Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Malta: forward projections across 17 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Malta's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.836 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 41.71 | 2026 (3) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ . Correlation, not causation.
Latest observed5.8(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.21 | 16.34 | -7.92 | 1.66 – 6.75 |
| 2029 | 1.03 | 22.04 | -19.99 | -3.31 – 5.36 |
| 2031 | -2.16 | 24.97 | -29.29 | -7.87 – 3.55 |
| 2036 | -10.12 | 28.25 | -30 | -19.57 – -0.67 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.85· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed119.11(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 118.15 | 132.32 | 105.86 | 114.23 – 122.06 |
| 2028 | 116.22 | 140.76 | 94.95 | 107.13 – 125.3 |
| 2030 | 114.29 | 145.98 | 86.83 | 100.62 – 127.96 |
| 2035 | 109.47 | 150 | 70.63 | 85.55 – 133.39 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead118.15· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.69typical miss · 1 realized · 1% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed27.8bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 32.7bn | 36bn | 29.8bn | 31.7bn – 33.7bn |
| 2029 | 37.6bn | 43.4bn | 32.6bn | 34.8bn – 40.4bn |
| 2031 | 42.5bn | 50bn | 36bn | 37.7bn – 47.3bn |
| 2036 | 54.8bn | 65.4bn | 45.7bn | 43.5bn – 66.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead32.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.96(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.57 | 12 | -8.55 | 0.39 – 4.75 |
| 2029 | -0.05 | 12 | -10 | -3.8 – 3.7 |
| 2031 | -2.66 | 12 | -10 | -7.65 – 2.33 |
| 2036 | -9.19 | 12 | -10 | -10 – -0.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.83· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.9k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 56.4k | 62.9k | 50.8k | 54.7k – 58.2k |
| 2029 | 63.8k | 74.9k | 54.1k | 59.1k – 68.5k |
| 2031 | 71.1k | 85.5k | 58.7k | 63.1k – 79.2k |
| 2036 | 89.5k | 109.9k | 71.9k | 71k – 108.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead56.5k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.88(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.35 | 5.49 | 1.07 | 2.78 – 3.93 |
| 2029 | 2.73 | 6.42 | 0 | 1.69 – 3.77 |
| 2031 | 2.42 | 7.19 | 0 | 1.06 – 3.79 |
| 2036 | 2.18 | 8.92 | 0 | 0.17 – 4.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.86· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed47.3(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 47.8 | 54.56 | 40 | 45.99 – 49.6 |
| 2029 | 48.79 | 60.5 | 35.28 | 44.65 – 52.94 |
| 2031 | 49.79 | 64.91 | 32.35 | 43.48 – 56.1 |
| 2036 | 52.28 | 73.66 | 27.61 | 40.63 – 63.94 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead47.52· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed99.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 98.73 | 116.9 | 80.57 | 94.37 – 103.09 |
| 2028 | 96.39 | 127.85 | 64.92 | 86.94 – 105.83 |
| 2030 | 94.04 | 134.66 | 53.42 | 80.3 – 107.78 |
| 2035 | 88.18 | 145.63 | 30.73 | 65.28 – 111.08 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead101.3· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.02typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.36(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.58 | 7.95 | -3.17 | 1.35 – 3.81 |
| 2029 | 2.77 | 12.07 | -5 | 0.58 – 4.97 |
| 2031 | 2.96 | 14.97 | -5 | 0.06 – 5.86 |
| 2036 | 3.44 | 20.42 | -5 | -0.87 – 7.75 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.44· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1(2026)· ECB Data Portal API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.22 | 6.82 | -2.71 | 1.16 – 3.28 |
| 2029 | 2.34 | 10.3 | -5 | 0.46 – 4.21 |
| 2031 | 2.38 | 12.66 | -5 | -0.09 – 4.85 |
| 2036 | 2.4 | 16.95 | -5 | -1.21 – 6.01 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed17.79(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 16.65 | 22.13 | 11.91 | 15.61 – 17.7 |
| 2028 | 14.06 | 23.55 | 5.83 | 12.03 – 16.09 |
| 2030 | 11.46 | 23.71 | 0.84 | 8.79 – 14.13 |
| 2035 | 4.96 | 22.29 | 0 | 1.69 – 8.23 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead17.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.07typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed579.7k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 567.4k | 594.2k | 542.5k | 549.8k – 585k |
| 2029 | 560.1k | 587.6k | 534.5k | 518.6k – 601.5k |
| 2031 | 552.7k | 588.2k | 519.7k | 489.9k – 615.4k |
| 2036 | 534.2k | 584.5k | 487.6k | 423.4k – 645.1k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead584.4k· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.94(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.93 | 15 | -10 | 0.25 – 5.62 |
| 2028 | 5.02 | 15 | -10 | 0.2 – 9.83 |
| 2030 | 7.1 | 15 | -10 | 0.63 – 13.57 |
| 2035 | 12.31 | 15 | -10 | 1.99 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.67· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.21typical miss · 1 realized · 63% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.5bn – 1.6bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.1bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.9bn |
| 2030 | 2bn | 2.4bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2.2bn |
| 2035 | 2.4bn | 3.1bn | 1.8bn | 1.9bn – 2.9bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed0.25(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.25 | 0.45 | 0.05 | 0.2 – 0.3 |
| 2027 | 0.26 | 0.46 | 0.05 | 0.18 – 0.34 |
| 2029 | 0.26 | 0.52 | 0 | 0.14 – 0.38 |
| 2034 | 0.26 | 0.63 | 0 | 0.04 – 0.48 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.25· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.6bn | 1.8bn | 1.4bn | 1.6bn – 1.7bn |
| 2028 | 1.8bn | 2.2bn | 1.5bn | 1.7bn – 2bn |
| 2030 | 2.1bn | 2.5bn | 1.6bn | 1.8bn – 2.3bn |
| 2035 | 2.6bn | 3.2bn | 2bn | 2.1bn – 3.1bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.9(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.83 | 3.19 | 2.48 | 2.73 – 2.93 |
| 2029 | 2.5 | 3.11 | 1.88 | 2.28 – 2.71 |
| 2031 | 2.16 | 2.95 | 1.37 | 1.87 – 2.45 |
| 2036 | 1.32 | 2.44 | 0.2 | 0.94 – 1.7 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.92· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MLT · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.793 over 31 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.26 | 2026 (47.3) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ -1.2655 + 0.1168·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.699 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 16.9bn | 2026 (3) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 24034536827.8595 + -2369812053.2916·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.697 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 13.33 | 2025 (2.9) |
| 2028 | 12.9 | 2026 (3) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ 25.2282 + -4.1085·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MLT?indicator= · API docs
