Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Mongolia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2034, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Mongolia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.652 over 36 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 21.88 | 2026 (5.3) |
Latest observed-7.9(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -7.21 | 9.2 | -23.63 | -10.68 – -3.75 |
| 2029 | -5.84 | 22.6 | -30 | -11.92 – 0.25 |
| 2031 | -4.46 | 30 | -30 | -12.31 – 3.39 |
| 2036 | -1.02 | 30 | -30 | -11.78 – 9.74 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-7.79· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.2 | 81.85 | 60.11 | 67.41 – 72.99 |
| 2028 | 74.47 | 94.64 | 56.98 | 68.01 – 80.92 |
| 2030 | 78.73 | 104.78 | 56.16 | 68.71 – 88.75 |
| 2035 | 89.39 | 126.23 | 57.47 | 69.83 – 108.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead69.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.74typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 30.4bn | 33.3bn | 27.9bn | 29.4bn – 31.3bn |
| 2029 | 35.3bn | 40.3bn | 31bn | 32.7bn – 37.9bn |
| 2031 | 40.2bn | 46.7bn | 34.6bn | 35.6bn – 44.8bn |
| 2036 | 52.5bn | 61.6bn | 44.6bn | 41.6bn – 63.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead30.3bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.58 | 10.3 | 1.5 | 4.71 – 6.46 |
| 2029 | 6.16 | 12 | -0.92 | 4.5 – 7.82 |
| 2031 | 6.74 | 12 | -2.4 | 4.44 – 9.03 |
| 2036 | 8.18 | 12 | -4.74 | 4.38 – 11.97 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.73· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 8.3k | 9.2k | 7.6k | 8.1k – 8.6k |
| 2029 | 9.5k | 11k | 8.3k | 8.8k – 10.2k |
| 2031 | 10.8k | 12.6k | 9.2k | 9.5k – 12k |
| 2036 | 13.8k | 16.4k | 11.5k | 10.9k – 16.7k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead8.2k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.7(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 38.64 | 56.47 | 18.06 | 35.28 – 42 |
| 2029 | 28.52 | 59.41 | 0 | 22.4 – 34.64 |
| 2031 | 18.4 | 58.27 | 0 | 10.79 – 26 |
| 2036 | 0 | 56.39 | 0 | 0 – 8.84 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead45.16· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.98 | 76.44 | 49.52 | 59.91 – 66.05 |
| 2028 | 63.67 | 86.99 | 40.35 | 57.05 – 70.3 |
| 2030 | 64.36 | 94.46 | 34.26 | 54.6 – 74.11 |
| 2035 | 66.08 | 108.65 | 23.51 | 48.99 – 83.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead62.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.36typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 6.83 | 16.28 | -3.29 | 4.63 – 9.04 |
| 2029 | 5.15 | 21.51 | -5 | 1.27 – 9.02 |
| 2031 | 3.46 | 24.58 | -5 | -1.5 – 8.42 |
| 2036 | -0.76 | 29.11 | -5 | -5 – 6.02 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.01· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.82 | 34.18 | 22.3 | 26.46 – 29.17 |
| 2028 | 27.56 | 38.58 | 18.01 | 24.66 – 30.46 |
| 2030 | 27.3 | 41.53 | 14.97 | 23.09 – 31.52 |
| 2035 | 26.66 | 46.78 | 9.22 | 19.52 – 33.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.92typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 3.6m | 3.8m | 3.5m | 3.5m – 3.7m |
| 2029 | 3.7m | 3.8m | 3.5m | 3.4m – 3.9m |
| 2031 | 3.7m | 3.9m | 3.6m | 3.3m – 4.2m |
| 2036 | 3.9m | 4.1m | 3.7m | 3.1m – 4.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.7m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.03 | 15 | -4 | 5.08 – 8.98 |
| 2028 | 10.1 | 15 | -9 | 6.43 – 13.77 |
| 2030 | 13.18 | 15 | -10 | 8.01 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 6.79 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.29typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.5bn | 7.8bn | 5.1bn | 6.2bn – 6.8bn |
| 2028 | 7.9bn | 10.2bn | 5.5bn | 7.1bn – 8.6bn |
| 2030 | 9.3bn | 12.3bn | 6.3bn | 8.1bn – 10.5bn |
| 2035 | 12.7bn | 17bn | 8.5bn | 10.1bn – 15.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.33(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.49 | 5.77 | 1.21 | 3.09 – 3.9 |
| 2027 | 3.68 | 7.63 | 0 | 2.9 – 4.46 |
| 2029 | 3.77 | 8.87 | 0 | 2.69 – 4.85 |
| 2034 | 3.85 | 11.05 | 0 | 2.13 – 5.56 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.23· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.7bn | 9.3bn | 6.1bn | 7.3bn – 8.1bn |
| 2028 | 9.3bn | 12.2bn | 6.5bn | 8.5bn – 10.2bn |
| 2030 | 11bn | 14.7bn | 7.3bn | 9.6bn – 12.4bn |
| 2035 | 15.1bn | 20.3bn | 10bn | 11.9bn – 18.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 4.53 | 5.96 | 3.09 | 4.24 – 4.82 |
| 2029 | 3.58 | 6.07 | 1.09 | 3.03 – 4.14 |
| 2031 | 2.64 | 5.85 | 0 | 1.93 – 3.34 |
| 2036 | 0.27 | 4.82 | 0 | 0 – 1.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.72· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-08 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MNG · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 57.0851 + -6.6433·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.519 over 20 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 5.47 | 2026 (43.7) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.8372 + 0.0373·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MNG?indicator= · API docs
