Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Northern Mariana Islands: forward projections across 6 macro indicators, horizons 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2030, 2032, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Northern Mariana Islands's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.581 over 19 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.2bn | 2022 (16.64) |
Latest observed22.26(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 13.75 | 46.89 | 0 | 8.79 – 18.7 |
| 2025 | 0 | 57.4 | 0 | 0 – 8.25 |
| 2027 | 0 | 74.11 | 0 | 0 – 10.67 |
| 2032 | 0 | 104.81 | 0 | 0 – 15.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.82· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.1bn(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.1bn | 1.6bn | 627.6m | 995.7m – 1.2bn |
| 2025 | 1bn | 1.9bn | 252.8m | 871m – 1.2bn |
| 2027 | 978.8m | 2.1bn | 0 | 763.3m – 1.2bn |
| 2032 | 859.4m | 2.5bn | 0 | 527.8m – 1.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed16.64(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 12 | 12 | -10 | 2.57 – 12 |
| 2025 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -4.57 – 12 |
| 2027 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -9.61 – 12 |
| 2032 | 12 | 12 | -10 | -10 – 12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead12· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed23.8k(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 23.6k | 34k | 14.5k | 22k – 25.2k |
| 2025 | 23.3k | 41.3k | 7.6k | 20k – 26.5k |
| 2027 | 22.9k | 46.3k | 2.7k | 18.3k – 27.5k |
| 2032 | 22.1k | 55.1k | 0 | 14.7k – 29.6k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead24.8k· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed70.89(2022)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 70.62 | 88.89 | 52.35 | 66.69 – 74.55 |
| 2025 | 70.07 | 101.71 | 38.43 | 61.86 – 78.28 |
| 2027 | 69.52 | 110.36 | 28.68 | 57.71 – 81.33 |
| 2032 | 68.15 | 125.91 | 10.39 | 48.4 – 87.89 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead68.78· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed43.5k(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 43.8k | 45.9k | 41.9k | 42.4k – 45.1k |
| 2028 | 43k | 45k | 41.1k | 39.8k – 46.2k |
| 2030 | 42.2k | 44.2k | 40.3k | 37.4k – 47k |
| 2035 | 40.1k | 42k | 38.4k | 31.8k – 48.5k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead42.9k· skill-weighted across models
Track record±968.64typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MNP · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1020270710.8084 + 9382644.5855·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 2 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.539 over 19 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 1.45 | 2021 (914m) |
| 2024 | -4.56 | 2022 (1.1bn) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 31.6146 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MNP?indicator= · API docs
