Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Malawi: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2021, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2028, 2030, 2035. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Malawi's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.836 over 43 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.3bn | 2023 (-12.1) |
Latest observed-12.2(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -14.01 | -9.83 | -18.19 | -15.09 – -12.93 |
| 2028 | -14.43 | -7.19 | -21.66 | -16.59 – -12.26 |
| 2030 | -14.84 | -5.5 | -24.19 | -17.94 – -11.75 |
| 2035 | -15.88 | -2.67 | -29.1 | -21.12 – -10.65 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-12.12· skill-weighted across models
Track record±1.81typical miss · 1 realized · 15% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.45 | 13.05 | 8.2 | 9.92 – 10.99 |
| 2028 | 10.07 | 14.57 | 6.16 | 8.94 – 11.19 |
| 2030 | 9.68 | 15.49 | 4.64 | 8.07 – 11.28 |
| 2035 | 8.7 | 16.93 | 1.58 | 6.14 – 11.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.23typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 15.3bn | 18.5bn | 12.5bn | 14.6bn – 15.9bn |
| 2028 | 16.3bn | 21.9bn | 11.4bn | 14.9bn – 17.8bn |
| 2030 | 17.4bn | 24.6bn | 11.1bn | 15.1bn – 19.6bn |
| 2035 | 20bn | 30.2bn | 11.1bn | 15.6bn – 24.4bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.1bn· skill-weighted across models
Track record±3bntypical miss · 1 realized · 17% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1.85 | 6.85 | -2.49 | 0.98 – 2.71 |
| 2028 | 1.76 | 10.42 | -5.74 | 0.23 – 3.29 |
| 2030 | 1.68 | 12 | -8.01 | -0.32 – 3.68 |
| 2035 | 1.47 | 12 | -10 | -1.4 – 4.34 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.59· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.75typical miss · 1 realized · 29% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed671.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 675.77 | 825.9 | 545.66 | 647.09 – 704.46 |
| 2028 | 693.86 | 953.88 | 468.5 | 629.6 – 758.12 |
| 2030 | 711.94 | 1k | 421.01 | 615.02 – 808.86 |
| 2035 | 757.15 | 1.2k | 345.71 | 579.49 – 934.81 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead754.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±63.98typical miss · 1 realized · 9% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed78(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 103.85 | 112.51 | 93.85 | 100.63 – 107.07 |
| 2028 | 118.34 | 133.35 | 101.02 | 109.58 – 127.09 |
| 2030 | 132.83 | 152.21 | 110.47 | 117.75 – 147.91 |
| 2035 | 169.06 | 196.46 | 137.45 | 133.99 – 204.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead81.03· skill-weighted across models
Track record±25.85typical miss · 1 realized · 33% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.5 | 30.73 | 26.27 | 27.62 – 29.38 |
| 2028 | 28 | 31.85 | 24.14 | 25.92 – 30.07 |
| 2030 | 27.49 | 32.47 | 22.51 | 24.37 – 30.61 |
| 2035 | 26.23 | 33.28 | 19.19 | 20.79 – 31.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.47typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 26.23 | 37.17 | 14.52 | 23.39 – 29.08 |
| 2028 | 20.9 | 39.84 | 0.61 | 15.7 – 26.1 |
| 2030 | 15.57 | 40.02 | -5 | 8.9 – 22.23 |
| 2035 | 2.23 | 36.81 | -5 | -5 – 10.26 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead19.47· skill-weighted across models
Track record±4.33typical miss · 1 realized · 20% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 22.1m | 23.1m | 21.1m | 21.4m – 22.8m |
| 2028 | 22.7m | 23.8m | 21.7m | 21m – 24.4m |
| 2030 | 23.3m | 24.4m | 22.3m | 20.7m – 26m |
| 2035 | 24.8m | 26m | 23.8m | 19.7m – 30m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.4m· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.7mtypical miss · 1 realized · 11% MAPE
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.76 | 15 | -10 | -3.66 – 2.14 |
| 2028 | -0.16 | 15 | -10 | -5.2 – 4.89 |
| 2030 | 0.44 | 15 | -10 | -6.09 – 6.97 |
| 2035 | 1.95 | 15 | -10 | -7.49 – 11.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.49typical miss · 1 realized · 231% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed594.5m(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 585.8m | 860.1m | 311.6m | 534.5m – 637.2m |
| 2023 | 560.7m | 1bn | 85.6m | 461m – 660.3m |
| 2025 | 535.5m | 1.1bn | 0 | 398.8m – 672.2m |
| 2030 | 472.5m | 1.3bn | 0 | 264.2m – 680.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead592.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2.01 | 2.96 | 1.05 | 1.83 – 2.19 |
| 2023 | 2.12 | 3.77 | 0.46 | 1.76 – 2.47 |
| 2025 | 2.17 | 4.31 | 0.03 | 1.67 – 2.67 |
| 2030 | 2.21 | 5.24 | 0 | 1.4 – 3.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.89· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed594.5m(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 585.2m | 858m | 312.4m | 534.1m – 636.3m |
| 2023 | 558.2m | 1bn | 85.8m | 459.1m – 657.4m |
| 2025 | 531.3m | 1.1bn | 0 | 395.4m – 667.1m |
| 2030 | 463.9m | 1.3bn | 0 | 257.6m – 670.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead591.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.93 | 5.43 | 4.43 | 4.77 – 5.08 |
| 2028 | 4.64 | 5.5 | 3.78 | 4.28 – 4.99 |
| 2030 | 4.35 | 5.46 | 3.24 | 3.83 – 4.87 |
| 2035 | 3.63 | 5.2 | 2.05 | 2.81 – 4.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-10-31 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MWI · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2027 | 12.1bn | 2024 (-14.5) |
| 2028 | 11.5bn | 2025 (-13.8) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 1086326043.9532 + -757615770.087·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.807 over 45 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -16.16 | 2025 (14.9bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -1.5548 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.661 over 24 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 63.02 | 2025 (1.89) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 74.3597 + -6.0176·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MWI?indicator= · API docs
