Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Mongolia: forward projections across 15 macro indicators, horizons 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Mongolia's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.65 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 11.77 | 2025 (6.84) |
Latest observed-2.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -7.21 | 9.21 | -23.63 | -10.68 – -3.75 |
| 2028 | -4.84 | 23.6 | -30 | -10.88 – 1.19 |
| 2030 | -2.47 | 30 | -30 | -10.16 – 5.22 |
| 2035 | 3.46 | 30 | -30 | -7.69 – 14.61 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±5.01typical miss · 1 realized · 228% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed68.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 70.2 | 81.85 | 60.11 | 67.41 – 72.99 |
| 2028 | 74.47 | 94.64 | 56.98 | 68.01 – 80.92 |
| 2030 | 78.73 | 104.78 | 56.16 | 68.71 – 88.75 |
| 2035 | 89.39 | 126.23 | 57.47 | 69.83 – 108.96 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead69.37· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.74typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed25.4bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.3bn | 30.2bn | 24.9bn | 26.5bn – 28.2bn |
| 2028 | 32.2bn | 37.1bn | 28bn | 29.8bn – 34.6bn |
| 2030 | 37.1bn | 43.4bn | 31.6bn | 32.9bn – 41.3bn |
| 2035 | 49.2bn | 58.1bn | 41.5bn | 39bn – 59.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead33.4bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.8bntypical miss · 1 realized · 12% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.84(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.24 | 12 | 2.23 | 6.16 – 8.32 |
| 2028 | 8.4 | 12 | -0.28 | 6.32 – 10.47 |
| 2030 | 9.55 | 12 | -1.65 | 6.64 – 12 |
| 2035 | 12 | 12 | -3.84 | 7.03 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.85· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.04typical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7.1k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.6k | 8.4k | 6.9k | 7.4k – 7.8k |
| 2028 | 8.8k | 10.3k | 7.6k | 8.2k – 9.5k |
| 2030 | 10.1k | 11.9k | 8.5k | 8.9k – 11.2k |
| 2035 | 13.1k | 15.7k | 10.9k | 10.4k – 15.9k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±965.72typical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed44.1(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 40.3 | 59.59 | 18.05 | 36.69 – 43.92 |
| 2028 | 30.91 | 64.31 | 0 | 24.29 – 37.53 |
| 2030 | 21.52 | 64.64 | 0 | 13.16 – 29.87 |
| 2035 | 0 | 60.98 | 0 | 0 – 9.54 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.13· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.8typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed62.64(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 62.98 | 76.44 | 49.52 | 59.91 – 66.05 |
| 2028 | 63.67 | 86.99 | 40.35 | 57.05 – 70.3 |
| 2030 | 64.36 | 94.46 | 34.26 | 54.6 – 74.11 |
| 2035 | 66.08 | 108.65 | 23.51 | 48.99 – 83.17 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead62.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±8.36typical miss · 1 realized · 13% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed8.61(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10 | 19.75 | -0.44 | 7.68 – 12.32 |
| 2028 | 13.37 | 30.25 | -4.72 | 8.99 – 17.75 |
| 2030 | 16.74 | 38.53 | -5 | 10.57 – 22.91 |
| 2035 | 25.17 | 50 | -5 | 14.31 – 36.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead11.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.02(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 27.82 | 34.18 | 22.3 | 26.46 – 29.17 |
| 2028 | 27.56 | 38.58 | 18.01 | 24.66 – 30.46 |
| 2030 | 27.3 | 41.53 | 14.97 | 23.09 – 31.52 |
| 2035 | 26.66 | 46.78 | 9.22 | 19.52 – 33.8 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead27.99· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.92typical miss · 1 realized · 3% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3.6m | 3.7m | 3.4m | 3.4m – 3.7m |
| 2028 | 3.6m | 3.8m | 3.4m | 3.3m – 3.9m |
| 2030 | 3.7m | 3.8m | 3.5m | 3.2m – 4.1m |
| 2035 | 3.8m | 4m | 3.6m | 3m – 4.6m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±76.7ktypical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.03 | 15 | -4 | 5.08 – 8.98 |
| 2028 | 10.1 | 15 | -9 | 6.43 – 13.77 |
| 2030 | 13.18 | 15 | -10 | 8.01 – 15 |
| 2035 | 15 | 15 | -10 | 6.79 – 15 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.82· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.29typical miss · 1 realized · 22% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.5bn | 7.8bn | 5.1bn | 6.2bn – 6.8bn |
| 2028 | 7.9bn | 10.2bn | 5.5bn | 7.1bn – 8.6bn |
| 2030 | 9.3bn | 12.3bn | 6.3bn | 8.1bn – 10.5bn |
| 2035 | 12.7bn | 17bn | 8.5bn | 10.1bn – 15.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.2bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.15(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.11 | 6.43 | 1.8 | 3.69 – 4.53 |
| 2028 | 4.07 | 8.07 | 0.06 | 3.26 – 4.88 |
| 2030 | 4.05 | 9.22 | 0 | 2.93 – 5.16 |
| 2035 | 4.03 | 11.34 | 0 | 2.26 – 5.79 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.23· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.66typical miss · 1 realized · 16% MAPE
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed7bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 7.7bn | 9.3bn | 6.1bn | 7.3bn – 8.1bn |
| 2028 | 9.3bn | 12.2bn | 6.5bn | 8.5bn – 10.2bn |
| 2030 | 11bn | 14.7bn | 7.3bn | 9.6bn – 12.4bn |
| 2035 | 15.1bn | 20.3bn | 10bn | 11.9bn – 18.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead7.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.23(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.81 | 6.98 | 2.64 | 4.4 – 5.22 |
| 2028 | 3.96 | 7.72 | 0.2 | 3.2 – 4.73 |
| 2030 | 3.12 | 7.97 | 0 | 2.12 – 4.11 |
| 2035 | 1 | 7.86 | 0 | 0 – 2.21 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead4.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.19typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MNG · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: CPI inflation ≈ 57.1628 + -6.6333·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.594 over 17 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 12.5bn | 2023 (46.7) |
| 2027 | 12.1bn | 2024 (44.1) |
| 2028 | 12.3bn | 2025 (45) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 4764015740.6224 + 166538768.5386·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.552 over 20 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 75.5 | 2023 (20.3bn) |
| 2027 | 82.47 | 2024 (23.8bn) |
| 2028 | 85.63 | 2025 (25.4bn) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 34.7124 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.512 over 19 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.55 | 2025 (45) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 3.9054 + 0.0365·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Govt debt / GDP by 3 years (it moves withthe target; r = 0.505 over 17 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Govt debt / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -18.55 | 2023 (46.7) |
| 2027 | -19.46 | 2024 (44.1) |
| 2028 | -19.15 | 2025 (45) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -34.8358 + 0.3487·Govt debt / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MNG?indicator= · API docs
