Forecast
Forward projections from the prediction engine — baseline plus an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, per macro indicator. These are PROJECTIONS, not observations: generated from observed history, never a guarantee. A country we hold no projections for is shown honestly.
Forecast
Need it as JSON? GET /api/v1/forecast/country/{iso3}.
Malawi: forward projections across 14 macro indicators, horizons 2021, 2023, 2025, 2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, 2030, 2031, 2035, 2036. These are projections, not observations — each carries an optimistic/pessimistic band and a confidence interval, anchored against the latest observed value where one is held.
Nowcast
Each indicator nowcast from its strongest leading series — inferable from observations already in hand.
For each indicator, Malawi's strongest leading series is fit by ordinary least squares over their shared observed history, then the leader's already-observed recent values project the target — so the next year or two is inferable from data already in hand. These are nowcasts from a leading correlation: correlation, not causation, and not a guaranteed forecast.
Led by Current account / GDP by 3 years (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.849 over 44 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Current account / GDP in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 15.6bn | 2024 (-18.5) |
Latest observed-15.4(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -15.86 | -11.69 | -20.04 | -16.97 – -14.76 |
| 2029 | -16.79 | -9.56 | -24.02 | -19.07 – -14.51 |
| 2031 | -17.72 | -8.39 | -27.04 | -21.04 – -14.39 |
| 2036 | -20.03 | -6.84 | -30 | -25.93 – -14.13 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-15.67· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed10.65(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 10.45 | 13.05 | 8.2 | 9.92 – 10.99 |
| 2028 | 10.07 | 14.57 | 6.16 | 8.94 – 11.19 |
| 2030 | 9.68 | 15.49 | 4.64 | 8.07 – 11.28 |
| 2035 | 8.7 | 16.93 | 1.58 | 6.14 – 11.27 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead10.51· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.23typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed14.9bn(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 19.2bn | 23bn | 16bn | 18.5bn – 20bn |
| 2029 | 22bn | 28.5bn | 16.4bn | 20.2bn – 23.8bn |
| 2031 | 24.7bn | 33.1bn | 17.5bn | 21.8bn – 27.7bn |
| 2036 | 31.6bn | 43.5bn | 21.4bn | 25.1bn – 38.2bn |
Blended 1-yr-ahead18.9bn· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.89(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 2.26 | 5.7 | -0.71 | 1.65 – 2.87 |
| 2029 | 2.39 | 8.34 | -2.77 | 1.28 – 3.5 |
| 2031 | 2.52 | 10.2 | -4.14 | 1.04 – 4 |
| 2036 | 2.84 | 12 | -6.58 | 0.57 – 5.1 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead2.1· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed671.51(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 758.18 | 910.33 | 626.32 | 727.94 – 788.43 |
| 2029 | 821.92 | 1.1k | 593.53 | 751.09 – 892.74 |
| 2031 | 885.65 | 1.2k | 590.81 | 774.3 – 997 |
| 2036 | 1k | 1.5k | 628.02 | 820.51 – 1.3k |
Blended 1-yr-ahead747.18· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed74.5(2026)· IMF DataMapper API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 80.04 | 93.53 | 64.46 | 76.68 – 83.39 |
| 2029 | 91.11 | 114.48 | 64.13 | 83.14 – 99.07 |
| 2031 | 102.18 | 132.35 | 67.35 | 89.36 – 114.99 |
| 2036 | 129.85 | 172.53 | 80.61 | 102.51 – 157.19 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead77.87· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.75(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 28.5 | 30.73 | 26.27 | 27.62 – 29.38 |
| 2028 | 28 | 31.85 | 24.14 | 25.92 – 30.07 |
| 2030 | 27.49 | 32.47 | 22.51 | 24.37 – 30.61 |
| 2035 | 26.23 | 33.28 | 19.19 | 20.79 – 31.68 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead28.74· skill-weighted across models
Track record±0.47typical miss · 1 realized · 2% MAPE
Method: linear_trend; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed28.37(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 22.97 | 35.58 | 9.46 | 19.81 – 26.13 |
