Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Myanmar: forward projections across 12 macro indicators, horizons 2020, 2022, 2024, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2033, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Myanmar's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.908 over 26 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 64.2bn | 2024 (50.6) |
Latest observed-1.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -0.78 | 4.67 | -6.22 | -1.9 – 0.35 |
| 2029 | -0.13 | 9.3 | -9.56 | -2.1 – 1.84 |
| 2031 | 0.52 | 12.7 | -11.66 | -2.05 – 3.08 |
| 2036 | 2.14 | 19.36 | -15.08 | -1.72 – 5.99 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-0.9· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed81.7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 87.2bn | 101.4bn | 75bn | 84.2bn – 90.3bn |
| 2029 | 95.3bn | 119.8bn | 74bn | 87.8bn – 102.8bn |
| 2031 | 103.3bn | 134.9bn | 75.9bn | 91.3bn – 115.3bn |
| 2036 | 123.4bn | 168.1bn | 84.6bn | 97.8bn – 149bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead85.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.01(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.59 | 12 | -8.33 | 2.03 – 7.15 |
| 2029 | 8.25 | 12 | -10 | 3.55 – 12 |
| 2031 | 11.91 | 12 | -10 | 5.4 – 12 |
| 2036 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.22 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.53· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 1.6k | 1.8k | 1.3k | 1.5k – 1.6k |
| 2029 | 1.7k | 2.2k | 1.3k | 1.6k – 1.8k |
| 2031 | 1.8k | 2.4k | 1.3k | 1.6k – 2k |
| 2036 | 2.1k | 3k | 1.4k | 1.7k – 2.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.6k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed51.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 53.38 | 65.6 | 39.27 | 50.64 – 56.11 |
| 2029 | 56.33 | 77.51 | 31.91 | 50.37 – 62.3 |
| 2031 | 59.29 | 86.62 | 27.75 | 50.34 – 68.24 |
| 2036 | 66.68 | 105.34 | 22.08 | 50.07 – 83.3 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead52.69· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.83(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 18.38 | 35.68 | -0.15 | 14.26 – 22.51 |
| 2029 | 14.18 | 44.14 | -5 | 6.86 – 21.51 |
| 2031 | 9.98 | 48.66 | -5 | 0.61 – 19.36 |
| 2036 | -0.52 | 50 | -5 | -5 – 11.77 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.51· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed54.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 55.1m | 57.7m | 52.7m | 53.4m – 56.8m |
| 2029 | 55.5m | 58.1m | 53m | 51.4m – 59.6m |
| 2031 | 55.8m | 58.5m | 53.4m | 49.5m – 62.2m |
| 2036 | 56.7m | 59.4m | 54.3m | 45m – 68.5m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead55.5m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-2.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -3.66 | 12.76 | -10 | -5.77 – -1.55 |
| 2028 | -5.86 | 15 | -10 | -9.7 – -2.02 |
| 2030 | -8.06 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -2.83 |
| 2035 | -10 | 15 | -10 | -10 – -1.91 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-2.38· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.51typical miss · 1 realized · 19% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.9bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9.2bn | 10.9bn | 7.6bn | 8.8bn – 9.6bn |
| 2026 | 10.2bn | 13.1bn | 7.4bn | 9.3bn – 11.2bn |
| 2028 | 11.2bn | 14.9bn | 7.5bn | 9.8bn – 12.7bn |
| 2033 | 13.7bn | 19bn | 8.5bn | 10.7bn – 16.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.29(2019)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 3.9 | 7.01 | 0.79 | 3.36 – 4.44 |
| 2022 | 4.62 | 10.01 | 0 | 3.58 – 5.67 |
| 2024 | 4.98 | 11.93 | 0 | 3.51 – 6.44 |
| 2029 | 5.26 | 15.09 | 0 | 2.91 – 7.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.84· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.3bn(2023)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | 9.7bn | 11.4bn | 8bn | 9.3bn – 10.1bn |
| 2026 | 10.8bn | 13.7bn | 7.9bn | 9.8bn – 11.7bn |
| 2028 | 11.8bn | 15.6bn | 8.1bn | 10.3bn – 13.3bn |
| 2033 | 14.4bn | 19.7bn | 9.1bn | 11.3bn – 17.5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9.7bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.05(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.14 | 5.83 | 0.46 | 2.68 – 3.61 |
| 2028 | 3.34 | 7.99 | 0 | 2.47 – 4.21 |
| 2030 | 3.53 | 9.54 | 0 | 2.33 – 4.74 |
| 2035 | 4.02 | 12.51 | 0 | 2.08 – 5.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.12· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MMR · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 63.7bn | 2025 (51.9) |
| 2029 | 63.7bn | 2026 (51.9) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 83365066542.6334 + -379569445.6072·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.791 over 29 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 14.42 | 2026 (83.8bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 157.8755 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.777 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.23 | 2025 (-2.01) |
| 2027 | 1.61 | 2026 (3) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 1.9773 + -0.1232·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 2 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.64 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.2 | 2025 (51.9) |
| 2028 | 4.2 | 2026 (51.9) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 0.6482 + 0.0684·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.551 over 28 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 11.12 | 2026 (51.9) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 4.758 + 0.1226·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MMR?indicator= · API docs
