 0 | 1.13 – 3.87 |
| 2036 | 2.22 | 8.95 | 0 | 0.2 – 4.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.31· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed46.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 46.21 | 54.22 | 36.97 | 44.24 – 48.18 |
| 2028 | 46.23 | 60.1 | 30.23 | 41.88 – 50.59 |
| 2030 | 46.26 | 64.16 | 25.6 | 39.8 – 52.71 |
| 2035 | 46.32 | 71.63 | 17.1 | 35.01 – 57.62 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead46.6· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.19typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 98.73 | 116.9 | 80.57 | 94.37 – 103.09 |
| 2028 | 96.39 | 127.85 | 64.92 | 86.94 – 105.83 |
| 2030 | 94.04 | 134.66 | 53.42 | 80.3 – 107.78 |
| 2035 | 88.18 | 145.63 | 30.73 | 65.28 – 111.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead101.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.02typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.95 | 8.34 | -2.83 | 1.7 – 4.19 |
| 2028 | 3.95 | 13.29 | -5 | 1.68 – 6.21 |
| 2030 | 4.94 | 17.01 | -5 | 1.87 – 8.01 |
| 2035 | 7.44 | 24.5 | -5 | 2.47 – 12.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.32· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.55typical miss · 1 realized · 23% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.4(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.41 | 7 | -2.51 | 1.36 – 3.47 |
| 2029 | 2.42 | 10.37 | -5 | 0.54 – 4.3 |
| 2031 | 2.43 | 12.69 | -5 | -0.04 – 4.9 |
| 2036 | 2.43 | 16.95 | -5 | -1.18 – 6.04 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.26· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.65 | 22.13 | 11.91 | 15.61 – 17.7 |
| 2028 | 14.06 | 23.55 | 5.83 | 12.03 – 16.09 |
| 2030 | 11.46 | 23.71 | 0.84 | 8.79 – 14.13 |
| 2035 | 4.96 | 22.29 | 0 | 1.69 – 8.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.07typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 574.8k | 601.9k | 549.6k | 557k – 592.6k |
| 2028 | 586.7k | 614.4k | 561k | 543.3k – 630.1k |
| 2030 | 598.7k | 626.9k | 572.4k | 530.7k – 666.6k |
| 2035 | 628.5k | 660.3k | 599k | 498.1k – 758.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead597.1k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±10.2ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.93 | 15 | -10 | 0.25 – 5.62 |
| 2028 | 5.02 | 15 | -10 | 0.2 – 9.83 |
| 2030 | 7.1 | 15 | -10 | 0.63 – 13.57 |
| 2035 | 12.31 | 15 | -10 | 1.99 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.21typical miss · 1 realized · 63% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.6bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.9bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.4bn | 3.1bn | 1.8bn | 1.9bn – 2.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.25(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 0.05 | 0.2 – 0.3 |
| 2027 | 0.26 | 0.46 | 0.05 | 0.18 – 0.34 |
| 2029 | 0.26 | 0.52 | 0 | 0.14 – 0.38 |
| 2034 | 0.26 | 0.63 | 0 | 0.04 – 0.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.25· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.2bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2030 | 2.1bn | 2.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2035 | 2.6bn | 3.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 3.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.56 | 3.3 | 1.82 | 2.41 – 2.71 |
| 2028 | 1.89 | 3.17 | 0.61 | 1.6 – 2.18 |
| 2030 | 1.22 | 2.87 | 0 | 0.87 – 1.57 |
| 2035 | 0 | 2.34 | 0 | 0 – 0.52 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.92· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.44typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MLT · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.783 over 30 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.23 | 2025 (46.2) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ -0.9285 + 0.1117·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.734 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 14.43 | 2024 (3.1) |
| 2027 | 15.39 | 2025 (2.9) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 29.0066 + -4.701·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.682 over 42 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16bn | 2025 (2.9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 22195205350.9256 + -2133198606.4411·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MLT?indicator= · API docs