| 2029 | 17.41 | 39.25 | -5 | 11.74 – 23.09 |
| 2031 | 11.85 | 40.05 | -5 | 4.66 – 19.05 |
| 2036 | -2.04 | 37.83 | -5 | -5 – 7.12 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead22.97· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed22.2m(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 24.8m | 26m | 23.7m | 24m – 25.6m |
| 2029 | 27.6m | 29.7m | 25.7m | 25.5m – 29.6m |
| 2031 | 30.4m | 33m | 27.9m | 26.9m – 33.8m |
| 2036 | 37.3m | 41.1m | 33.8m | 29.6m – 45.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead25.4m· skill-weighted across models
Method: exponential_smoothing; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed-1.08(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | -0.76 | 15 | -10 | -3.66 – 2.14 |
| 2028 | -0.16 | 15 | -10 | -5.2 – 4.89 |
| 2030 | 0.44 | 15 | -10 | -6.09 – 6.97 |
| 2035 | 1.95 | 15 | -10 | -7.49 – 11.38 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead-1.05· skill-weighted across models
Track record±2.49typical miss · 1 realized · 231% MAPE
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 7y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed594.5m(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 585.8m | 860.1m | 311.6m | 534.5m – 637.2m |
| 2023 | 560.7m | 1bn | 85.6m | 461m – 660.3m |
| 2025 | 535.5m | 1.1bn | 0 | 398.8m – 672.2m |
| 2030 | 472.5m | 1.3bn | 0 | 264.2m – 680.9m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead592.9m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed1.91(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 2.01 | 2.96 | 1.05 | 1.83 – 2.19 |
| 2023 | 2.12 | 3.77 | 0.46 | 1.76 – 2.47 |
| 2025 | 2.17 | 4.31 | 0.03 | 1.67 – 2.67 |
| 2030 | 2.21 | 5.24 | 0 | 1.4 – 3.03 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead1.89· skill-weighted across models
Method: mean_reversion; lookback 10y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed594.5m(2020)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 585.2m | 858m | 312.4m | 534.1m – 636.3m |
| 2023 | 558.2m | 1bn | 85.8m | 459.1m – 657.4m |
| 2025 | 531.3m | 1.1bn | 0 | 395.4m – 667.1m |
| 2030 | 463.9m | 1.3bn | 0 | 257.6m – 670.1m |
Blended 1-yr-ahead591.6m· skill-weighted across models
Method: weighted_composite; lookback 8y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Latest observed5.07(2025)· World Bank Indicators API
| Year | Baseline | Optimistic | Pessimistic | Conf. band |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4.93 | 5.43 | 4.43 | 4.77 – 5.08 |
| 2028 | 4.64 | 5.5 | 3.78 | 4.28 – 4.99 |
| 2030 | 4.35 | 5.46 | 3.24 | 3.83 – 4.87 |
| 2035 | 3.63 | 5.2 | 2.05 | 2.81 – 4.45 |
Blended 1-yr-ahead5· skill-weighted across models
Method: linear_trend; lookback 6y; horizon 1y; confidence 80%
Reliability badges show each indicator's best model skill— how much it beats a naive last-value forecast, measured out-of-sample on that series' own observed history (backtested one-step-ahead). A track record, not a guarantee of future accuracy.
Generated by the prediction engine (model prediction-engine-v1) on 2026-08-02 from observed history. Projections, not observations — never a guarantee of future values.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/forecast/country/MWI · Country page → · Full brief → · API docs
| 2028 | 14bn | 2025 (-16.5) |
| 2029 | 13.2bn | 2026 (-15.4) |
Fit: GDP (current US$) ≈ 927280774.854 + -793693842.523·Current account / GDP. Correlation, not causation.
Led by GDP (current US$) by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.836 over 46 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by GDP (current US$) in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | -20.76 | 2026 (18.2bn) |
Fit: Current account / GDP ≈ -1.2239 + 0·GDP (current US$). Correlation, not causation.
Led by Real GDP growth by 1 year (it moves inversely tothe target; r = -0.674 over 25 obs).
| Year | Nowcast | Implied by Real GDP growth in |
|---|---|---|
| 2027 | 60.92 | 2026 (2.2) |
Fit: Govt debt / GDP ≈ 74.0658 + -5.9772·Real GDP growth. Correlation, not causation.
Machine-readable: GET /api/v1/nowcast/country/MWI?indicator= · API docs
