Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Mozambique: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2034, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Mozambique's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Unemployment by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.793 over 34 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.6bn | 2025 (6.63) |
Latest observed-41(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -11.44 | 11.7 | -30 | -16.34 – -6.53 |
| 2028 | -7.31 | 30 | -30 | -15.85 – 1.22 |
| 2030 | -3.19 | 30 | -30 | -14.01 – 7.63 |
| 2035 | 7.12 | 30 | -30 | -8.96 – 23.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-30· skill-weighted across models
Track record±29.56typical miss · 1 realized · 72% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed41.38(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 41.94 | 54.78 | 30.82 | 39.44 – 44.45 |
| 2028 | 43.07 | 65.3 | 23.8 | 37.83 – 48.31 |
| 2030 | 44.19 | 72.89 | 19.32 | 36.56 – 51.83 |
| 2035 | 47.01 | 87.59 | 11.84 | 33.69 – 60.33 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead41.72· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.15typical miss · 1 realized · 5% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.3bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 23.3bn | 26.2bn | 20.9bn | 22.6bn – 24.1bn |
| 2028 | 25.9bn | 30.8bn | 21.6bn | 23.9bn – 27.8bn |
| 2030 | 28.4bn | 34.8bn | 22.8bn | 25.2bn – 31.6bn |
| 2035 | 34.7bn | 43.7bn | 26.8bn | 27.5bn – 41.8bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.8bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.4bntypical miss · 1 realized · 6% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-0.52(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -2.2 | 3.47 | -7.12 | -3.18 – -1.22 |
| 2028 | -5.85 | 3.98 | -10 | -7.77 – -3.93 |
| 2030 | -9.5 | 3.18 | -10 | -10 – -6.63 |
| 2035 | -10 | 7.94 | -10 | -10 – -5.41 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead0.29· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.2typical miss · 1 realized · 320% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed626.91(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 643.3 | 731.94 | 566.47 | 622.45 – 664.14 |
| 2028 | 684.29 | 837.83 | 551.22 | 633.17 – 735.41 |
| 2030 | 725.28 | 923.5 | 553.49 | 642.93 – 807.63 |
| 2035 | 827.76 | 1.1k | 584.82 | 656.05 – 999.47 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead680.24· skill-weighted across models
Track record±29.3typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed91(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 87.32 | 108.1 | 63.35 | 82.73 – 91.92 |
| 2028 | 81.37 | 117.36 | 39.85 | 71.93 – 90.82 |
| 2030 | 75.42 | 121.89 | 21.81 | 62.24 – 88.61 |
| 2035 | 60.55 | 126.26 | 0 | 40.75 – 80.35 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead89.88· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3.68typical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed55.72(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 52.77 | 75.47 | 30.07 | 48.45 – 57.09 |
| 2028 | 46.86 | 86.18 | 7.54 | 38.6 – 55.13 |
| 2030 | 40.96 | 91.72 | 0 | 29.91 – 52 |
| 2035 | 26.19 | 97.98 | 0 | 11.02 – 41.37 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead53.66· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.33typical miss · 1 realized · 8% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed4.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.81 | 10.74 | -1.55 | 3.41 – 6.2 |
| 2028 | 5.21 | 15.49 | -5 | 2.68 – 7.74 |
| 2030 | 5.62 | 18.88 | -5 | 2.23 – 9.01 |
| 2035 | 6.63 | 25.39 | -5 | 1.41 – 11.85 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.79typical miss · 1 realized · 14% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed35.6m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 35.4m | 37m | 33.8m | 34.3m – 36.5m |
| 2028 | 36.5m | 38.2m | 34.9m | 33.8m – 39.2m |
| 2030 | 37.6m | 39.3m | 35.9m | 33.3m – 41.8m |
| 2035 | 40.3m | 42.2m | 38.6m | 32m – 48.7m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead37.7m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.5mtypical miss · 1 realized · 4% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-3.81(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -4.74 | 0.26 | -8.5 | -5.45 – -4.04 |
| 2028 | -7.04 | 1.64 | -10 | -8.46 – -5.61 |
| 2030 | -9.33 | 1.87 | -10 | -10 – -7.18 |
| 2035 | -10 | 5.83 | -10 | -10 – -6.42 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-3.55· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.56typical miss · 1 realized · 67% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.5bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.5bn | 4.6bn | 2.5bn | 3.3bn – 3.8bn |
| 2027 | 3.6bn | 5.4bn | 1.8bn | 3.2bn – 4.1bn |
| 2029 | 3.7bn | 6bn | 1.4bn | 3.1bn – 4.3bn |
| 2034 | 3.9bn | 7.1bn | 655.9m | 2.8bn – 5bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.5bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.44(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.5 | 6.06 | 0.94 | 3.05 – 3.94 |
| 2027 | 3.56 | 8 | 0 | 2.71 – 4.41 |
| 2029 | 3.59 | 9.32 | 0 | 2.43 – 4.76 |
| 2034 | 3.62 | 11.72 | 0 | 1.8 – 5.44 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.36· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed3.8bn(2024)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 3.9bn | 4.9bn | 2.8bn | 3.7bn – 4.1bn |
| 2027 | 4bn | 5.8bn | 2.2bn | 3.6bn – 4.5bn |
| 2029 | 4.2bn | 6.5bn | 1.8bn | 3.5bn – 4.9bn |
| 2034 | 4.5bn | 7.8bn | 1.2bn | 3.3bn – 5.7bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead3.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed6.63(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 6.96 | 8.05 | 5.87 | 6.68 – 7.24 |
| 2028 | 7.63 | 9.52 | 5.74 | 6.97 – 8.28 |
| 2030 | 8.3 | 10.74 | 5.86 | 7.26 – 9.33 |
| 2035 | 9.97 | 13.42 | 6.52 | 7.84 – 12.09 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead6.74· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MOZ · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ -3150444962.6377 + 4032217581.2221·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves withthe target; r = 0.765 over 35 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 5.63 | 2025 (22.3bn) |
Fit: Unemployment ≈ 1.9144 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.714 over 27 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 57.76 | 2023 (-10.6) |
| 2027 | 58.33 | 2024 (-10.9) |
| 2028 | 63.33 | 2025 (-13.5) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 37.3948 + -1.9208·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by Unemployment by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.604 over 32 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Unemployment in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -1.67 | 2023 (6.66) |
| 2027 | -1.68 | 2024 (6.67) |
| 2028 | -1.59 | 2025 (6.63) |
Fit: Real GDP growth ≈ 14.3273 + -2.4014·Unemployment. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.528 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -29.08 | 2023 (20.9bn) |
| 2027 | -30.78 | 2024 (22.8bn) |
| 2028 | -30.39 | 2025 (22.3bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -9.6211 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MOZ?indicator= · API docs
