Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan (excluding high income): forward projections across 11 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan & Pakistan (excluding high income)'s strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.505 over 56 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.27 | 2024 |
Latest observed25.21(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 25.71 | 32.79 | 19.58 | 24.29 – 27.14 |
| 2028 | 26.72 | 38.97 | 16.1 | 23.68 – 29.75 |
| 2030 | 27.72 | 43.54 | 14.01 | 23.24 – 32.2 |
| 2035 | 30.23 | 52.6 | 10.84 | 22.19 – 38.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.71· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.12typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.1T(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.1T | 2.5T | 1.9T | 2.1T – 2.2T |
| 2028 | 2.2T | 2.8T | 1.7T | 2T – 2.4T |
| 2030 | 2.2T | 3T | 1.6T | 2T – 2.5T |
| 2035 | 2.4T | 3.4T | 1.5T | 1.9T – 2.9T |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2T· skill-weighted across models
Track record±121.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.9 | 8.3 | -3.66 | 0.8 – 2.99 |
| 2028 | 1.67 | 12 | -7.95 | -0.26 – 3.6 |
| 2030 | 1.45 | 12 | -10 | -1.05 – 3.95 |
| 2035 | 0.89 | 12 | -10 | -2.65 – 4.43 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.2· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.21typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.8k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.8k | 3.3k | 2.4k | 2.7k – 2.9k |
| 2028 | 2.8k | 3.6k | 2.1k | 2.6k – 3k |
| 2030 | 2.8k | 3.8k | 1.9k | 2.4k – 3.1k |
| 2035 | 2.7k | 4.1k | 1.4k | 2.1k – 3.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.8k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±172.64typical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed34.95(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.62 | 39.76 | 31.47 | 34.41 – 36.82 |
| 2028 | 36.94 | 44.12 | 29.77 | 34.07 – 39.81 |
| 2030 | 38.27 | 47.53 | 29 | 33.79 – 42.75 |
| 2035 | 41.58 | 54.69 | 28.48 | 32.92 – 50.24 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead35.5· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.41typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed2.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 2.36 | 7.19 | -2.81 | 1.26 – 3.47 |
| 2028 | 0.47 | 8.84 | -5 | -1.43 – 2.37 |
| 2030 | -1.42 | 9.38 | -5 | -3.93 – 1.09 |
| 2035 | -5 | 10.27 | -5 | -5 – -0.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.27· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed20.57(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 20.7 | 22.36 | 19.25 | 20.05 – 21.34 |
| 2028 | 20.98 | 23.87 | 18.48 | 19.43 – 22.53 |
| 2030 | 21.26 | 24.99 | 18.03 | 18.85 – 23.68 |
| 2035 | 21.97 | 27.24 | 17.4 | 17.41 – 26.53 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead20.52· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.01typical miss · 1 realized · 0% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed753.9m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 750.5m | 786m | 717.6m | 727.3m – 773.8m |
| 2028 | 764m | 800.1m | 730.5m | 707.5m – 820.5m |
| 2030 | 777.4m | 814.1m | 743.3m | 689.1m – 865.7m |
| 2035 | 811m | 849.3m | 775.4m | 642.8m – 979.2m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead765m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±15.5mtypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.31(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.64 | 5.85 | 1.98 | 3.3 – 3.97 |
| 2028 | 4.6 | 8.43 | 1.73 | 3.9 – 5.3 |
| 2030 | 5.57 | 10.51 | 1.86 | 4.5 – 6.63 |
| 2035 | 7.97 | 14.96 | 2.74 | 5.83 – 10.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.68· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.26typical miss · 1 realized · 38% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed9.99(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 12.73 | 21.35 | 4.11 | 11.2 – 14.25 |
| 2027 | 15.99 | 30.92 | 1.06 | 12.93 – 19.04 |
| 2029 | 17.58 | 36 | 0 | 13.23 – 21.94 |
| 2034 | 18.86 | 36 | 0 | 11.67 – 26.05 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.29· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.69(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 8.44 | 9.05 | 7.84 | 8.18 – 8.71 |
| 2028 | 7.95 | 9 | 6.9 | 7.36 – 8.53 |
| 2030 | 7.45 | 8.8 | 6.09 | 6.6 – 8.29 |
| 2035 | 6.2 | 8.12 | 4.29 | 4.92 – 7.49 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.73· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MNA · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 3.44 | 2025 (2.1T) |
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 8.902 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MNA?indicator= · API docs
